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Discussion Paper
What Is Corporate Bond Market Distress?
Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or (2022-06-29)
Corporate bonds are a key source of funding for U.S. non-financial corporations and a key investment security for insurance companies, pension funds, and mutual funds. Distress in the corporate bond market can thus both impair access to credit for corporate borrowers and reduce investment opportunities for key financial sub-sectors. In a February 2021 Liberty Street Economics post, we introduced a unified measure of corporate bond market distress, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI), then followed up in early June 2022 with a look at how corporate bond market functioning evolved ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220629

Report
The Law of One Price in Equity Volatility Markets
Van Tassel, Peter (2020-12-01)
This paper documents law of one price violations in equity volatility markets. While tightly linked by no-arbitrage restrictions, the prices of VIX futures exhibit significant deviations relative to their option-implied upper bounds. Static arbitrage opportunities occur when the prices of VIX futures violate their bounds. The deviations widen during periods of market stress and predict the returns of VIX futures. A relative value trading strategy based on the deviation measure earns a large Sharpe ratio and economically significant alpha-to-margin. There is evidence that systematic risk and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 953

Journal Article
The equity risk premium: a review of models
Rosa, Carlo; Duarte, Fernando M. (2015)
The authors estimate the equity risk premium (ERP)?the expected return on stocks in excess of the risk-free rate?by combining information from twenty models for the period 1960-2013. They begin their analysis by categorizing the models into five classes: trailing historical mean, dividend discount, cross-sectional estimation, regression analysis using valuation ratios or macroeconomic variables, and surveys. They find that an optimal weighted average of all models places the one-year-ahead ERP in June 2012 at 12.2 percent, close to levels reached in the mid- and late 1970s, when the ERP was ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 2 , Pages 39-57

Working Paper
Asian financial linkage: macro-finance dissonance
Takahashi, Koji; Fujiwara, Ippei (2011)
How are Asian financial markets interlinked and how are they linked to markets in developed countries? What is the main driver of fluctuations in Asian financial markets as well as real economic activities? In order to answer these questions, we estimate the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) and gauge the degree of interactions in both financial markets and real economic activities among Asian economies.> ; We first show that the degree of the international spillover in stock markets is like cookie-cutter products, namely, uniform, irrespective of the groups of countries, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 92

Report
Option-implied term structures
Vogt, Erik (2014-12-01)
This paper proposes a nonparametric sieve regression framework for pricing the term structure of option spanning portfolios. The framework delivers closed-form, nonparametric option pricing and hedging formulas through basis function expansions that grow with the sample size. Novel confidence intervals quantify term structure estimation uncertainty. The framework is applied to estimating the term structure of variance risk premia and finds that a short-run component dominates market excess return predictability. This finding is inconsistent with existing asset pricing models that seek to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 706

Working Paper
The Effects of Volatility on Liquidity in the Treasury Market
Meldrum, Andrew C.; Sokolinskiy, Oleg (2023-05-05)
We study the relationship between volatility and liquidity in the market for on-the-run Treasury securities using a novel framework for quantifying price impact. We show that at times of relatively low volatility, marginal trades that go with the flow of existing trades tend to have a smaller price impact than trades that go against the flow. However, this difference tends to diminish at times of high volatility, indicating that the perceived information content of going against the flow is less when volatility is high. We also show that market participants executing trades aggressively using ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-028

Working Paper
The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks
Gospodinov, Nikolay; Jamali, Ibrahim (2014-08-01)
In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant and asymmetric response of stock returns and volatility to monetary policy shocks. Although the increase in the volatility risk premium, futures-trading volume, and leverage appear to contribute to a short-term increase in volatility, the longer-term dynamics of volatility are dominated by monetary policy's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-14

Report
Risk-Free Rates and Convenience Yields Around the World
Van Tassel, Peter; Diamond, William (2022-09-01)
We infer risk-free rates from index option prices to estimate safe asset convenience yields in ten G-11 currencies. Countries' convenience yields increase linearly with the level of their interest rates, with U.S. convenience yields being the fifth largest. During financial crises, convenience yields grow, but the difference between U.S. and foreign convenience yields generally does not. Covered interest parity (CIP) deviations using our option-implied rates are roughly the same size between the U.S. and each other country. A model where convenience yields depend on domestic financial ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1032

Working Paper
Term Structure Analysis with Big Data
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Andreasen, Martin M. (2017-09-15)
Analysis of the term structure of interest rates almost always takes a two-step approach. First, actual bond prices are summarized by interpolated synthetic zero-coupon yields, and second, a small set of these yields are used as the source data for further empirical examination. In contrast, we consider the advantages of a one-step approach that directly analyzes the universe of bond prices. To illustrate the feasibility and desirability of the onestep approach, we compare arbitrage-free dynamic term structure models estimated using both approaches. We also provide a simulation study showing ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-21

Report
Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models
Moench, Emanuel; Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K. (2011)
We propose regression-based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross-sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The estimators explicitly allow for time-varying prices of risk, time-varying betas, and serially dependent pricing factors. Our approach nests the Fama-MacBeth two-pass estimator as a special case. We provide asymptotic multistage standard errors necessary to conduct inference for asset pricing test. We ...
Staff Reports , Paper 493

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