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Series:Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 

Working Paper
Expectation traps and discretion
We argue that discretionary monetary policy exposes the economy to welfare-decreasing instability. It does so by creating the potential for private expectations about the response of monetary policy to exogenous shocks to be self-fulfilling. Among the many equilibria that are possible, some have good welfare properties. But, others exhibit welfare decreasing volatility in output and employment. We refer to the latter type of equilibria as expectation traps. In effect, our paper presents a new argument for commitment in monetary policy because commitment eliminates these bad equilibria. We show that full commitment is not necessary to achieve the best outcome, and that more limited forms of commitment suffice.
AUTHORS: V.V. Chari; Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin
DATE: 1996

Working Paper
Small sample properties of GMM for business cycle analysis
AUTHORS: Christiano, Lawrence J.; Wouter den Haan
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy
AUTHORS: Kuttner, Kenneth N.; Joel T. Krueger
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle
AUTHORS: King, Robert G.; Watson, Mark W.
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
Asset pricing lessons for modeling business cycles
AUTHORS: Boldrin, Michele; Christiano, Lawrence J.; Fisher, Jonas D. M.
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
Inside money, outside money and short term interest rates
AUTHORS: Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin; V.V. Chari
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
Tobin's Q and asset returns: implications for business cycle analysis
AUTHORS: Christiano, Lawrence J.; Fisher, Jonas D. M.
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
Sectoral Solow residuals
AUTHORS: Burnside, Craig; Rebelo, Sergio; Eichenbaum, Martin
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
The European unemployment dilemma
AUTHORS: Sargent, Thomas J.; Ljungqvist, Lars
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
Flexible employment; composition and trends
AUTHORS: Segal, Lewis M.
DATE: 1995

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