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Working Paper
Unilateral OECD policies to mitigate global climate change
Huntington, Hillard G.; Brown, Stephen P. A. (2000)
This article offers an alternative perspective for thinking about climate change policy when the developing countries are not participating. If industrialized countries cooperate with each other to reduce their emissions, but comply at levels below those required under the Kyoto protocol, they will have incentives to adopt policies that are more costly to the world than a carbon tax. These incentives result from terms-of-trade gains that result if conservation lowers world prices lower for fuels the industrialized countries import. We consider cases where the industrialized countries act ...
Working Papers , Paper 0003

Working Paper
Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks
Andolfatto, David (2018-10-05)
I investigate the theoretical impact of central bank digital currency (CBDC) on a monopolistic banking sector. The framework combines the Diamond (1965) model of government debt with the Klein (1971) and Monti (1972) model of banking. There are two main results. First, the introduction of interest-bearing CBDC increases financial inclusion, diminishing the demand for physical cash. Second, while interest-bearing CBDC reduces monopoly profit, it need not disintermediate banks in any way. CBDC may, in fact, lead to an expansion of bank deposits if CBDC competition compels banks to raise their ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-026

Working Paper
Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets
Neely, Christopher J. (2001)
Allen and Karjalainen (1999) used genetic programming to develop optimal ex ante trading rules for the S&P 500 index. They found no evidence that the returns to these rules were higher than buy-and-hold returns but some evidence that the rules had predictive ability. This comment investigates the risk-adjusted usefulness of such rules and more fully characterizes their predictive content. These results extend Allen and Karjalainen's (1999) conclusion by showing that although the rules' relative performance improves, there is no evidence that the rules significantly outperform the buy-and-hold ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-015

Working Paper
Defining the adjusted monetary base in an era of financial change
Rasche, Robert H.; Anderson, Richard G. (1996)
This paper examines how recent changes in the U.S. financial system have affected the appropriate definition, construction and interpretation of the St. Louis adjusted monetary base and adjusted reserves. Since 1990, reductions in statutory reserve requirements have significantly reduced the importance of the requirements as a constraint on the deposit and lending behavior of banks and other depository institutions. During the same period, depositories' interbank payments activities have come to determine most, if not all of their, demand for Federal Reserve Bank deposits. Our analysis ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-014

Working Paper
Localized Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from the Spatial Clustering of R&D Labs and Patent Citations
Carlino, Gerald A.; Smith, Tony E.; Carr, Jake; Hunt, Robert M.; Buzard, Kristy (2017-10-03)
Patent citations are a commonly used indicator of knowledge spillovers among inventors, while clusters of research and development labs are locations in which knowledge spillovers are particularly likely to occur. In this paper, we assign patents and citations to newly defined clusters of American R&D labs to capture the geographic extent of knowledge spillovers. Our tests show that the localization of knowledge spillovers, as measured via patent citations, is strongest at small spatial scales and diminishes rapidly with distance. On average, patents within a cluster are about three to six ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-32

Working Paper
Fraud deterrence in dynamic Mirrleesian economies
Armenter, Roc; Mertens, Thomas M. (2010)
Social and private insurance schemes rely on legal action to deter fraud and tax evasion. This observation guides the authors to introduce a random state verification technology in a dynamic economy with private information. With some probability, an agent's skill level becomes known to the planner, who prescribes a punishment if the agent is caught misreporting. The authors show how deferring consumption can ease the provision of incentives. As a result, the marginal benefit may be below the marginal cost of investment in the constrained-efficient allocation, suggesting a subsidy on savings. ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-7

Working Paper
Credit cycle and adverse selection effects in consumer credit markets -- evidence from the HELOC market
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Calem, Paul S.; Cannon, Matthew (2011)
The authors empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, they use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on the characteristics of the borrowers and their loans, and competing risk hazard regressions on the outcomes of the loans. The authors show that when the expected unemployment risk of households increases, riskier households tend to borrow more. As a consequence, the pool of households ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-13

Working Paper
Seeing inside the black box: Using diffusion index methodology to construct factor proxies in large scale macroeconomic time series environments
Swanson, Norman R.; Armah, Nii Ayi (2008)
In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We then outline a number of approaches to the selection of factor proxies (observed variables that proxy unobserved estimated factors) using the statistics developed in Bai and Ng (2006a,b). Our approach to factor proxy selection is examined via a small Monte Carlo experiment, where evidence supporting ...
Working Papers , Paper 08-25

Working Paper
Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times
Gupta, Deeksha; Elul, Ronel; Musto, David K. (2020-12-09)
When home prices threaten to decline, lenders bearing more of a community’s mortgage risk have an incentive to combat this decline with new lending that boosts demand. We test whether this incentive drove the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to guarantee riskier mortgages in early 2007, as the chance of substantial declines grew from small to signiﬁcant. To identify the eﬀect we relate new risky lending to regional variation in the GSEs’ exposure and the interaction of this variation with home-price elasticity. We focus on the GSEs’ discretion across potential purchases by ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-04R

Working Paper
Monetary policy and regional house-price appreciation
Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2016-11-30)
This paper examines the link between monetary policy and house-price appreciation by exploiting the fact that monetary policy is set at the national level, but has different effects on state-level activity in the United States. This differential impact of monetary policy provides an exogenous source of variation that can be used to assess the effect of monetary policy on state-level housing prices. Policy accommodation equivalent to 100 basis points on an equilibrium real federal funds rate basis raises housing prices by about 2.5 percent over the next two years. However, the estimated effect ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-18

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