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Working Paper
Labor market policies in an equilibrium search model
Alvarez, Fernando; Veracierto, Marcelo (1999)
We explore to what extent differences in employment and unemployment across economies can be generated by differences in labor market policies. We use a version of the Lucas-Prescott equilibrium search model with undirected search and endogenous labor-force participation. Minimum wages, degree of unionization, firing taxes, and unemployment benefits are introduced and their effects analyzed. When the model is calibrated to US observations it reproduces several of the elasticities of employment and unemployment with respect to changes in policies reported in the empirical literature. We find ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-99-10

Working Paper
Pricing IPOs of mutual thrift conversions: the joint effect of regulation and market discipline
So, Jacky C.; Evanoff, Douglas D.; Brewer, Elijah (2001)
A large number of mutual savings and loan associations (MSLs) converted their charters into stock ownership between the mid-1980s to mid-1990s. Because these conversions tended to generate windfall profits for insiders and investors, new conversion guidelines and regulations were proposed by the FDIC to make sure that prices of the conversion IPO were right and fair. As pointed out by Mr. Henry B. Gonzales, former Chairman of the House Banking Committee, "conversion regulations of the Office of Thrift Supervision have ensured that insiders and acquirers don't benefit at the expenses of the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-01-25

Working Paper
Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2022-05-18)
We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a quantitative business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions and estimated to fit U.S. time series. In the model, procyclical automation threats create real wage rigidity that amplify labor market fluctuations. We find that this automation mechanism is quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-17

Working Paper
Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2021-12-21)
Japanese realized and expected inflation has been below the Bank of Japan’s two percent target for many years. We use the exogenous COVID-19 pandemic shock to examine the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy responses for elevating inflation expectations from an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. We find that monetary and fiscal policy announcements during this period failed to lift inflation expectations, which instead declined notably and are projected to only slowly revert back to levels far below the announced target. Hence, our results illustrate the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-24

Working Paper
Spending responses to state sales tax holidays
Agarwal, Sumit; McGranahan, Leslie (2012)
Every year over 20 states offer sales tax holidays (STHs) on specific items like clothes, shoes and other items to encourage consumption, affecting over 100 million consumers. We use a unique dataset of credit cards transaction to study the spending response to these holidays. Using a diff-in-diff methodology, we find that STHs increase overall daily spending by 8%, with large percentage increases in spending on children?s clothes and shoes of 193% and 98% respectively. Consumers with children increase spending more during STHs. Our estimates of price elasticities range from 6 for big box ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2012-10

Working Paper
The importance of check-cashing businesses to the unbanked: racial/ethnic differences
Toussaint-Comeau, Maude; Greene, William H.; Rhine, Sherrie L. W. (2003)
The roughly 9.5 percent of all U.S. families that are without some type of transaction account (unbanked) are disproportionately represented by minorities. The unbanked often must rely on alternative ways to carry out basic financial transactions such as cashing payroll checks and paying bills. This study analyzes unique survey data and finds that a consumer's decision to patronize check-cashing businesses is jointly made with the decision to be unbanked. For the unbanked, these businesses are an important source for financial services. Attributes that contribute to these decisions, however, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-10

Working Paper
Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link
Spiegel, Mark M.; Benhabib, Jess (2006)
In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation and growth for a cross-section of countries with 19th and 20th century data, concluding that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-32

Working Paper
Local market consolidation and bank productive efficiency
Ors, Evren; Evanoff, Douglas D. (2002)
The recent banking literature has evaluated the impact of mergers on the efficiency of the merging parties [e.g., Rhoades (1993), Shaffer (1993), Fixler and Zieschang (1993)]. Similarly, there has been analysis of the impact of eliminating bank entry restrictions on the average performance of banks [Jayaratne and Strahan (1998)]. The evidence suggests that acquiring banks are typically more efficient than are acquired banks, resulting in the potential for the new combined organization to be more efficient and, therefore, for the merger to be welfare enhancing. The evidence also suggests, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-02-25

Working Paper
Last-in first-out oligopoly dynamics
Campbell, Jeffrey R.; Abbring, Jaap H. (2006)
This paper extends the static analysis of oligopoly structure into an infinite- horizon setting with sunk costs and demand uncertainty. The observation that exit rates decline with firm age motivates the assumption of last-in first- out dynamics: An entrant expects to produce no longer than any incumbent. This selects an essentially unique Markov-perfect equilibrium. With mild restrictions on the demand shocks, a sequence of thresholds describes firms? equilibrium entry and survival decisions. Bresnahan and Reiss?s (1993) empirical analysis of oligopolists? entry and exit assumes that such ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-06-28

Working Paper
Commodity money with frequent search
Trachter, Nicholas; Oberfield, Ezra (2010)
A prominent feature of the Kiyotaki and Wright (1989) model of commodity money is the multiplicity of dynamic equilibria. We show that the frequency of search is strongly related to the extent of multiplicity. To isolate the role of frequency of search in generating multiplicity, we (i) vary the frequency of search without changing the frequency of finding a trading partner and (ii) focus on symmetric dynamic equilibria, a class for which we can sharply characterize several features of the set of equilibria. For any finite frequency of search this class retains much of the multiplicity. For ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2010-22

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