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Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2023-01-06)
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2301

Working Paper
Has COVID Changed Consumer Payment Behavior?
Greene, Claire; Merry, Ellen A.; Stavins, Joanna (2021-10-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused large changes in consumer spending, including how people make their payments. We use data from a nationally representative survey of U.S. consumers collected before COVID in 2018 and 2019 and during COVID in 2020 to analyze changes in consumer payment behavior during the pandemic. We find that compared with their payment behavior in 2019, consumers had shifted some of their purchases from in person to online by fall 2020, significantly lowered their use of cash for purchases, and shifted their person-to-person (P2P) payments away from paper (cash and checks). ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-12

Working Paper
Inflation at the Household Level: Web Appendix
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Kaplan, Greg (2016-04-11)
This appendix contains additional results on using scanner data to estimate inflation rates at the household level. There are three sections. Section 1 shows cross-sectional distributions of Fisher and Paasche inflation rates. Section 2 shows the evolution over time of measures of dispersion of Fisher and Paasche inflation rates. Section 3 shows cross-sectional distributions of two-year inflation rates measured with Fisher and Paasche indexes.
Working Papers , Paper 732

Working Paper
Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market
Stanton, Richard; Laufer, Steven; Pence, Karen M.; Kim, You Suk; Wallace, Nancy (2018-03-08)
Non-banks originated about half of all mortgages in 2016, and 75% of mortgages insured by the FHA or VA. Both shares are much higher than those observed at any point in the 2000s. We describe in this paper how non-bank mortgage companies are vulnerable to liquidity pressures in both their loan origination and servicing activities, and we document that this sector in aggregate appears to have minimal resources to bring to bear in a stress scenario. We show how the same liquidity issues unfolded during the financial crisis, leading to the failure of many non-bank companies, requests for ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-016

Working Paper
Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data
Burke, Mary A.; Ozdagli, Ali K. (2021-08-03)
Recent research offers mixed results concerning the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption, using qualitative measures of readiness to spend. We revisit this question using survey panel data of actual spending from the U.S. between 2009 and 2012 that also allows us to control for household heterogeneity. We find that durables spending increases with expected inflation only for selected types of households while nondurables spending does not respond to expected inflation. Moreover, spending decreases with expected unemployment. These results imply a limited stimulating ...
Working Papers , Paper 2110

Report
2018 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice
Foster, Kevin; Greene, Claire; Stavins, Joanna (2020-04-01)
In 2018, U.S. consumers made 72 payments per month on average, not a significant change from 2017.As in 2017, the most frequently used payment instruments were debit cards (34 percent of alltransactions), cash (24 percent), and credit cards (23 percent). Over the 11 years of the survey, debit,cash, and credit have consistently been the most popular ways to pay. For the first time in 2018, debitcards replaced cash as the payment instrument used most frequently for in-person purchases.Some key findings about medium-term trends from 2015 to 2018 include the following:• The share of consumers ...
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2019-2

Working Paper
Confidence, Financial Literacy and Investment in Risky Assets: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Fessler, Pirmin; Hsu, Joanne W.; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2020-01-16)
We employ recent Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) microdata from the US to analyze the impacts of confidence in one’s own financial knowledge, confidence in the economy, and objective financial literacy on investment in risky financial assets (equity and bonds) on both the extensive and intensive margins. Controlling for a rich set of covariates including risk aversion, we find that objective financial literacy is positively related to investment in risky assets as well as debt securities. Moreover, confidence in own financial skills additionally increases the probability of holding risky ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-004

Working Paper
Payments Evolution from Paper to Electronic: Bill Payments and Purchases
Stavins, Joanna (2021-04-01)
Consumer payments in the United States gradually have been shifting away from paper checks for the past several years. Cash use has declined as well, although at a much slower pace. As the number of check payments has decreased, those payments have been replaced with electronic and card payments. However, the transition from paper to electronic and card payments for bills has not proceeded in the same way as the transition for purchases. Using detailed consumer survey panel data collected over nine years, we track the same respondents over time and find that consumers who reduced their check ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-5

Journal Article
Tracking Consumer Credit Trends
Xu, William; Davig, Troy A. (2016-08-23)
Troy Davig and William Xu find that a larger share of consumers with low credit scores are increasing their debt than those with high credit scores.
Macro Bulletin

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