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Working Paper
Theoretical macroeconomic modelling and qualitative specifications of the bond market
AUTHORS: Russell, William R.; Haslag, Joseph H.
DATE: 1988

Working Paper
What drives commodity price booms and busts?
What drives commodity price booms and busts? We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of commodity demand shocks, commodity supply shocks, and inventory demand shocks on real commodity prices. In particular, we analyze a new data set of price and production levels for 12 agricultural, metal, and soft commodities from 1870 to 2013. We identify differences in the type of shock driving prices of the various types of commodities and relate these differences to commodity types which reflect differences in long-run elasticities of supply and demand. Our results show that demand shocks strongly dominate supply shocks.
AUTHORS: Jacks, David S.; Stuermer, Martin
DATE: 2016-11-01

Working Paper
On the selective hedging of bank assets with Treasury bill futures contracts
AUTHORS: Koppenhaver, Gary D.
DATE: 1982

Working Paper
A theory of targeted search
We present a theory of targeted search, where people with a finite information processing capacity search for a match. Our theory explicitly accounts for both the quantity and the quality of matches. It delivers a unique equilibrium that resides in between the random matching and the directed search outcomes. The equilibrium that emerges from this middle ground is inefficient relative to the constrained Pareto allocation. Our theory encompasses the outcomes of the random matching and the directed search literature as limiting cases.
AUTHORS: Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Tutino, Antonella; Cheremukhin, Anton A.
DATE: 2014-02-13

Working Paper
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in gross state product. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes, particularly general business activity and growth rate of orders, are useful in predicting changes in Texas employment.
AUTHORS: Canas, Jesus; Kerr, Emily
DATE: 2014-12-01

Working Paper
The minimum wage and Latino workers
Because Latinos comprise a large and growing share of the low-skilled labor force in the U.S., Latinos may be disproportionately affected by minimum wage laws. We compare the effects of minimum wage laws on employment and earnings among Hispanic immigrants and natives compared with non-Hispanic whites and blacks. We focus on adults who have not finished high school and on teenagers, groups likely to earn low wages. Conventional economic theory predicts that higher minimum wages lead to higher hourly earnings among people who are employed but lower employment rates. Data from the Current Population Survey during the period 1994?2005 indicate that there is a significant disemployment effect of higher minimum wages on Latino teenagers, although it is smaller for foreign- than native-born Latinos. Adult Latino immigrants are less affected by minimum wage laws than other low-education natives. We investigate whether skill levels and undocumented status help explain these findings.
AUTHORS: Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M.
DATE: 2007

Working Paper
Reentering asset poverty after an exit: evidence from the PSID
In order to be successful at improving household's financial self-sufficiency and stability, asset-building policies must be designed to prevent households from falling back into asset poverty once they exit it. This paper uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data from 1994 to 2007 to analyze the influence of life events, demographics and financial behaviors on the duration out of asset poverty. We find evidence that suggests there are structural barriers to asset acquisition. Asset accumulation at levels equal to nine months worth of income at the income poverty level or greater is important for improving a family's odds of permanently escaping asset poverty. Additionally, minimizing debt and diversifying the asset portfolio to include more productive assets are important for maintaining assets. This paper provides some insights on policies to help individuals more successfully transition out of asset poverty.
AUTHORS: Di, Wenhua; Leonard, Tammy
DATE: 2012-03-01

Working Paper
Public debts and deficits in Mexico: a comment
AUTHORS: Welch, John H.
DATE: 1991

Working Paper
Immigrant links to the home country: empirical implications for U.S. and Canadian bilateral trade flows
AUTHORS: Gould, David M.
DATE: 1991

Working Paper
On the optimality of interest-bearing reserves in economies of overlapping generations
AUTHORS: Freeman, Scott; Haslag, Joseph H.
DATE: 1993

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