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Working Paper
The domestic segment of global supply chains in China under state capitalism
Tang, Heiwai; Wang, Zhi; Wang, Fei (2014-06-01)
This paper proposes methods to incorporate firm heterogeneity in the standard IO-table based approach to portray the domestic segment of global value chains in a country. Using Chinese firm census data for both manufacturing and service sectors, along with constrained optimization techniques, we split the conventional IO table into sub-accounts, which are used to estimate direct and indirect domestic value added in exports of different types of firm. We find that in China, both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and small and medium domestic private enterprises (SMEs) have much higher shares of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 186

Working Paper
“Free” Internet Content: Web 1.0, Web 2.0, and the Sources of Economic Growth
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2018-05-24)
The Internet has evolved from Web 1.0, with static web pages and limited interactivity, to Web 2.0, with dynamic content that relies on user engagement. This change increased production costs significantly, but the price charged for Internet content has generally remained the same: zero. Because no transaction records the ?purchase? of this content, its value is not reflected in measured growth and productivity. To capture the contribution of the ?free? Internet, we model the provision of ?free? content as a barter transaction between the content users and the content creators, and we value ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-17

Working Paper
Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
Spiegel, Mark M.; Fernald, John G.; Hsu, Eric (2019-09-04)
We propose using imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as an alternative benchmark to gauge the accuracy of alternative Chinese indicators (including GDP) of fluctuations in economic activity. Externally-reported imports are likely to be relatively well measured, as well as free from domestic manipulation. Using principal components, we derive activity indices from a wide range of indicators and examine their fit to (trading-partner reported) imports. We choose a preferred index of eight non-GDP indicators (which we call the China Cyclical Activity Tracker, or C-CAT). ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-19

Working Paper
Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy Within the GDP and Productivity Accounts
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2017-10-23)
We develop an experimental methodology that values ?free? digital content through the lens of a production account and is consistent with the framework of the national accounts. We build upon the work in Nakamura, et al. (2016) by combining marketing- and advertising-supported content and find that the impact of ?free? digital content on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has accelerated in recent years, particularly since 2005. However, the explosion in ?free? digital content is partially offset by a decrease in ?free? print content like newspapers. Including these, real GDP growth would grow ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-37

Working Paper
Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
Zha, Tao; Higgins, Patrick C.; Chen, Kaiji (2020-05-21)
Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks tightened bank lending standards during the Great Recession. Our extensive data analysis disciplines how we introduce credit frictions in the banking sector into a macroeconomic model. The model estimation reveals that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-6

Working Paper
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
Zha, Tao; Chen, Kaiji (2015-08-01)
We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy. Second, we use the unique micro-banking data to identify and support the model's key mechanism. Third, we find that the output effect of credit supply shocks is not only economically and statistically significant but also consistent with the vector autogression evidence. Our mode estimation indicates ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2015-8

Working Paper
Climate Shocks in the Anthropocene Era: Should Net Domestic Product Reflect Climate Disasters?
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Sliker, Brian (2025-01-07)
The asset costs of natural disasters in the United States grew rapidly from 1980 to 2023, with the trend rising 4.9 percent annually in real terms to $90 billion in 2023. Much of this trend in costs is likely due to climate change and, as a loss of assets, implies a faster depreciation of real assets. We argue that the expected depreciation from these events should be included in Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC), leading to lower levels and slightly lower growth rates for Net Domestic Product (NDP) and Net Domestic Investment. We use Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood regressions to estimate ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-01

Working Paper
Demand for U.S Banknotes at Home and Abroad: A Post-Covid Update
Judson, Ruth A. (2024-03-25)
In principle, physical currency should be disappearing: payments are increasingly electronic, with new technologies emerging rapidly, and governments increasingly restrict large-denomination notes as a way to reduce crime and tax evasion. Nonetheless, demand for U.S. banknotes continues to grow, and consistently increases at times of crisis both within and outside the United States because dollar banknotes remain a desirable store of value and medium of exchange when local currency or bank deposits are inferior. Most recently, the COVID crisis resulted in historic increases in currency ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1387

Working Paper
Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
Mitchell, James; Galvão, Ana B. (2022-07-13)
Economic statistics are commonly published without estimates of their uncertainty. We conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment to assess if and how the UK public understands data uncertainty. A control group observes only the point estimate of GDP. Treatment groups are presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that GDP numbers are uncertain. Quantitative communications of data uncertainty help align the public’s subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-28R

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