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Working Paper
Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB
Leduc, Sylvain; Gnocchi, Stefano; Wagner, Joel; Amano, Robert (2020-06-24)
The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. This has renewed interest in monetary policies that embed makeup strategies, such as price-level or average-inflation targeting. This paper examines the properties of average-inflation targeting in a two-agent New Keynesian (TANK) model in which a fraction of firms have adaptive expectations. We examine the optimal degree of history dependence under average-inflation targeting and find it to be relatively short for business cycle shocks of standard ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-21

Working Paper
Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China
Li, Xiaoming; Xu, Zhiwei; Liu, Zheng; Peng, Yuchao (2020-08-03)
We present evidence that monetary policy easing reduces bank risk-taking but exacerbates capital misallocation in China after implementing the Basel III capital regulationsin2013. Thenewregulationstightenedbankcapitalrequirementsandintroduced a new risk-weighting approach to calculating the capital adequacy ratio (CAR). To meet tightened capital requirements, a bank can boost its eﬀective CAR by raising capital or by increasing the share of lending to low-risk borrowers. Using conﬁdential loan-level data from a large Chinese commercial bank, merged with ﬁrm-level data on a large set of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-27

Working Paper
The Credit Line Channel
Krainer, John; Paul, Pascal; Greenwald, Daniel L. (2020-07-31)
Aggregate bank lending to ﬁrms expands following adverse macroeconomic shocks, such as the outbreak of COVID-19 or a monetary policy tightening, at odds with canonical models. Using loan-level supervisory data, we show that these dynamics are driven by draws on credit lines by large ﬁrms. Banks that experience larger drawdowns restrict term lending more — an externality onto smaller ﬁrms. Using a structural model, we show that credit lines are necessary to reproduce the ﬂow of credit toward less constrained ﬁrms after adverse shocks. While credit lines increase total credit ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-26

Working Paper
Reservation Benefits: Assessing job acceptance impacts of increased UI payments
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas (2020-08-04)
Job acceptance decisions weigh the value of an entire job spell relative to remaining unemployed. There exists a reservation level of beneﬁt payments in this dynamic decision problem at which an individual is indifferent between accepting and refusing an offer. This reservation beneﬁt is a simple statistic to test the job acceptance deterrence effects of current unemployment insurance (UI) payments, summarizing the decision problem conditional on the believed state of the labor market and the weeks of UI compensation remaining. Estimating the reservation beneﬁt for a wide range of US ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-28

Working Paper
Summer workshop on money, banking, payments and finance: an overview
Nosal, Ed; Wright, Randall (2010)
The 2010 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments and Finance met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago this summer, for the second year. The following document summarizes and ties together the papers presented.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2010-15

Working Paper
Just What the Nurse Practitioner Ordered: Independent Prescriptive Authority and Population Mental Health
Alexander, Diane; Schnell, Molly (2016-12-20)
We examine whether relaxing occupational licensing to allow nurse practitioners (NPs)?registered nurses with advanced degrees?to prescribe medication without physician oversight is associated with improved population mental health. Exploiting time-series variation in independent prescriptive authority for NPs from 1990?2014, we find that broadening prescriptive authority is associated with improvements in self-reported mental health and decreases in mental-health-related mortality, including suicides. These improvements are concentrated in areas underserved by psychiatrists and among ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-8

Working Paper
Comment on "Letting different views about business cycles compete"
Fisher, Jonas D. M. (2009)
This comment explains why the findings presented in Beaudry and Lucke (2009) are misleading.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2010-01

Working Paper
Selecting Primal Innovations in DSGE models
Ferroni, Filippo; Grassi, Stefano; León-Ledesma, Miguel A. (2017-08-01)
DSGE models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain primal shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of estimating shocks that are "non-existent" and propose a method to select the primal shocks driving macroeconomic uncertainty. Forcing these non-existing shocks in estimation produces a downward bias in the estimated internal persistence of the model. We show how these distortions can be reduced by using priors for standard deviations whose support includes zero. The method allows us to accurately select primal shocks and estimate model ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-20

Working Paper
Labor market transitions and self-employment
Rissman, Ellen R. (2007)
The self-employed are a heterogeneous group. Some are self-employed because they are good at it, while others are self-employed because they cannot find a better paying salaried job. Data from the CPS for prime age males show that workers are almost twice as likely to enter self-employment from unemployment as from paid employment. Furthermore, almost 22% of workers exit self-employment within the year with most returning to paid employment. This paper develops a framework for examining transitions between the labor market states of unemployment, paid employment, and self-employment. The ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-07-14

Working Paper
Regulating two-sided markets: an empirical investigation
Carbo-Valverde, Santiago; Chakravorti, Sujit; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Francisco (2009)
We study the effect of government encouraged or mandated interchange fee ceilings on consumer and merchant adoption and usage of payment cards in an economy where card acceptance is far from complete. We believe that we are the first to use bank- level data to study the impact of interchange fee regulation. We find that consumer and merchant welfare improved because of increased consumer and merchant adoption leading to greater usage of payment cards. We also find that bank revenues increased when interchange fees were reduced although these results are critically dependent on merchant ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-09-11

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