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Working Paper
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comparative Assessment of the Utility of the Consumer Credit Panel
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Janna; DeWaard, Jack (2018-03-23)
This paper demonstrates that credit bureau data, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP), can be used to study internal migration in the United States. It is comparable to, and in some ways superior to, the standard data used to study migration, including the American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey (CPS), and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) county-to-county migration data. CCP-based estimates of migration intensity, connectivity, and spatial focusing are similar to estimates derived from the ACS, CPS, and IRS data. The CCP can ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1804

Report
Personal experiences and expectations about aggregate outcomes
Zafar, Basit; Kuchler, Theresa (2015-10-01)
We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about U.S. house price changes over the next year. In addition, higher volatility of locally experienced house prices causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor ...
Staff Reports , Paper 748

Report
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-11-17)
This report presents an overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, a new monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on consumers? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including but not limited to inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. There are three main goals of the survey: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. This report discusses the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 800

Journal Article
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Zafar, Basit; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Armantier, Olivier; Topa, Giorgio (2017-23-02)
The authors present an overview of the New York Fed?s Survey of Consumer Expectations, a monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on respondents? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. It has three main goals: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. The authors discuss the origins of the survey, the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 23-2 , Pages 51-72

Working Paper
Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound
Datta, Deepa Dhume; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Kwon, Hannah; Vigfusson, Robert J. (2018-08-17)
From late 2008 to 2017, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to macroeconomic news. We provide empirical evidence and theoretical justification that these changes resulted from nominal interest rates being constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). Although the ZLB alters the economic environment in theory, supportive empirical evidence has been lacking. Our paper provides clear evidence of the ZLB altering the economic environment, with implications for the effectiveness of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-058

Working Paper
Improved Estimation of Poisson Rate Distributions through a Multi-Mode Survey Design
Hitczenko, Marcin (2021-02-03)
Researchers interested in studying the frequency of events or behaviors among a population must rely on count data provided by sampled individuals. Often, this involves a decision between live event counting, such as a behavioral diary, and recalled aggregate counts. Diaries are generally more accurate, but their greater cost and respondent burden generally yield less data. The choice of survey mode, therefore, involves a potential tradeoff between bias and variance of estimators. I use a case study comparing inferences about payment instrument use based on different survey designs to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-10

Working Paper
Constructing Applicants from Loan-Level Data: A Case Study of Mortgage Applications
Elzayn, Hadi; Freyaldenhoven, Simon; Shin, Minchul (2025-02-04)
We develop a clustering-based algorithm to detect loan applicants who submit multiple applications (“cross-applicants”) in a loan-level dataset without personal identifiers. A key innovation of our approach is a novel evaluation method that does not require labeled training data, allowing us to optimize the tuning parameters of our machine learning algorithm. By applying this methodology to Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, we create a unique dataset that consolidates mortgage applications to the individual applicant level across the United States. Our preferred specification ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-05

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2004 annual revision
Gilbert, Charles; Bayard, Kimberly (2005-01)
In late 2004, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than earlier estimates indicated, whereas the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 91 , Issue Win

Journal Article
Indexes of the foreign exchange value of the dollar
Loretan, Mico (2005-01)
At the end of 1998, the staff of the Federal Reserve Board introduced a new set of indexes of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar. The staff made the changeover, from indexes that had been used since the late 1970s, for two reasons. First, five of the ten currencies in the staff's previous main index of the dollar's exchange value were about to be replaced by a single new currency, the euro. Second, developments in international trade since the late 1970s called for a broadening of the scope of the staff's dollar indexes and a closer alignment of the currency weights with U.S. trade ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 91 , Issue Win

Working Paper
Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity
Radler, Tyler; Kurz, Christopher J.; Decker, Ryan A.; Crane, Leland D.; Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian; Cajner, Tomaz (2018-01-17)
We show that high-frequency private payroll microdata can help forecast labor market conditions. Payroll employment is perhaps the most reliable real-time indicator of the business cycle and is therefore closely followed by policymakers, academia, and financial markets. Government statistical agencies have long served as the primary suppliers of information on the labor market and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That said, sources of ?big data? are becoming increasingly available through collaborations with private businesses engaged in commercial activities that record ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-005

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