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Working Paper
Bias in Local Projections
Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Herbst, Edward (2020-01-31)
Local projections (LPs) are a popular tool in applied macroeconomic research. We survey the related literature and find that LPs are often used with very small samples in the time dimension. With small sample sizes, given the high degree of persistence in most macroeconomic data, impulse responses estimated by LPs can be severely biased. This is true even if the right-hand-side variable in the LP is iid, or if the data set includes a large cross-section (i.e., panel data). We derive a simple expression to elucidate the source of the bias. Our expression highlights the interdependence between ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-010

Speech
Economics at the Federal Reserve banks
Dudley, William (2014-01-04)
Remarks at the American Economic Association 2014 Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Speech , Paper 128

Journal Article
Human Capital and Development
Manuelli, Rodolfo E. (2015)
Perhaps no question has attracted as much attention in the economics literature as ?Why are some countries richer than others?? In this article, the author revisits the ?development problem? and provides some estimates of the importance of human capital in accounting for cross-country differences in output per worker. His results suggest that human capital has a central role in determining the wealth of nations and that the quality of human capital varies systematically with the level of development.
Review , Volume 97 , Issue 3

Journal Article
The global saving glut and the fall in U.S. real interest rates: A 15-year retrospective
Barsky, Robert; Easton, Matthew (2021-03-31)
The authors revisit Ben Bernanke’s global saving glut (GSG) hypothesis from 2005—which links low long-term real interest rates in the United States to excess saving in a number of non-Western countries, including, but not limited to, China. Using an analytical framework and empirical data, they find that the ability of the GSG hypothesis to explain the fall in long-term real rates between 2002 and 2006 is likely much greater than its ability to account for the further fall in these rates from the Great Recession onward.
Economic Perspectives , Issue EP-2021-1 , Pages 15

Working Paper
Database of global economic indicators (DGEI): a methodological note
Grossman, Valerie; Mack, Adrienne; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2013-12-31)
The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is aimed at standardizing and disseminating world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization. The purpose of DGEI is to offer a broad perspective on how economic developments around the world influence the U.S. economy with a wide selection of indicators. DGEI is automated within an Excel-VBA and E-views framework for the processing and aggregation of multiple country time series. It includes a core sample of 40 countries with available indicators and broad ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 166

Newsletter
Some inflation scenarios for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco (2021-04-13)
The American Rescue Plan Act (ARP) signed into law on March 11, 2021, authorized approximately $1.9 trillion in federal government spending. ARP is widely expected to boost economic growth over the next two to three years—and significantly so early on. The upswing in growth is likely to increase resource pressures and therefore consumer price inflation as well. The potential for this channel to raise inflation substantially has attracted the attention of economic commentators, including Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence Summers. But the magnitudes and persistence of the possible increases in ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 453 , Pages 8

Working Paper
A High-Frequency Measure of Income Inequality
Hogan, Marie; Jackson, Laura E.; Owyang, Michael T. (2024-08-30)
To identify shocks in VARs using short-run sign or exclusion restrictions, the highest-frequency data possible is usually preferred. For income inequality, there is tension between high frequency and high quality. Annual datasets that survey large numbers of people provide high-quality estimates of income. Higher frequency surveys generally provide a sparser sampling of individual income. Some previous studies have used the the higher frequency data, presumably to match the frequency necessary to identify the shock. Using data obtained from the higher frequency, lower respondant surveys might ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-021

Report
Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests
Droste, Michael; Mina, Michael J.; Atkeson, Andrew; Stock, James H. (2020-11-09)
We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the fiscal, macroeconomic, and health benefits of rapid SARS-CoV-2 screening testing programs far exceed their costs, with the ratio of economic benefits to costs typically in the range of 2-15 (depending on program details), not counting the monetized value of lives saved. Unless the screening test is highly specific, however, the signal value of the screening test alone is low, leading to concerns about adherence. Confirmatory testing increases the net economic ...
Staff Report , Paper 616

Working Paper
Variation in the Phillips Curve Relation across Three Phases of the Business Cycle
Verbrugge, Randal; Ashley, Richard (2019-05-03)
We use recently developed econometric tools to demonstrate that the Phillips curve unemployment rate?inflation rate relationship varies in an economically meaningful way across three phases of the business cycle. The first (?bust phase?) relationship is the one highlighted by Stock and Watson (2010): A sharp reduction in inflation occurs as the unemployment rate is rising rapidly. The second (?recovery phase?) relationship occurs as the unemployment rate subsequently begins to fall; during this phase, inflation is unrelated to any conventional unemployment gap. The final (?overheating phase?) ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-09

Journal Article
Understanding State and Local Government Spending over the Business Cycle
Bi, Huixin; Gulati, Chaitri; Traum, Nora (2023-06-01)
State and local (S&L) government spending is essential for providing public services and infrastructure and accounts for more than 10 percent of GDP. How this sector responds during a recession can play an important role in shaping the overall economic recovery.Huixin Bi, Chaitri Gulati, and Nora Traum document how S&L government expenditures have evolved over the business cycle since the 1950s. They find that from 1950 to the mid-1980s, S&L spending followed no uniform pattern after recessions: spending was sometimes procyclical (declining during recessions) and sometimes countercyclical ...
Economic Review , Volume vol. 108 , Issue no. 3 , Pages 15

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