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Series:Richmond Fed Economic Brief 

Briefing
School Quality as a Tool for Attracting People to Rural Areas

Many rural localities are interested in strategies for retaining residents and attracting newcomers. Recent research indicates that one promising strategy for rural development is maintaining and improving the quality of an area's public schools. In this research, which is the first national study of the relationship between school quality and migration flows in and out of rural areas, better outcomes for students in a rural county's schools were associated with higher migration into that county.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-08 , Pages 4

Briefing
Inflation Targeting: Could Bad Luck Explain Persistent One-Sided Misses?

In January 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee set an explicit inflation target of 2 percent, but the annual inflation rate has been 0.25 percentage points or more below that target for the past 10 quarters. Extended periods of one-sided misses are common among inflation-targeting countries, but it is not clear whether these persistent deviations are caused by structural changes, bad policy or bad luck. Analysis of the statistical properties of the inflation process in the United States suggests that bad luck remains a plausible explanation for the FOMC's current string of one-sided ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Sept

Briefing
The Burns Disinflation of 1974

Economists often describe the Great Inflation of the 1970s as a failure of the monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Arthur Burns. According to conventional wisdom, when Paul Volcker became chairman of the Fed in 1979, he implemented changes that ushered in a period of disinflation. This Economic Brief challenges this standard narrative in two ways. First, it argues that the ?Volcker disinflation? had its roots in 1974. And second, Volcker?s actions were the culmination of a gradual shift in policy that began under Burns rather than an abrupt shift.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue November

Briefing
Should the Fed Do Emergency Lending?

In its 100-year history, many of the Federal Reserve's actions in the name of financial stability have come through emergency lending once financial crises are underway. It is not obvious that the Fed should be involved in emergency lending, however, since expectations of such lending can increase the likelihood of crises. Arguments in favor of this role often misread history. Instead, history and experience suggest that the Fed's balance sheet activities should be restricted to the conduct of monetary policy.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue July

Briefing
When did the recession end?

Although the National Bureau of Economic Research has not yet officially announced the end of the recession that started in December 2007, the data series commonly used to date recessions seem to preliminarily suggest that it ended in the middle of last year. However, certain areas of the economy, particularly employment and personal income, remain relatively sluggish.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Aug

Briefing
Explaining the car industry cluster: the case of U.S. car makers from 1895-1969

The geographic clustering of companies within an industry is often attributed to several agglomeration economies: intra-industry spillovers (benefits from proximity to firms in the same industry), inter-industry spillovers (benefits from proximity to firms in related industries), and spinoffs (firms established by former employees of a company in the same industry). Analysis of data on the U.S. auto industry in its first 75 years sheds light on the relative importance of those forces to the clustering of car makers
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Oct

Briefing
Excess reserves and the new challenges for monetary policy

Interest on reserves allows the Federal Reserve to pursue an appropriate monetary policy even with a high level of excess reserves. However, a banking system flush with excess reserves can raise the risk of monetary policy getting behind the curve.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Mar

Briefing
The size and structure of exports in the Fifth District economy

In the last 10 years, exports have played a growing role in the national economy. This has been especially true in the Fifth District since mid-2002.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Jan

Briefing
Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending

U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate (CRE) lending significantly in the past five years. Economists and regulators note that some positive factors are driving this trend, but they also see potential risks. Analysts at the Richmond Fed have found that some banks could be especially vulnerable if economic conditions deteriorate. These include institutions that are in certain major urban areas and have high concentrations of CRE loans, rapid CRE loan growth, and heavy reliance on "noncore" (or illiquid) funding. But the analysts also conclude that, overall, banks' CRE exposures ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue August

Briefing
Expanding the Scope of Workforce Development

Workforce development efforts often are geared toward adult workers. But examining workforce development from the perspective of human capital theory suggests that earlier interventions may yield high returns.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue May

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