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Working Paper
On Fed watching and central bank transparency in an overlapping generations model

I develop a simple general equilibrium model that integrates fed watching with central bank opaqueness. With the intergenerational conflict, opaqueness can solve a Ramsey problem. With monetary uncertainty as the only source of randomness, transparency is the welfare maximizing policy. With other sources of variation, transparency is costly in the sense that it limits the central bank?s response to intrinsic shocks. In short, opaqueness is the veil that permits the central bank freedom to choose money growth in a way to raise welfare.
Working Papers , Paper 0002

Working Paper
Offshoring and volatility: more evidence from Mexico's maquiladora industry

In recent papers, Bergin, Feenstra, and Hanson (2007 and 2009, hereafter BFH) analyze the impact that offshoring has in employment and output volatility, particularly on the Mexican maquiladora industry. Their empirical results indicate that employment and output in the offshoring manufacturing plants in Mexico are more volatile than their counterparts in the U.S. Such empirical results suggest that the maquiladora industry (offshoring) can help the U.S. industrial sector to better absorb shocks. In this paper, I expand BFH's empirical analysis in different directions. The empirical results I ...
Working Papers , Paper 1106

Working Paper
The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examines the effects of the U.S. shale oil boom in a two-country DSGE model where countries produce crude oil, refined oil products, and a non-oil good. The model incorporates different types of crude oil that are imperfect substitutes for each other as inputs into the refining sector. The model is calibrated to match oil market and macroeconomic data for the U.S. and the rest of the world (ROW). We investigate the implications of a significant increase in U.S. light crude oil production similar to the shale oil boom. Consistent with the data, our model predicts that light oil ...
Working Papers , Paper 1708

Working Paper
The quantitative importance of openness in development

This paper deals with a classic development question: how can the process of economic development ? transition from stagnation in a traditional technology to industrialization and prosperity with a modern technology ? be accelerated? Lewis (1954) and Rostow (1956) argue that the pace of industrialization is limited by the rate of capital formation which in turn is limited by the savings rate of workers close to subsistence. We argue that access to capital goods in the world market can be quantitatively important in speeding up the transition. We develop a parsimonious open-economy model where ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-025

Working Paper
The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse

New vehicle sales in the U.S. fell nearly 40 percent during the last recession, causing significant job losses and unprecedented government interventions in the auto industry. This paper explores two potential explanations for this decline: falling home values and falling households? income expectations. First, we establish that declining home values explain only a small portion of the observed reduction in vehicle sales. Using a county-level panel from the episode, we ?nd: (1) A one-dollar fall in home values reduced new vehicle spending by about 0.9 cents; and (2) Falling home values ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-19

Working Paper
Foreign direct investment in China: a spatial econometric study

Foreign direct investment (FDI) began to flow into China with advent of reforms in 1978. Following a period of relatively slow growth, FDI inflows to China picked up after 1990, as China surpassed every other nation but the United States in attracting foreign investment. In particular, coastal regions of China have received the bulk of FDI inflows to the country. In this paper, we use province-level data to explain the pattern of FDI location across China. We build upon previous research, introducing new potential determinants, using more recent FDI data, and incorporating spatial econometric ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-001

Working Paper
Learning in a large square economy

Learning is introduced into a sequence of large square endowment economies indexed by n, in which agents live n periods. Young agents need to forecast n - 1 periods ahead in these models in order to make consumption decisions, and thus these models constitute multi-step ahead systems. Real time learning is introduced via least squares. The systems studied in this paper are sometimes locally convergent when n = 2,3 but are never locally convergent when . Because the economies studied are analogous, nonconvergence can be attributed solely to the multi-step ahead nature of the forecast problem ...
Working Papers , Paper 1994-013

Working Paper
Aggregate shocks and labor market fluctuations

This paper evaluates the dynamic response of worker flows, job flows, and vacancies to aggregate shocks in a structural vector autoregression. We identify demand, monetary, and technology shocks by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of output, inflation, the interest rate, and the relative price of investment. No restrictions are placed on the responses of job and worker flows variables. We find that both investment-specific and neutral technology shocks generate responses to job and worker flows variables that are qualitatively similar to those induced by monetary and demand shocks. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2006-004

Working Paper
The rise of the skilled city

For more than a century, educated cities have grown more quickly than comparable cities with less human capital. This fact survives a battery of other control variables, metropolitan area fixed effects, and tests for reverse causality. The authors also find that skilled cities are growing because they are becoming more economically productive (relative to less skilled cities), not because these cities are becoming more attractive places to live. Most surprisingly, the authors find evidence suggesting that the skills-city growth connection occurs mainly in declining areas and occurs in large ...
Working Papers , Paper 04-2

Working Paper
Family characteristics and macroeconomic factors in U. S. intragenerational family income mobility, 1978–2014

Family economic mobility has been a policy concern for decades, with interest heating up further since the 1990s. Using data that tracks individual families? incomes during overlapping 10-year periods from 1978 through 2014, this paper investigates the relationships of factors ? family characteristics and macro influences ? to intragenerational mobility and whether the importance of those factors has changed over time. Family characteristics include both levels of work behavior and family structure and within-period changes in those factors, as well as time-invariant characteristics of the ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-1

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