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Working Paper
Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?

We use a consumption based asset pricing model to show that the predictability of excess returns on risky assets can arise from only two sources: (1) stochastic volatility of model variables, or (2) departures from rational expectations that give rise to predictable investor forecast errors and market inefficiency. From an empirical perspective, we investigate whether 1-month ahead excess returns on stocks can be predicted using measures of consumer sentiment and excess return momentum, while controlling directly and indirectly for the presence of stochastic volatility. A variable that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-14

Working Paper
Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment

We develop a two-sector search-matching model of the labor market with imperfect mobility of workers, augmented to incorporate a housing market and a frictional goods market. Homeowners use home equity as collateral to finance idiosyncratic consumption opportunities. A financial innovation that raises the acceptability of homes as collateral raises house prices and reduces unemployment. It also triggers a reallocation of workers, with the direction of the change depending on firms? market power in the goods market. A calibrated version of the model under adaptive learning can account for ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-26

Working Paper
Monetary policy in a small open economy with a preference for robustness

We use robust control techniques to study the effects of model uncertainty on monetary policy in an estimated, semi-structural, small-open-economy model of the U.K. Compared to the closed economy, the presence of an exchange rate channel for monetary policy not only produces new trade-offs for monetary policy, but it also introduces an additional source of specification errors. We find that exchange rate shocks are an important contributor to volatility in the model, and that the exchange rate equation is particularly vulnerable to model misspecification, along with the equation for domestic ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2007-04

Working Paper
The effects of health insurance and self-insurance on retirement behavior

Using an estimable dynamic programming model of retirement behavior, this paper assesses the relative importance of Medicare and Social Security in determining job exit rates at age 65. Of central importance is whether individuals value health insurance benefits not just for the reduction in average medical expenses, but also for the reduction in the volatility of medical expenses. To address this problem the model accounts explicitly for the effects of health cost volatility and health insurance on retirement behavior. By including a savings decision within the model, we allow for the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-01-19

Working Paper
Impact of deposit rate deregulation in Hong Kong on the market value of commercial banks

This paper examines the effects of deposit rate deregulation in Hong Kong on the market value of banks. The release of the Consumer Council's Report in 1994 recommending interest rate deregulation is found to produce negative abnormal returns, while the announcement in 1995 terminating the deregulation program led to positive abnormal returns. Furthermore, news about resumption of interest rate deregulation in 1998 and the official announcement in 2000 to abolish the interest rate rules produced negative abnormal returns. The evidence suggests that Hong Kong banks earned rents from deposit ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2001-11

Working Paper
Outsourcing business services and the role of central administrative offices

In this paper, I study whether there is any evidence that the market scale surrounding a central administrative office (CAO), which includes corporate headquarters, influences a firm's cost-effectiveness in procuring business services. By linking plant-level data from the 1992 Annual Survey of Manufactures with CAO information from the Survey of Auxiliary Establishments, I examine manufacturing plants' practice of outsourcing services in relation to the size of the local service market surrounding the plant and that surrounding the plant's CAO. I found statistically significant evidence that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-02-01

Working Paper
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve

We show that the existence of downward nominal wage rigidities bends the short-run wage Phillips curve. We introduce a model of monetary policy with downward nominal wage rigidities and show that both the slope and curvature of the Phillips curve depend on the level of inflation and the extent of downward nominal wage rigidities. This is true for the both the long-run and the short-run Phillips curve. Comparing simulation results from the model with data on U.S. wage changes since the onset of the Great Recession, we show that downward nominal wage rigidities have likely played a role in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-08

Working Paper
Measuring the natural rate of interest redux

Persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are here to stay. This essay assesses the empirical evidence regarding the natural rate of interest in the United States using the Laubach-Williams model. Since the start of the Great Recession, the estimated natural rate of interest fell sharply and shows no sign of recovering. These results are robust to alternative model specifications. If the natural rate remains low, future episodes of hitting the zero lower bound are likely to be frequent and long-lasting. In addition, uncertainty about the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-16

Working Paper
Just What the Nurse Practitioner Ordered: Independent Prescriptive Authority and Population Mental Health

We examine whether relaxing occupational licensing to allow nurse practitioners (NPs)?registered nurses with advanced degrees?to prescribe medication without physician oversight is associated with improved population mental health. Exploiting time-series variation in independent prescriptive authority for NPs from 1990?2014, we find that broadening prescriptive authority is associated with improvements in self-reported mental health and decreases in mental-health-related mortality, including suicides. These improvements are concentrated in areas underserved by psychiatrists and among ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-8

Working Paper
Repos, fire sales, and bankruptcy policy

The events from the 2007?09 financial crisis have raised concerns that the failure of large financial institutions can lead to destabilizing fire sales of assets. The risk of fire sales is related to exemptions from bankruptcy's automatic stay provision enjoyed by a number of financial contracts, such as repo. An automatic stay prohibits collection actions by creditors against a bankrupt debtor or his property. It prevents a creditor from liquidating collateral of a defaulting debtor, since collateral is a lien on the debtor's property. In this paper, we construct a model of repo ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2012-15



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