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Newsletter
Some inflation scenarios for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco (2021-04-13)
The American Rescue Plan Act (ARP) signed into law on March 11, 2021, authorized approximately $1.9 trillion in federal government spending. ARP is widely expected to boost economic growth over the next two to three years—and significantly so early on. The upswing in growth is likely to increase resource pressures and therefore consumer price inflation as well. The potential for this channel to raise inflation substantially has attracted the attention of economic commentators, including Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence Summers. But the magnitudes and persistence of the possible increases in ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 453 , Pages 8

Working Paper
A High-Frequency Measure of Income Inequality
Hogan, Marie; Jackson, Laura E.; Owyang, Michael T. (2024-08-30)
To identify shocks in VARs using short-run sign or exclusion restrictions, the highest-frequency data possible is usually preferred. For income inequality, there is tension between high frequency and high quality. Annual datasets that survey large numbers of people provide high-quality estimates of income. Higher frequency surveys generally provide a sparser sampling of individual income. Some previous studies have used the the higher frequency data, presumably to match the frequency necessary to identify the shock. Using data obtained from the higher frequency, lower respondant surveys might ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-021

Report
Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests
Droste, Michael; Mina, Michael J.; Atkeson, Andrew; Stock, James H. (2020-11-09)
We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the fiscal, macroeconomic, and health benefits of rapid SARS-CoV-2 screening testing programs far exceed their costs, with the ratio of economic benefits to costs typically in the range of 2-15 (depending on program details), not counting the monetized value of lives saved. Unless the screening test is highly specific, however, the signal value of the screening test alone is low, leading to concerns about adherence. Confirmatory testing increases the net economic ...
Staff Report , Paper 616

Working Paper
Variation in the Phillips Curve Relation across Three Phases of the Business Cycle
Verbrugge, Randal; Ashley, Richard (2019-05-03)
We use recently developed econometric tools to demonstrate that the Phillips curve unemployment rate?inflation rate relationship varies in an economically meaningful way across three phases of the business cycle. The first (?bust phase?) relationship is the one highlighted by Stock and Watson (2010): A sharp reduction in inflation occurs as the unemployment rate is rising rapidly. The second (?recovery phase?) relationship occurs as the unemployment rate subsequently begins to fall; during this phase, inflation is unrelated to any conventional unemployment gap. The final (?overheating phase?) ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-09

Journal Article
Understanding State and Local Government Spending over the Business Cycle
Bi, Huixin; Gulati, Chaitri; Traum, Nora (2023-06-01)
State and local (S&L) government spending is essential for providing public services and infrastructure and accounts for more than 10 percent of GDP. How this sector responds during a recession can play an important role in shaping the overall economic recovery.Huixin Bi, Chaitri Gulati, and Nora Traum document how S&L government expenditures have evolved over the business cycle since the 1950s. They find that from 1950 to the mid-1980s, S&L spending followed no uniform pattern after recessions: spending was sometimes procyclical (declining during recessions) and sometimes countercyclical ...
Economic Review , Volume vol. 108 , Issue no. 3 , Pages 15

Report
RBC Methodology and the Development of Aggregate Economic Theory
Prescott, Edward C. (2016-02-08)
This essay reviews the development of neoclassical growth theory, a unified theory of aggregate economic phenomena that was first used to study business cycles and aggregate labor supply. Subsequently, the theory has been used to understand asset pricing, growth miracles and disasters, monetary economics, capital accounts, aggregate public finance, economic development, and foreign direct investment. {{p}} The focus of this essay is on real business cycle (RBC) methodology. Those who employ the discipline behind the methodology to address various quantitative questions come up with ...
Staff Report , Paper 527

Working Paper
On the Structural Interpretation of the Smets-Wouters “Risk Premium” Shock
Fisher, Jonas D. M. (2014-10-22)
This article shows that the "risk premium" shock in Smets and Wouters (2007) can be interpreted as a structural shock to the demand for safe and liquid assets such as short-term US Treasury securities. Several implications of this interpretation are discussed.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-8

Working Paper
A Local-Spillover Decomposition of the Causal Effect of U.S. Defense Spending Shocks
McCrory, Peter B.; Ebsim, Mahdi; Dupor, Bill; Conley, Timothy G.; Li, Jingchao (2020-06-16)
This paper decomposes the causal effect of government defense spending into: (i) a local (or direct) effect, and (ii) a spillover (or indirect) effect. Using state-level defense spending data, we show that a negative cross-state spillover effect explains the existing simultaneous findings of a low aggregate multiplier and a high local multiplier. We show that enlisting disaggregate data improves the precision of aggregate effect estimates, relative to using aggregate time series alone. Moreover, we compare two-step efficient GMM with two alternative moment weighting approaches used in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-014

Working Paper
Persistence Dependence in Empirical Relations: The Velocity of Money
Verbrugge, Randal J.; Ashley, Richard (2015-12-15)
Standard theory predicts persistence dependence in numerous economic relationships. (For example, persistence dependence is precisely the kind of nonlinear relationship posited in the Permanent Income Hypothesis; persistence dependence is the inverse of ?frequency dependence? in a relationship.) Until recently, however, it was challenging to achieve credible inference about persistence dependence in an economic relationship using available methods. However, recently developed econometric tools (Ashley and Verbrugge, 2009a) allow one to elegantly quantify the variation in a time-series ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1530

Working Paper
Bias in Local Projections
Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Herbst, Edward (2020-01-31)
Local projections (LPs) are a popular tool in applied macroeconomic research. We survey the related literature and find that LPs are often used with very small samples in the time dimension. With small sample sizes, given the high degree of persistence in most macroeconomic data, impulse responses estimated by LPs can be severely biased. This is true even if the right-hand-side variable in the LP is iid, or if the data set includes a large cross-section (i.e., panel data). We derive a simple expression to elucidate the source of the bias. Our expression highlights the interdependence between ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-010

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