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Series:Review  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 

Journal Article
Schools and Stimulus

This article analyzes the impact of the education funding component of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) on public school districts. We use cross-sectional differences in district-level Recovery Act funding to investigate the program's impact on staffing, expenditures, and debt accumulation.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 2 , Pages 145-171

Journal Article
Taking Stock of the Evidence on Microfinancial Interventions

We review the empirical evidence on microfinance and asset grants to the ultra poor or microentrepreneurs and use quantitative economic theory to account for this evidence. Properly executed, these interventions can help segments of the population increase their income and consumption, but neither literature gives much reason to believe that such interventions can lead to wide-scale, transformative impacts akin to escaping aggregate poverty traps.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 2 , Pages 173-202

Journal Article
Reconstructing the Great Recession

This article uses dynamic equilibrium input-output models to evaluate the contribution of the construction sector to the Great Recession and the expansion preceeding it. Through production interlinkages and demand complementarities, shifts in housing demand can propagate to other economic sectors and generate a large and sustained aggregate cycle.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 3 , Pages 271-311

Journal Article
The Case of the Reappearing Phillips Curve: A Discussion of Recent Findings

The Phillips curve seems to have flattened over time. In this article, we use a simple New Keynesian model to analyze potential pitfalls in the estimation of the slope of the structural Phillips curve.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 3 , Pages 313-337

Journal Article
A Short Tour of Global Risks

This article is based on the author's Homer Jones Memorial Lecture delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Wednesday, June 25, 2019.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 3 , Pages 221-235

Journal Article
Offshoring to a Developing Nation with a Dual Labor Market

We present a model of offshoring of tasks to a developing nation characterized by a minimum-wage formal sector and a flexible-wage informal sector. Some offshored tasks are outsourced by the formal sector to the lower-wage informal sector.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 3 , Pages 237-253

Journal Article
Asset Pricing Through the Lens of the Hansen-Jagannathan Bound

Stochastic discount factor (SDF) models are the dominant framework for modern asset pricing. The Hansen-Jagannathan bound is a characterization of the admissible set of SDFs, given a vector of asset returns.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 3 , Pages 255-269

Journal Article
On the Aggregate Implications of Removing Barriers to Formality

This article examines the aggregate implications of several policies aimed at removing barriers to formality. To this end, we build a dynamic equilibrium model in which heterogeneous agents choose to work for a wage or operate a technology in the formal or informal sector, based on the costs and benefits associated with these occupational choices.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 2 , Pages 203-220

Journal Article
Is the Phillips Curve Still Alive?

A.W. Phillips's discovery that inflation is negatively correlated with unemployment served as a heuristic model for conducting monetary policy; but the flattening of the Phillips curve post-1970 has divided debate on this empirical relation into two camps: "The Phillips curve is alive and well," and "The Phillips curve is dead." However, this dichotomy oversimplifies the issue.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 2 , Pages 121-144

Journal Article
Strategic Review and Beyond: Rethinking Monetary Policy and Independence

I survey monetary policy strategy, regulation, and central banks’ mandates and independence. I do not think strongly negative interest rates, vastly expanded quantitative easing, or extensive forward guidance can or should stimulate in the next recession.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 2 , Pages 99-119

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