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Series:Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 

Working Paper
The future of small banks

This paper is a report to the Banking Supervision and Regulation Division on research that I conducted on the future of small banks while working in the Division as a Visiting Scholar. In this paper, small banks are identified as those with total assets less than $1 billion. Small banks have an important role in financing economic activity in the U.S., through their loans to small businesses. In addition, the Banking Supervision and Regulation Division of the St. Louis Fed has a vital interest in the future of small banks because most of the staff in this Division are involved in supervising ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2007-02

Working Paper
On the relevance of credit market structure to monetary policy

Credit affects the economy via various channels: its price, collateral requirements and the extent of rationing. Would the intensity of monetary transmission be affected by the market structure of the credit industry? Using a spatial competition framework I demonstrate how credit market structure can affect the transmission of monetary policy changes into real activity via the volume of credit. The paper also points that monetary tightening may render lending unprofitable and consequently beget a credit crunch; the extent of credit market robustness to contractive monetary policy is shown to ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2007-03

Working Paper
Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations

I derive measures of U.S. job-separation and job-matching rates from aggregate Current Population Survey data. Using an unrestricted unobserved-components approach, I decompose these series into trends and cycles and compare the results with the trend and cyclical behavior of labor-productivity growth. Both transitory and permanent shocks to productivity are strongly positively correlated with fluctuations in the rate of job matching and negatively correlated with cyclical fluctuations in separation rates. Productivity growth thereby accounts for about a third of the overall variation in the ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2005-04

Working Paper
Gains from financial integration in the European union: evidence for new and old members

We estimate potential welfare gains from financial integration and corresponding better insurance against country-specific shocks to output (risk sharing) for the twenty-five European Union countries. Using theoretical utility-based measures we express the gains from risk sharing as the utility equivalent of a permanent increase in consumption. We report positive potential welfare gains for all the EU countries if they move toward full risk sharing. Ten country-members who joined the Union in 2004 have more volatile or counter-cyclical consumption and output and would obtain much higher ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2007-01

Working Paper
In search of the natural rate of unemployment

The natural rate of unemployment can be measured as the time-varying steady state of a structural vector autoregression. For post-War U.S. data, the natural rate implied by this approach is more volatile than most previous estimates, with its movements accounting for the bulk of the variation in the unemployment rate, as well as substantial portions of the variation in aggregate output and inflation. These movements, in turn, can be related to variables associated with labor-market search theory, including unemployment benefits, labor productivity, real wages, and sectoral shifts in the labor ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2005-05

Working Paper
Should the FDIC worry about the FHLB? the impact of Federal Home Loan Bank advances on the Bank Insurance Fund

Does growing commercial-bank reliance on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLBank) advances increase expected losses to the Bank Insurance Fund (BIF)? Our approach to this question begins by modeling the link between advances and expected losses. We then quantify the effect of advances on default probability with a CAMELS-downgrade model. Finally, we assess the impact on loss-given-default by estimating resolution costs in two scenarios: the liquidation of all banks with failure probabilities above two percent and the liquidation of all banks with advance-to-asset ratios above 15 percent. The evidence ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2005-01

Working Paper
Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?

We examine the value of feedback from the jumbo-certificate-of-deposit (CD) market in the off-site surveillance of community banks. Using accounting data, we construct proxies for default premiums on jumbo CDs. Then, we produce rank orderings of community banks -- defined as institutions holding less than $500 million in assets (constant 1999 dollars) -- based on these proxies. Next, we use an econometric surveillance model to generate rank orderings based on the probability of encountering financial distress. Finally, we compare these rank orderings as tools for flagging emerging problems. ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2002-08

Working Paper
Investigating output cycles under two alternative financial systems

Different financial systems vary in the way they contribute to the process of resource allocation in the economy and in the risk-sharing pattern that they bring about. It would therefore be plausible to expect different financial systems to differ in the way they affect real economic activity. I hereby provide a theoretic framework for the comparison and analysis of output cycles under two alternative financial systems: an equity-based financial system (EFS), in which a mutual fund functions as a financial intermediary, versus a debt-based financial system (DFS), in which a bank plays that ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2007-04

Working Paper
Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis

We analyze the subprime mortgage crisis: an unusually large fraction of subprime mortgages originated in 2006 being delinquent or in foreclosure only months later. We utilize a loan-level database, covering about half of all US subprime mortgages, and identify two major causes. First, over the past five years, high loan-to-value borrowers increasingly became high-risk borrowers, in terms of elevated delinquency and foreclosure rates. Lenders were aware of this and adjusted mortgage rates accordingly over time. Second, the below-average house price appreciation in 2006-2007 further contributed ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2007-05

Working Paper
The impact of alternative bank monitoring policies on corporate investment and financing decisions

Much of the benefit from bank loans is generated by the specialized monitoring and information gathering role provided by financial institutions, including their role in facilitating the reorganization of firms experiencing financial distress. Despite these numerous benefits, it is somewhat surprising that aggregate trends suggest that the corporate sector has decreased its reliance on bank loans. We model the relationship between alternative bank monitoring policies and corporate investment and financing decisions. Rather than taking the monitoring characteristics of the bank as fixed, we ...
Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers , Paper 2002-09

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