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Working Paper
The influence of gender and income on the household division of financial responsibility
Hitczenko, Marcin (2016-10-17)
This paper studies how gender and income dynamics influence the division of responsibility in two-adult households for various activities, including those tasks directly related to financial decisionmaking. The data, from the 2012 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice, consist of the respondents? categorical self-assessments of their individual levels of responsibility for various tasks. A data construct, in which some households have both adults participate in the survey, is exploited to develop a penalized latent variable model that accounts for systemic response errors. The data reveal that ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-20

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings
Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander W. (2022-11-23)
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to bound the true response without directly addressing the identification challenge. A leading example of this practice is the literature on the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. We prove by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general, whether the data generating process is a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2223

Working Paper
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
Chen, Kaiji; Zha, Tao (2015-08-01)
We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy. Second, we use the unique micro-banking data to identify and support the model's key mechanism. Third, we find that the output effect of credit supply shocks is not only economically and statistically significant but also consistent with the vector autogression evidence. Our mode estimation indicates ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2015-8

Working Paper
The Effects of Volatility on Liquidity in the Treasury Market
Meldrum, Andrew C.; Sokolinskiy, Oleg (2023-05-05)
We study the relationship between volatility and liquidity in the market for on-the-run Treasury securities using a novel framework for quantifying price impact. We show that at times of relatively low volatility, marginal trades that go with the flow of existing trades tend to have a smaller price impact than trades that go against the flow. However, this difference tends to diminish at times of high volatility, indicating that the perceived information content of going against the flow is less when volatility is high. We also show that market participants executing trades aggressively using ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-028

Working Paper
The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure
Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Caldara, Dario; Arias, Jonas E. (2015-03-12)
Following Leeper, Sims, and Zha (1996), we identify monetary policy shocks in SVARs by restricting the systematic component of monetary policy. In particular, we impose sign and zero restrictions only on the monetary policy equation. Since we do not restrict the response of output to a monetary policy shock, we are agnostic in Uhlig's (2005) sense. But, in contrast to Uhlig (2005), our results support the conventional view that a monetary policy shock leads to a decline in output. Hence, our results show that the contractionary effects of monetary policy shocks do not hinge on questionable ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1131

Working Paper
Assessing U.S. Aggregate Fluctuations Across Time and Frequencies
Matthes, Christian; Lubik, Thomas A.; Verona, Fabio (2019-02-28)
We study the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in the time and frequency domain. For this purpose, we decompose U.S. time series into various frequency components. This allows us to identify a set of stylized facts: GDP growth is largely a high-frequency phenomenon whereby inflation and nominal interest rates are characterized largely by low-frequency components. In contrast, unemployment is a medium-term phenomenon. We use these decompositions jointly in a structural VAR where we identify monetary policy shocks using a sign restriction approach. We find that monetary policy shocks ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-6

Working Paper
Usual Shocks in our Usual Models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo (2022-09-06)
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges associated with the model's usual shocks. Realizations of the Covid shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic. The model attributes a crucial role to the novel Covid shock in explaining the large contraction in output in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-39

Working Paper
Inference Based On Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Time Restrictions
Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Shin, Minchul; Waggoner, Daniel F. (2024-03-25)
We propose an approach for Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions. The linchpin of our approach is a class of rotation-invariant time-varying SVARs in which the prior and posterior densities of any sequence of structural parameters belonging to the class are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the sequence. Our methodology is new to the literature. In contrast to existing algorithms for inference based on sign restrictions, our algorithm is the first to draw from a uniform distribution over the sequences of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-4

Report
Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses
Groen, Jan J. J.; Nattinger, Michael; Noble, Adam I. (2020-09-04)
We propose measures of ﬁnancial market stress for forty-six countries and regions across the world. Our measures indicate that worldwide ﬁnancial market stresses rose signiﬁcantly in March following the widespread economic shutdowns in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, hardly anywhere in the world did these March peaks in ﬁnancial stresses reach those seen during the trough of the 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis. Since March, ﬁnancial market conditions normalized rapidly with ﬁnancial market stresses around average levels. We also show that our ﬁnancial stress measures ...
Staff Reports , Paper 940

Discussion Paper
Tracking the COVID-19 Economy with the Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
Mertens, Karel; Lewis, Daniel J.; Stock, James H. (2020-08-04)
At the end of March, we launched the Weekly Economic Index (WEI) as a tool to monitor changes in real activity during the pandemic. The rapid deterioration in economic conditions made it important to assess developments as soon as possible, rather than waiting for monthly and quarterly data to be released. In this post, we describe how the WEI has measured the effects of COVID-19. So far in 2020, the WEI has synthesized daily and weekly data to measure GDP growth remarkably well. We document this performance, and we offer some guidance on evaluating the WEI’s forecasting abilities based on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200804

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