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Working Paper
Sorting by skill over the course of job search

We use novel high-frequency panel data on individuals' job applications from an online job posting engine to study (1) whether at the beginning of search job seekers with different levels of education (skill) apply to different jobs, and (2) how search behavior changes as search continues. First, we find that there is sorting by skill at the beginning of search. Second, as search continues, job seekers apply to different types of jobs than at the beginning of search. In particular, assuming that sorting at the beginning of search is positive, as search continues there is less sorting by ...
Working Paper , Paper 12-03

Working Paper
Some not so unpleasant monetarist arithmetic

This paper analyzes the quantitative significance of Sargent and Wallace's (1981) "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" in a model that is parameterized to correspond with U.S. data. The major result is that the monetarist arithmetic is not overly unpleasant and that the nominal side of the economy is not very sensitive to whether money growth does or does not respond to government debt.
Working Paper , Paper 95-02

Working Paper
Internet banking: an exploration in technology diffusion and impact

This paper studies the diffusion and impact of a cost-saving technological innovation?Internet banking. Our theory characterizes the process through which the innovation is adopted sequentially by large and small banks, and how the adoption affects bank size distribution. Applying the theory to an empirical study of Internet banking diffusion among banks across 50 U.S. states, we examine the technological, economic and institutional factors governing the process. The empirical findings allow us to disentangle the interrelationship between Internet banking adoption and change in average bank ...
Working Paper , Paper 13-10

Working Paper
The recent financial deregulation and the interest elasticity of the simple M1 demand function : an empirical note

The main objective of this note is to examine whether the interest elasticity of money demand has increased during the last few years. A simple money demand regression that includes additional intercept and slope dummy variables defined over the interval 1981.01 to 1985.03 is estimated for the whole sample period 1961.01-1985.03. The regression results show that the elasticity of money demand with respect to market interest rates has for now increased. No shifts are detected in income and time trend elasticities. The in-sample predictions of the more interest-sensitive money demand regression ...
Working Paper , Paper 85-03

Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel

During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the US varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. Our message is that household financial health matters for understanding this relationship. Two facts are essential for our finding: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress (FD) prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of FD prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. We measure the power of the ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-13

Working Paper
Health, Health Insurance, and Retirement: A Survey

The degree to which retirement decisions are driven by health is a key concern for both academics and policymakers. In this paper we survey the economic literature on the health-retirement link in developed countries. We describe the mechanisms through which health affects labor supply and discuss how they interact with public pensions and public health insurance. The historical evidence suggests that health is not the primary source of variation in retirement across countries and over time. Furthermore, declining health with age can only explain a small share of the decline in employment ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-3

Working Paper
Searching for Hysteresis

We search for the presence of hysteresis, which we dene as aggregate demand shocks that have a permanent impact on real GDP, in the U.S., the Euro Area, and the U.K. Working with cointegrated structural VARs, we nd essentially no evidence of such effects. Within a Classical statistical framework, it is virtually impossible to detect such shocks. Within a Bayesian context, the presence of these shocks can be mechanically imposed upon the data. However, unless a researcher is willing to impose the restriction that the sign of their long-run impact on GDP is the same for all draws, which amounts ...
Working Paper , Paper 21-03

Working Paper
Monetary policy frameworks and indicators for the Federal Reserve in the 1920s

The 1920s and 1930s saw the Fed reject a state-of-the-art empirical policy framework for a logically defective one. Consisting of a quantity theoretic analysis of the business cycle, the former framework featured the money stock, price level, and real interest rates as policy indicators. By contrast, the Fed?s procyclical needs-of-trade, or real bills, framework stressed such policy guides as market nominal interest rates, volume of member bank borrowing, and type and amount of commercial paper eligible for rediscount at the central bank. The start of the Great Depression put these rival sets ...
Working Paper , Paper 00-07

Working Paper
An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms

This paper reports an experiment that evaluates three regimes for triggering the conversion of contingent capital bonds into equity: (a) a ?regulator? regime, where socially motivated regulators make conversion decisions based on observed prices, (b) a ?fixed trigger? regime where a price threshold triggers a mandatory conversion, and (c) a ?prediction market? regime where we supplement the regulator?s information set with the results of a prediction market that elicits traders? perceived likelihood of a conversion. Consistent with theory, we observe informational and allocative ...
Working Paper , Paper 11-01

Working Paper
Two-sided Market, R&D and Payments System Evolution

It takes many years for more efficient electronic payments to be widely used, and the fees that merchants (consumers) pay for using those services are increasing (decreasing) over time. We address these puzzles by studying payments system evolution with a dynamic model in a two-sided market setting. We calibrate the model to the U.S. payment card data, and conduct welfare and policy analysis. Our analysis shows that the market power of electronic payment networks plays important roles in explaining the slow adoption and asymmetric price changes, and the welfare impact of regulations may vary ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-3

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