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Working Paper
Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Stagnation in Latin America
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2013-02-15)
The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980's had a major and long lasting effect on per-capita consumption: its level in 2005 was not that different from that in 1980. This paper studies the long stagnation in per-capita consumption that followed the crisis, and its relationship with recessions and sovereign risk, using a small open economy real business cycle model with complete markets, endogenous borrowing limits (limited commitment), endogenous capital accumulation, and domestic productivity and international interest rate shocks. I find that the model does an excellent job at explaining ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-37

Working Paper
Impulse-Based Computation of Policy Counterfactuals
Hebden, James; Winkler, Fabian (2021-07-15)
We propose an efficient procedure to solve for policy counterfactuals in linear models with occasionally binding constraints. The procedure does not require knowledge of the structural or reduced-form equations of the model, its state variables, or its shock processes. Forecasts of the variables entering the policy problem, and impulse response functions of these variables to anticipated policy shocks under an arbitrary policy, constitute sufficient information to construct valid counterfactuals. We show how to compute solutions for instrument rules and optimal discretionary and commitment ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-042

Working Paper
Benchmarking Global Optimizers
Arnoud, Antoine; Guvenen, Fatih; Kleineberg, Tatjana (2023-12-15)
We benchmark six global optimization algorithms by comparing their performance on challenging multidimensional test functions as well as on a method of simulated moments estimation of a panel data model of earnings dynamics. Five of the algorithms are from the popular NLopt open-source library: (i) Controlled Random Search with local mutation (CRS), (ii) Improved Stochastic Ranking Evolution Strategy (ISRES), (iii) Multi-Level Single-Linkage (MLSL), (iv) Stochastic Global Optimization (StoGo), and (v) Evolutionary Strategy with Cauchy distribution (ESCH). The sixth algorithm is TikTak, which ...
Working Papers , Paper 801

Report
An anatomy of U.S. personal bankruptcy under Chapter 13
Eraslan, Hulya; Koşar, Gizem; Li, Wenli; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2016-01-01)
We build a structural model of Chapter 13 bankruptcy that captures salient features of personal bankruptcy under Chapter 13. We estimate our model using a novel data set that we construct from bankruptcy court dockets recorded in Delaware in 2001 and 2002. Our estimation results highlight the importance of debtor?s choice of repayment plan length for Chapter 13 outcomes under the restrictions imposed by the bankruptcy law. We use the estimated model to conduct policy experiments to evaluate the impact of more stringent provisions of Chapter 13 that impose additional restrictions on the length ...
Staff Reports , Paper 764

Working Paper
Revisiting Risky Money
Nesmith, Travis D. (2024-11-26)
Risk was first incorporated into monetary aggregation over thirty-five years ago,using a stochastic version of the workhorse money-in-the-utility-function model.Nevertheless, the mathematical foundations of this stochastic model remain shaky.To firm the foundations, this paper employs a slightly richer probability conceptthan standard Borel-measurability, which enables me to prove the existence of awell-behaved solution and to derive stochastic Euler equations. This measurabilityapproach is long-established albeit less common in economics, possibly because the derivation of stochastic Euler ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-090

Working Paper
Housing Choices and Their Implications for Consumption Heterogeneity
De Francisco, Eva (2019-05-29)
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1249

Working Paper
Efficient Computation with Taste Shocks
Gordon, Grey (2019-09-11)
Taste shocks result in nondegenerate choice probabilities, smooth policy functions, continuous demand correspondences, and reduced computational errors. They also cause significant computational cost when the number of choices is large. However, I show that, in many economic models, a numerically equivalent approximation may be obtained extremely efficiently. If the objective function has increasing differences (a condition closely tied to policy function monotonicity) or is concave in a discrete sense, the proposed algorithms are O(n log n) for n states and n choice--a drastic improvement ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-15

Working Paper
Mortgages as Recursive Contracts
Marquis, Milton H.; Krainer, John (2004-09-01)
Mortgages are one-sided contracts under which the borrower may terminate the contract at any time, while the lender must commit to honoring the terms of the contract throughout its life. There are two aspects to this feature of the contract that are modeled in this paper. The first is that the borrower may choose between buying a house or renting. Given these alternatives, a contract between a household and a lender makes home ownership feasible, and provides insurance to the household against fluctuating rental payments. The second is that once in a contract, the household may terminate the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2003-03

Working Paper
Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Benchimol, Jonathan (2020-05-28)
Uncertainty about an economy’s regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and the United States including Markov-switching volatility shocks, we show that these shocks were significant during the global financial crisis compared with periods of calm. We describe how U.S. shocks from both the real economy and financial markets affected the euro area economy and how bond ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 386

Journal Article
Optimal Capital Taxation and Precautionary Savings
Chen, Yunmin; Chien, YiLi; Yang, C.C. (2021-07-01)
There are multiple reasons to motivate the role of capital taxation in the heterogenous-agent incomplete-markets (HAIM) model. One is the production inefficiency caused by precautionary savings. The other is the wealth redistribution role played by capital taxation. To distinguish between these two reasons, this article uses an analytical tractable HAIM model with a degenerated distribution of wealth while preserving the role of precautionary savings. The degenerated wealth distribution shuts down the distributional role played by capital taxation. Our results show that, with no role to play ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , Pages 333-350

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