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Working Paper
Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises
Ebsim, Mahdi; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Kozlowski, Julian (2023-07-25)
We compare firms’ financials during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. While the two crises featured similar increases in credit spreads, debt and liquid assets decreased during the GFC but increased during COVID-19. In the cross-section, leverage was the primary determinant of credit spreads and investment during the GFC, but liquidity was more important during COVID-19. We augment a quantitative model of firm capital structure with a motive to hold liquid assets. The GFC resembled a combination of real and financial shocks, while COVID-19 also featured liquidity shocks. We ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
Conley, Timothy G.; Dupor, Bill; Li, Rong; Zhou, Yijiang (2023-07-24)
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-017

Working Paper
Channel systems: Why is there a positive spread?
Marchesiani, Alessandro; Berentsen, Aleksander; Waller, Christopher J. (2010)
An increasing number of central banks implement monetary policy via two standing facilities: a lending facility and a deposit facility. In this paper we show that it is socially optimal to implement a non-zero interest rate spread. We prove this result in a dynamic general equilibrium model where market participants have heterogeneous liquidity needs and where the central bank requires government bonds as collateral. We also calibrate the model and discuss the behavior of the money market rate and the volumes traded at the ECB?s deposit and lending facilities in response to the recent ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-049

Working Paper
Charging up a mountain of debt: households and their credit cards.
Yoo, Peter S. (1996)
I use the Surveys of Consumer Finances conducted in 1983, 1989 and 1992 to separate the growth of credit card debt into two categories, changes in the number of households with credit cards and changes in households credit card debt. I can then account for the relative contributions of increases in credit card availability, number of households, and average credit card debt. I also use the household income information to quantify the impact of more lower income households with credit cards. Data suggest that the increases in credit card debt is largely attributable to increased average credit ...
Working Papers , Paper 1996-015

Working Paper
Debt constrained asset markets
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Levine, David K. (1992)
We develop a theory of general equilibrium with endogenous debt limits in the form of individual rationality constraints similar to those in the dynamic consistency literature. If an agent defaults on a contract, he can be excluded from future contingent claims markets trading and can have his assets seized. He cannot be excluded from spot markets trading, however, and he has some private endowments that cannot be seized. All information is publicly held and common knowledge, and there is a complete set of contingent claims markets. Since there is complete information, an agent cannot enter ...
Working Papers , Paper 445

Working Paper
On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment
Chatterjee, Satyajit; Corbae, Dean (2006)
The potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated. An economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the Great Depression. For the U.S., the maximum-likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years. The welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1 and 7 percent of annual consumption in perpetuity. For most estimates, more than half of these large gains result from a reduction in individual consumption volatility. ; This paper ...
Working Papers , Paper 06-18

Working Paper
Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Conditional Moment Models
Simoni, Anna; Shin, Minchul; Chib, Siddhartha (2019-12-09)
We provide a Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is speci?ed up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. This analysis is based on the nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood (ETEL) function, which is constructed to satisfy a sequence of unconditional moments, obtained from the conditional moments by an increasing (in sample size) vector of approximating functions (such as tensor splines based on the splines of each conditioning variable). The posterior distribution is shown to satisfy the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, subject to a ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-51

Working Paper
Has COVID Reversed Gentrification in Major U.S. Cities? An Empirical Examination of Residential Mobility in Gentrifying Neighborhoods During the COVID-19 Crisis
Ding, Lei; Hwang, Jackelyn (2022-08-17)
This paper examines whether neighborhoods that had been gentrifying lost their appeal during the pandemic because of COVID-induced health risks and increased work-from-home arrangements. By following the mobility pattern of residents in gentrifying neighborhoods in 39 major U.S. cities, we note a larger increase of 1.2 percentage points in the outmigration rate from gentrifying neighborhoods by the end of 2021, relative to nongentrifying ones, with out-of-city moves accounting for over 71 percent of the increased flight. The share of out-of-city moves into gentrifying neighborhoods also ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-20

Working Paper
Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators
Clark, Todd E.; Carriero, Andrea; Massimiliano, Marcellino (2020-05-11)
This paper focuses on tail risk nowcasts of economic activity, measured by GDP growth, with a potentially wide array of monthly and weekly information. We consider different models (Bayesian mixed frequency regressions with stochastic volatility, classical and Bayesian quantile regressions, quantile MIDAS regressions) and also different methods for data reduction (either the combination of forecasts from smaller models or forecasts from models that incorporate data reduction). The results show that classical and MIDAS quantile regressions perform very well in-sample but not out-of-sample, ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-13

Working Paper
The Sufficient Statistic Approach: Predicting the Top of the Laffer Curve
Huggett, Mark; Badel, Alejandro (2015-11-10)
We provide a formula for the tax rate at the top of the Laffer curve as a function of three elasticities. Our formula applies to static models and to steady states of dynamic models. One of the elasticities that enters our formula has been estimated in the elasticity of taxable income literature. We apply standard empirical methods from this literature to data produced by reforming the tax system in a model economy. We find that these standard methods underestimate the relevant elasticity in models with endogenous human capital accumulation.
Working Papers , Paper 2015-38

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