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Series:Working Papers  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 

Working Paper
Oil prices and aggregate economic activity: a study of eight OECD countries
AUTHORS: Brown, Stephen P. A.; David B. Oppedahl; Mine K. Yücel
DATE: 1996

Working Paper
The role of tax policy in the boom/bust cycle of the Texas construction sector
AUTHORS: Petersen, D'Ann M.; Phillips, Keith R.; Mine Yücel
DATE: 1994

Working Paper
Did residential electricity rates fall after retail competition? a dynamic panel analysis
A key selling point for the restructuring of electricity markets was the promise of lower prices, that competition among independent power suppliers would lower electricity prices to retail customers. There is not much consensus in earlier studies on the effects of electricity deregulation, particularly for residential customers. Part of the reason for not finding a consistent link with deregulation and lower prices was that the removal of the transitional price caps led to higher prices. In addition, the timing of the removal of price caps coincided with rising fuel prices, which were passed on to consumers in a competitive market. Using a dynamic panel model, we analyze the effect of participation rates, fuel costs, market size, a rate cap and a switch to competition for 16 states and the District of Columbia. We find that an increase in participation rates, price controls, a larger market, and high shares of hydro in electricity generation lower retail prices, while increases in natural gas and coal prices increase rates. The effects of a competitive retail electricity market are mixed across states, but generally appear to lower prices in states with high participation and raise prices in states that have little customer participation.
AUTHORS: Swadley, Adam; Yücel, Mine
DATE: 2011

Working Paper
Are net discount rates stationary?: some further evidence
Gamber and Sorensen provide evidence suggesting that the net discount ratio experienced a level shift in the mean between 1977 and 1981. If such a shift occurred, the nonlinearity in the data shows up as a failure to reject the null hypothesis that a unit root is present; that is, the series is I(1). In this reply, evidence is presented-the Phillips-Perron test and a univariate version of the Stock-Watson q-test-suggesting that the net discount ratio is stationary. Hence, the mean is constant. In addition, if one extends the analysis to include the 1989 through 1993 period, the net discount ratio appears to be reverting.
AUTHORS: Haslag, Joseph H.; Nieswiadomy, Michael; Slottje, D.J.
DATE: 1993

Working Paper
Theoretical macroeconomic modelling and qualitative specifications of the bond market
AUTHORS: Russell, William R.; Haslag, Joseph H.
DATE: 1988

Working Paper
What drives commodity price booms and busts?
What drives commodity price booms and busts? We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of commodity demand shocks, commodity supply shocks, and inventory demand shocks on real commodity prices. In particular, we analyze a new data set of price and production levels for 12 agricultural, metal, and soft commodities from 1870 to 2013. We identify differences in the type of shock driving prices of the various types of commodities and relate these differences to commodity types which reflect differences in long-run elasticities of supply and demand. Our results show that demand shocks strongly dominate supply shocks.
AUTHORS: Jacks, David S.; Stuermer, Martin
DATE: 2016-11-01

Working Paper
On the selective hedging of bank assets with Treasury bill futures contracts
AUTHORS: Koppenhaver, Gary D.
DATE: 1982

Working Paper
A theory of targeted search
We present a theory of targeted search, where people with a finite information processing capacity search for a match. Our theory explicitly accounts for both the quantity and the quality of matches. It delivers a unique equilibrium that resides in between the random matching and the directed search outcomes. The equilibrium that emerges from this middle ground is inefficient relative to the constrained Pareto allocation. Our theory encompasses the outcomes of the random matching and the directed search literature as limiting cases.
AUTHORS: Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Tutino, Antonella; Cheremukhin, Anton A.
DATE: 2014-02-13

Working Paper
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in gross state product. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes, particularly general business activity and growth rate of orders, are useful in predicting changes in Texas employment.
AUTHORS: Canas, Jesus; Kerr, Emily
DATE: 2014-12-01

Working Paper
The minimum wage and Latino workers
Because Latinos comprise a large and growing share of the low-skilled labor force in the U.S., Latinos may be disproportionately affected by minimum wage laws. We compare the effects of minimum wage laws on employment and earnings among Hispanic immigrants and natives compared with non-Hispanic whites and blacks. We focus on adults who have not finished high school and on teenagers, groups likely to earn low wages. Conventional economic theory predicts that higher minimum wages lead to higher hourly earnings among people who are employed but lower employment rates. Data from the Current Population Survey during the period 1994?2005 indicate that there is a significant disemployment effect of higher minimum wages on Latino teenagers, although it is smaller for foreign- than native-born Latinos. Adult Latino immigrants are less affected by minimum wage laws than other low-education natives. We investigate whether skill levels and undocumented status help explain these findings.
AUTHORS: Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M.
DATE: 2007

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