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Working Paper
Evidence on the Production of Cognitive Achievement from Moving to Opportunity
Aliprantis, Dionissi (2017-05-12)
This paper performs a subgroup analysis on the effect of receiving a Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing voucher on test scores. I find evidence of heterogeneity by number of children in the household in Boston, gender in Chicago, and race/ethnicity in Los Angeles. To study the mechanisms driving voucher effect heterogeneity, I develop a generalized Rubin Causal Model and propose an estimator to identify transition-specific Local Average Treatment Effects (LATEs) of school and neighborhood quality. Although I cannot identify such LATEs with the MTO data, the analysis demonstrates that ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1707

Working Paper
Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century
Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun (2014-04-07)
How much have the dynamics of U.S. time series and in particular the transmission of innovations to monetary policy instruments changed over the last century? The answers to these questions that this paper gives are "a lot" and "probably less than you think," respectively. We use vector autoregressions with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to tackle these questions. In our analysis we use variables that both influenced monetary policy and in turn were influenced by monetary policy itself, including bond market data (the difference between long-term and short-term nominal ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-10

Working Paper
Can We Take the “Stress” Out of Stress Testing? Applications of Generalized Structural Equation Modeling to Consumer Finance
Canals-Cerda, Jose J. (2021-01-29)
Financial firms, and banks in particular, rely heavily on complex suites of interrelated statistical models in their risk management and business reporting infrastructures. Statistical model infrastructures are often developed using a piecemeal approach to model building, in which different components are developed and validated separately. This type of modeling framework has significant limitations at each stage of the model management life cycle, from development and documentation to validation, production, and redevelopment. We propose an empirical framework, spurred by recent developments ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-01

Working Paper
Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation
Georgiadis, Georgios; Schumann, Ben (2019-09-04)
Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy coordination. Unfortunately, the literature has not reached a consensus on which pricing paradigm best describes the data. Against this background, we test for the empirical relevance of dominant-currency pricing (DCP). Specifically, we first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 368

Working Paper
Estimating Impulse Response Functions When the Shock Series Is Observed
Choi, Chi-Young; Chudik, Alexander (2019-03-04)
We compare the finite sample performance of a variety of consistent approaches to estimating Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) in a linear setup when the shock of interest is observed. Although there is no uniformly superior approach, iterated approaches turn out to perform well in terms of root mean-squared error (RMSE) in diverse environments and sample sizes. For smaller sample sizes, parsimonious specifications are preferred over full specifications with all ?relevant? variables.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 353

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates
Zhu, Feng; Georgiadis, Georgios (2019-05-05)
We assess the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. To do so, we estimate Taylor-rule type monetary policy reaction functions, relating the local policy rate to real-time forecasts of domestic fundamentals, global variables, as well as the base-country policy rate. In the regressions, we explore variations in the sensitivity of local to base-country policy rates across different degrees of exchange rate flexibility and capital controls. We find that the data are in general consistent with the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 363

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