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Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2004 annual revision
Gilbert, Charles; Bayard, Kimberly (2005-01)
In late 2004, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than earlier estimates indicated, whereas the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 91 , Issue Win

Report
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-11-17)
This report presents an overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, a new monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on consumers? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including but not limited to inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. There are three main goals of the survey: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. This report discusses the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 800

Journal Article
Challenges in identifying interbank loans
Copeland, Adam; Armantier, Olivier (2015-21-01)
Although interbank lending markets play a key role in the financial system, the lack of disaggregated data often makes the analysis of these markets difficult. To address this problem, recent academic papers focusing on unsecured loans of central bank reserves have employed an algorithm in an effort to identify individual transactions that are federal funds loans. The accuracy of the algorithm, however, is not known. The authors of this study conduct a formal test with U.S. data and find that the rate of false positives produced by one of these algorithms is on average 81 percent; the rate of ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 21-1 , Pages 1-17

Working Paper
Improved Estimation of Poisson Rate Distributions through a Multi-Mode Survey Design
Hitczenko, Marcin (2021-02-03)
Researchers interested in studying the frequency of events or behaviors among a population must rely on count data provided by sampled individuals. Often, this involves a decision between live event counting, such as a behavioral diary, and recalled aggregate counts. Diaries are generally more accurate, but their greater cost and respondent burden generally yield less data. The choice of survey mode, therefore, involves a potential tradeoff between bias and variance of estimators. I use a case study comparing inferences about payment instrument use based on different survey designs to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-10

Working Paper
Reaching the Hard to Reach with Intermediaries: The Kansas City Fed’s LMI Survey
Edmiston, Kelly D. (2018-07-16)
Reaching hard-to-reach individuals is a common problem in survey research. The low- and moderate-income (LMI) population, for example, is generally hard to reach. The Kansas City Fed?s Low- and Moderate-Income Survey addresses this problem by sampling a database of organizations to serve as proxies for the LMI population. In this paper, I describe why the LMI population can be hard to reach. I then explore potential problems with using a nonrandom survey sample and address the empirical validity of the Kansas City Fed?s LMI Survey. I compare results from the survey using the standard sample ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-6

Report
Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning
Zafar, Basit; Madeira, Carlos (2012)
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. ?Life-experience inflation? has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncratic information explains a nontrivial proportion of the inflation forecasts of agents. We find that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 536

Working Paper
Centrality-based Capital Allocations
Alter, Adrian; Craig, Ben R.; Raupach, Peter (2015-02-13)
This paper looks at the effect of capital rules on a banking system that is connected through correlated credit exposures and interbank lending. Keeping total capital in the system constant, the reallocation rules, which combine individual bank characteristics and interconnectivity measures of interbank lending, are to minimize a measure of systemwide losses. Using the detailed German Credit Register for estimation, we find that capital rules based on eigenvectors dominate any other centrality measure, saving about 15 percent in expected bankruptcy costs.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1501

Working Paper
Finding Needles in Haystacks: Multiple-Imputation Record Linkage Using Machine Learning
Abowd, John M.; Abramowitz, Joelle Hillary; Levenstein, Margaret Catherine; McCue, Kristin; Patki, Dhiren; Raghunathan, Trivellore; Rodgers, Ann Michelle; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Wasi, Nada; Zinsser, Dawn (2021-10-01)
This paper considers the problem of record linkage between a household-level survey and an establishment-level frame in the absence of unique identifiers. Linkage between frames in this setting is challenging because the distribution of employment across establishments is highly skewed. To address these difficulties, this paper develops a probabilistic record linkage methodology that combines machine learning (ML) with multiple imputation (MI). This ML-MI methodology is applied to link survey respondents in the Health and Retirement Study to their workplaces in the Census Business Register. ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-11

Working Paper
Identity, Identification and Identifiers : The Global Legal Entity Identifier System
Kennickell, Arthur B. (2016-11-08)
Identity is a critical concept in the rational interactions of any set of objects involving subject-object relationships. The objects must be distinguished according to some framework in order for such relationships to have meaning. In the world of economic systems, relationships such as ownership and responsibility require specific parties to be fixed with a high degree of certainty. This need is particularly strong in financial markets, where transactions can take place in nanoseconds. This paper discusses a particular framework for defining economic actors, the Global Legal Entity ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-103

Report
Personal experiences and expectations about aggregate outcomes
Zafar, Basit; Kuchler, Theresa (2015-10-01)
We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about U.S. house price changes over the next year. In addition, higher volatility of locally experienced house prices causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor ...
Staff Reports , Paper 748

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