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Discussion Paper
Estimating the output gap in real time
Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2013-12)
I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output ? the output gap ? satisfies Okun?s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.
Staff Papers , Issue Dec

Working Paper
The perils of working with Big Data and a SMALL framework you can use to avoid them
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-03-02)
The use of “Big Data” to explain fluctuations in the broader economy or guide the business decisions of a firm is now so commonplace that in some instances it has even begun to rival more traditional government statistics and business analytics. Big data sources can very often provide advantages when compared to these more traditional data sources, but with these advantages also comes the potential for pitfalls. We lay out a framework called SMALL that we have developed in order to help interested parties as they navigate the big data minefield. Based on a set of five questions, the SMALL ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-35

Working Paper
Database of global economic indicators (DGEI): a methodological note
Grossman, Valerie; Mack, Adrienne; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2013-12-31)
The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is aimed at standardizing and disseminating world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization. The purpose of DGEI is to offer a broad perspective on how economic developments around the world influence the U.S. economy with a wide selection of indicators. DGEI is automated within an Excel-VBA and E-views framework for the processing and aggregation of multiple country time series. It includes a core sample of 40 countries with available indicators and broad ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 166

Speech
Remarks at the fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop
McAndrews, James J. (2014-02-04)
Remarks at the Fifth Data Management Strategies and Technologies Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Speech , Paper 129

Working Paper
CardSim: A Bayesian Simulator for Payment Card Fraud Detection Research
Allen, Jeffrey (2025-02-28)
Payment fraud has been high in recent years, and as criminals gain access to capability-enhancing generative AI tools, there is a growing need for innovative fraud detection research. However, the pace, diversity, and reproducibility of such research are inhibited by the dearth of publicly available payment transaction data. A few payment simulation methodologies have been developed to help narrow the payment transaction data gap without compromising important data privacy and security expectations. While these simulation approaches have enabled research advancements, more work is needed to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-017

Working Paper
Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"
Li, Phillip; Chang, Andrew C. (2015-09-04)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-83

Working Paper
Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19
Couture, Victor; Green, Allison; Handbury, Jessie; Dingel, Jonathan; Williams, Kevin (2020-07-09)
Tracking human activity in real time and at fine spatial scale is particularly valuable during episodes such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we discuss the suitability of smartphone data for quantifying movement and social contact. We show that these data cover broad sections of the US population and exhibit movement patterns similar to conventional survey data. We develop and make publicly available a location exposure index that summarizes county-to-county movements and a device exposure index that quantifies social contact within venues. We use these indices to document how ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 35

Report
Fed Transparency and Policy Expectation Errors: A Text Analysis Approach
Fischer, Eric; McCaughrin, Rebecca; Prazad, Saketh; Vandergon, Mark (2023-11-01)
This paper seeks to estimate the extent to which market-implied policy expectations could be improved with further information disclosure from the FOMC. Using text analysis methods based on large language models, we show that if FOMC meeting materials with five-year lagged release dates—like meeting transcripts and Tealbooks—were accessible to the public in real time, market policy expectations could substantially improve forecasting accuracy. Most of this improvement occurs during easing cycles. For instance, at the six-month forecasting horizon, the market could have predicted as much ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1081

Working Paper
The perils of working with Big Data and a SMALL framework you can use to avoid them
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-12-22)
The use of “Big Data” to explain fluctuations in the broader economy or guide the business decisions of a firm is now so commonplace that in some instances it has even begun to rival more traditional government statistics and business analytics. Big data sources can very often provide advantages when compared to these more traditional data sources, but with these advantages also comes the potential for pitfalls. We lay out a framework called SMALL that we have developed in order to help interested parties as they navigate the big data minefield. Based on a set of five questions, the SMALL ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-35

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