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Discussion Paper
Estimating the output gap in real time
Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2013-12)
I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output ? the output gap ? satisfies Okun?s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.
Staff Papers , Issue Dec

Working Paper
The perils of working with Big Data and a SMALL framework you can use to avoid them
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-03-02)
The use of “Big Data” to explain fluctuations in the broader economy or guide the business decisions of a firm is now so commonplace that in some instances it has even begun to rival more traditional government statistics and business analytics. Big data sources can very often provide advantages when compared to these more traditional data sources, but with these advantages also comes the potential for pitfalls. We lay out a framework called SMALL that we have developed in order to help interested parties as they navigate the big data minefield. Based on a set of five questions, the SMALL ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-35

Working Paper
Database of global economic indicators (DGEI): a methodological note
Grossman, Valerie; Mack, Adrienne; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2013-12-31)
The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is aimed at standardizing and disseminating world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization. The purpose of DGEI is to offer a broad perspective on how economic developments around the world influence the U.S. economy with a wide selection of indicators. DGEI is automated within an Excel-VBA and E-views framework for the processing and aggregation of multiple country time series. It includes a core sample of 40 countries with available indicators and broad ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 166

Speech
Remarks at the fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop
McAndrews, James J. (2014-02-04)
Remarks at the Fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Speech , Paper 129

Working Paper
CardSim: A Bayesian Simulator for Payment Card Fraud Detection Research
Allen, Jeffrey (2025-02-28)
Payment fraud has been high in recent years, and as criminals gain access to capability-enhancing generative AI tools, there is a growing need for innovative fraud detection research. However, the pace, diversity, and reproducibility of such research are inhibited by the dearth of publicly available payment transaction data. A few payment simulation methodologies have been developed to help narrow the payment transaction data gap without compromising important data privacy and security expectations. While these simulation approaches have enabled research advancements, more work is needed to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-017

Working Paper
Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"
Li, Phillip; Chang, Andrew C. (2015-09-04)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-83

Working Paper
Safeguarding Research: A Review of Economics Journals’ Preservation Policies for Published Code and Data Files
Butler, Courtney; Currier, Brett; Lillard, Kira (2021-12-03)
For many years, economics researchers have discussed the importance of sharing codeand data files to ensure replicability. The discussion, however, rarely includes questions aboutlong-term access to those files. This paper looks in-depth at the code and data policies from topeconomics journals to understand the guidance provided to researchers regarding data sharingand asks if that guidance supports preservation of code and data files for access and use, longinto the future. We used content analysis to review journal policies from 184 economics journals.We discovered that while most journals ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-14

Working Paper
Speaking for Herself: Changing Gender Roles in Survey Response
Minhas, Sabrina; Oksol, Amy (2019-02-28)
Among married and cohabiting couples, the percentage of female respondents has increased substantially in the PSID (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) from 9% in 1968 to 60% in 2015. This shift in gender composition has taken place despite a formal policy that historically designated male heads of household as respondents. We use this shift as a case study to explore which characteristics are associated with women responding to the PSID and how different respondent gender compositions may affect data quality. First, we find that women are increasingly less likely to respond as their husband?s ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-1

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows
Monken, Anderson; Gopinath, Munisamy; Batarseh, Feras A. (2020-08-20)
International trade policies remain in the spotlight given the recent rethink on the benefits of globalization by major economies. Since trade critically affects employment, production, prices and wages, understanding and predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for decision making within and across countries. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques allow for better predictions and associations to inform policy decisions. Moreover, we outline contextual AI methods to decipher trade ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1296

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