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Working Paper
The perils of working with Big Data and a SMALL framework you can use to avoid them
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-03-02)
The use of “Big Data” to explain fluctuations in the broader economy or guide the business decisions of a firm is now so commonplace that in some instances it has even begun to rival more traditional government statistics and business analytics. Big data sources can very often provide advantages when compared to these more traditional data sources, but with these advantages also comes the potential for pitfalls. We lay out a framework called SMALL that we have developed in order to help interested parties as they navigate the big data minefield. Based on a set of five questions, the SMALL ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-35

Working Paper
Bill of Lading Data in International Trade Research with an Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Flaaen, Aaron B.; Haberkorn, Flora; Lewis, Logan T.; Monken, Anderson; Pierce, Justin R.; Rhodes, Rosemary; Yi, Madeleine (2021-10-15)
We evaluate high-frequency bill of lading data for its suitability in international trade research. These data offer many advantages over both other publicly accessible official trade data and confidential datasets, but they also have clear drawbacks. We provide a comprehensive overview for potential researchers to understand these strengths and weaknesses as these data become more widely available. Drawing on the strengths of the data, we analyze three aspects of trade during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we show how the high-frequency data capture features of the within-month collapse ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-066

Report
Evaluating the quality of fed funds lending estimates produced from Fedwire payments data
Skeie, David R.; Kovner, Anna (2013-09-01)
A number of empirical analyses of interbank lending rely on indirect inferences from individual interbank transactions extracted from payments data using algorithms. In this paper, we conduct an evaluation to assess the ability of identifying overnight U.S. fed funds activity from Fedwire payments data. We find evidence that the estimates extracted from the data are statistically significantly correlated with banks' fed funds borrowing as reported on the FRY-9C. We find similar associations for fed funds lending, although the correlations are lower. To be conservative, we believe that the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 629

Working Paper
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Janna; DeWaard, Jack (2019-06-21)
We introduce and provide the first comprehensive comparative assessment of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) as a valuable and underutilized data set for studying internal migration within the United States. Relative to other data sources on US internal migration, the CCP permits highly detailed cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of migration, both temporally and geographically. We compare cross-sectional and longitudinal estimates of migration from the CCP to similar estimates derived from the American Community Survey, the Current Population ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-04R

Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2004 annual revision
Gilbert, Charles; Bayard, Kimberly (2005-01)
In late 2004, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than earlier estimates indicated, whereas the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 91 , Issue Win

Working Paper
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
Zha, Tao; Chen, Kaiji (2015-08-01)
We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy. Second, we use the unique micro-banking data to identify and support the model's key mechanism. Third, we find that the output effect of credit supply shocks is not only economically and statistically significant but also consistent with the vector autogression evidence. Our mode estimation indicates ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2015-8

Working Paper
Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound
Kwon, Hannah; Datta, Deepa Dhume; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Vigfusson, Robert J. (2018-08-17)
From late 2008 to 2017, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to macroeconomic news. We provide empirical evidence and theoretical justification that these changes resulted from nominal interest rates being constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). Although the ZLB alters the economic environment in theory, supportive empirical evidence has been lacking. Our paper provides clear evidence of the ZLB altering the economic environment, with implications for the effectiveness of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-058

Working Paper
The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?
Meyer, Brent; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bryan, Michael F. (2014-12-01)
The purpose of this paper is to answer the three questions in the title. Using a large monthly survey of businesses, we investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat greater heterogeneity of expectations that we attribute to the idiosyncratic cost structure firms face. We also show that firm inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-27

Working Paper
Nonresponse Imputations and Related Measurement Issues in the CPI for Shelter
Loewenstein, Lara; Montag, Hugh; Verbrugge, Randal J. (2026-05-28)
Shelter is the largest component of US consumer price index (CPI) inflation; therefore, the accuracy of shelter inflation is critical for the accuracy of overall CPI inflation. Nonresponse in the BLS Housing Survey, which underpins the measurement of CPI shelter inflation, has increased since 2000 and now represents roughly 40 percent of total observations. Missing rent data are currently imputed using a class-mean approach based on rent tier, potentially resulting in biased imputations, as we find that nonresponse is correlated with factors beyond rent tier. We study alternative simple ...
Working Papers , Paper 26-13

Working Paper
Who Remains Unbanked in the United States and Why?
Calem, Paul S.; Henderson, Chris; Wang, Jenna (2025-01-16)
This paper conducts a detailed exploration of the factors associated with unbanked status among U.S. households and how these relationships evolved between 2015 and 2019. Biennial FDIC household survey data on bank account ownership and household characteristics, combined with state-level variables, are examined with application of both fixed effects and multilevel modeling. The analysis finds that even as rising incomes drove a decline in the unbanked percentage of the population over this period, income remained the most significant differentiator, with strong associations with race and ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-02

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