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Briefing
School Quality as a Tool for Attracting People to Rural Areas
Marre, Alexander; Price, David A.; Rupasingha, Anil (2020-08)
Many rural localities are interested in strategies for retaining residents and attracting newcomers. Recent research indicates that one promising strategy for rural development is maintaining and improving the quality of an area's public schools. In this research, which is the first national study of the relationship between school quality and migration flows in and out of rural areas, better outcomes for students in a rural county's schools were associated with higher migration into that county.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-08 , Pages 4

Briefing
Presidential Politics and Monetary Policy: Lessons from the 1896 Election
Rhodes, Karl; Fulford, Scott L.; Schwartzman, Felipe (2020-02)
The U.S. presidential election of 1896 provides an excellent natural experiment to measure the impact of exchange-rate uncertainty on bank balance sheets and the broader economy. The evidence suggests that the election's contentious free-silver debate significantly constrained banking activity and real economic activity by creating greater uncertainty about U.S. commitment to the gold standard. This finding reinforces the modern-day wisdom of insulating monetary policy from politics.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-02 , Pages 5

Briefing
Public and Private Debt after the Pandemic and Policy Normalization
Lubik, Thomas A.; Schwartzman, Felipe (2020-05)
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, public debt has increased dramatically and private debt seems likely to increase as well. High indebtedness could influence the effectiveness of monetary policy and lead to political pressure for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates for an extended period of time.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-06 , Pages 6

Briefing
Who Values Access to College?
Neelakantan, Urvi; Vidangos, Ivan; Athreya, Kartik B.; Ionescu, Felicia (2020-03)
A quantitative model of college enrollment suggests that the value of college access varies greatly across individuals. Forty percent place no value on the option to attend despite large public subsidies, while 25 percent would enroll even without the subsidies. In the model, redirecting public funds from those who attend college irrespective of subsidies to those who don’t attend even with subsidies both preserves college enrollment and improves overall outcomes. While these two groups are clearly visible only in the model, and not in the data, this analysis suggests that more-targeted ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-03 , Pages 5

Briefing
Loan-Delinquency Projections for COVID-19
Gordon, Grey; Jones, John Bailey; Romero, Jessica Sackett (2020-04)
The authors forecast the effects of COVID-19 on loan-delinquency rates under three scenarios for unemployment and house-price movements. Absent policy interventions, the model predicts peak loan-delinquency rates of 2.8 percent in the favorable scenario, 8.1 percent in the severe scenario, and 3.9 percent in the baseline scenario. The greatest reductions in delinquency are achieved through home mortgage forbearance and student loan forbearance, with fiscal transfers playing a smaller role.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-05 , Pages 4

Briefing
Will COVID-19 Leave Lasting Economic Scars?
Schwartzman, Felipe; Sablik, Timothy (2020-06)
Researchers and policymakers are wondering whether the economic losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will prove temporary or persistent. Examining the housing crisis of 2006–09 may provide some clues. Despite the fact that the housing crisis represented a temporary demand-side shock, it had lasting negative effects on employment and GDP in regions most exposed to the boom and bust in house prices.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-07 , Pages 5

Briefing
Understanding Discount Window Stigma
Price, David A.; Ennis, Huberto M. (2020-04)
The discount window is a tool that the Federal Reserve has long used to increase the stability of the financial system, but some believe its effectiveness is diminished by stigma: institutions may avoid borrowing from it out of concern that they may be perceived as being in weakened financial condition. Recent Richmond Fed research has shed new light on the functioning of the discount window and the role that stigma may play in achieving desirable outcomes.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-04 , Pages 5

Briefing
Inflation Targeting: Could Bad Luck Explain Persistent One-Sided Misses?
Hornstein, Andreas; Johnson, Joseph R.; Rhodes, Karl (2015)
In January 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee set an explicit inflation target of 2 percent, but the annual inflation rate has been 0.25 percentage points or more below that target for the past 10 quarters. Extended periods of one-sided misses are common among inflation-targeting countries, but it is not clear whether these persistent deviations are caused by structural changes, bad policy or bad luck. Analysis of the statistical properties of the inflation process in the United States suggests that bad luck remains a plausible explanation for the FOMC's current string of one-sided ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Sept

Briefing
Can orderly liquidation solve the problems of bailouts and bankruptcies?
Nash, Betty Joyce; Pellerin, Sabrina; Walter, John R. (2012)
In response to the financial crisis of 2007?09, Congress created the Orderly Liquidation Authority (OLA), a new regime for winding down systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) that become troubled. The OLA provisions address two conflicting goals: mitigating threats to the financial system associated with bankruptcy and minimizing moral hazard associated with government bailouts. This Economic Brief compares OLA provisions to bankruptcy procedures. Although the OLA process could be quicker and more flexible than bankruptcy, it may not limit systemic risk without increasing moral ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Sep

Briefing
Expanding the Scope of Workforce Development
Athreya, Kartik B.; Neelakantan, Urvi; Romero, Jessica Sackett (2014)
Workforce development efforts often are geared toward adult workers. But examining workforce development from the perspective of human capital theory suggests that earlier interventions may yield high returns.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue May

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