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Series:Staff Report  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

Report
Aggregate implications of innovation policy

In this paper we present a tractable model of innovating firms and the aggregate economy that we use to assess quantitatively the link between the responses of firms to changes in innovation policy and the impact of those policy changes on aggregate output and welfare. We show that, to a first-order approximation, a wide range of policy changes have a long-run impact in direct proportion to the fiscal expenditures on those policies, and that to evaluate the aggregate impact of a policy change, there is no need to calculate changes in firms' decisions in response to these policy changes. ; We ...
Staff Report , Paper 459

Report
Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises

We develop a model for analyzing the sovereign debt crises of 2010?2012 in the Eurozone. The government sets its expenditure-debt policy optimally. The need to sell large quantities of bonds every period leaves the government vulnerable to self-fulfilling crises in which investors, anticipating a crisis, are unwilling to buy the bonds, thereby provoking the crisis. In this situation, the optimal policy of the government is to reduce its debt to a level where crises are not possible. If, however, the economy is in a recession where there is a positive probability of recovery in fiscal ...
Staff Report , Paper 465

Report
Perfectly competitive innovation

We construct a competitive model of innovation and growth under constant returns to scale. Previous models of growth under constant returns cannot model technological innovation. Current models of endogenous innovation rely on the interplay between increasing returns and monopolistic markets. In fact, established wisdom claims monopoly power to be instrumental for innovation and sees the nonrivalrous nature of ideas as a natural conduit to increasing returns. The results here challenge the positive description of previous models and the normative conclusion that monopoly through copyright and ...
Staff Report , Paper 303

Report
Why are married women working so much?

We study the large observed changes in labor supply by married women in the United States over 1950-1990, a period when labor supply by single women has hardly changed at all. We investigate the effects of changes in the gender wage gap, technological improvements in the production of nonmarket goods and potential inferiority of these goods on understanding this change. We find that small decreases in the gender wage gap can explain simultaneously the significant increases in the average hours worked by married women and the relative constancy in the hours worked by single women, and single ...
Staff Report , Paper 317

Report
Heterogeneity in expected longevities

We develop a new methodology to compute differences in the expected longevity of individuals who are in different socioeconomic groups at age 50. We deal with two main problems associated with the standard use of life expectancy: that people?s socioeconomic characteristics evolve over time and that there is a time trend that reduces mortality over time. Using HRS data for individuals from different cohorts, we estimate a hazard model for survival with time-varying stochastic endogenous covariates that yields the desired expected durations. We uncover an enormous amount of heterogeneity in ...
Staff Report , Paper 471

Report
The permanent income hypothesis revisited

Measured aggregate U.S. consumption does not behave like a martingale. This paper develops and tests two variants of the permanent income model that are consistent with this fact. In both variants, we assume agents make decisions on a continuous time basis. According to the first variant, the martingale hypothesis holds in continuous time and serial persistence in measured consumption reflects only the effects of time aggregation. We investigate this variant using both structural and atheoretical econometric models. The evidence against these models is far from overwhelming. This suggests ...
Staff Report , Paper 129

Report
A method for estimating the timing interval in a linear econometric model, with an application to Taylor's model of staggered contracts

This paper describes and implements a procedure for estimating the timing interval in any linear econometric model. The procedure is applied to Taylor?s model of staggered contracts using annual averaged price and output data. The fit of the version of Taylor?s model with serially uncorrelated disturbances improves as the timing interval of the model is reduced.
Staff Report , Paper 101

Report
Time consistency and policy

Staff Report , Paper 115

Report
Systematically missing data in econometric models

Staff Report , Paper 13

Report
Appendix for How Exporters Grow

No abstract
Staff Report , Paper 539

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