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Series:Review  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 

Journal Article
How fast is money growing?
AUTHORS: Bowsher, Norman N.
DATE: 1971-06

Journal Article
M1 or M2: which is the better monetary target?
AUTHORS: Batten, Dallas S.; Thornton, Daniel L.
DATE: 1983-06

Journal Article
The current state of U.S. household balance sheets
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for two of the most widely used datasets containing information about U.S. household balance sheets: the quarterly macro-level Financial Accounts of the United States (FA, formerly known as the Flow of Funds Accounts) and the triennial microlevel Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). The FA is very timely, but the data can be used only to describe the household sector as a whole. The SCF provides the micro-level detail needed to capture heterogeneity in household finances, but the data are available only with a long lag. The authors? key contribution in this article is their use of the FA dataset and other macro data sources to ?age? the micro- level SCF data forward through time to generate a representative sample for current-quarter policy analysis. They use this aging approach to compare and contrast pre- and post-recession trends in key indicators, such as net worth, debt-to-income ratios, debt service-to-income ratios, and housing loan-to-value ratios across families grouped by characteristics including income, age, and geography.
AUTHORS: Krimmel, Jacob; Smith, Paul A.; Sabelhaus, John; Moore, Kevin B.
DATE: 2013-09

Journal Article
Outlook for agriculture in 1983
AUTHORS: Belongia, Michael T.
DATE: 1983-02

Journal Article
The Aggregate Implications of Size-Dependent Distortions
This article examines the aggregate implications of size-dependent distortions. These regulations misallocate labor across firms and hence reduce aggregate productivity. The author then considers a case study of labor laws in France, where firms with 50 employees or more face substantially more regulation than firms with fewer than 50. The size distribution of firms is visibly distorted by these regulations: There are many firms with exactly 49 employees. A quantitative model is developed with a payroll tax of 0.15 percent that applies only to firms with more than 50 employees. Removing the regulation while holding total employment constant leads to an increase in output of around 0.3 percent.
AUTHORS: Roys, Nicolas
DATE: 2018

Journal Article
Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves, Policy Choices, and the U.S. Economy
China is both a major trading partner of the United States and the largest official holder of U.S. assets in the world. The value of Chinese foreign exchange reserves peaked at just over $4 trillion in June 2014 but has since declined to $3.19 trillion (as of August 2016). This very large decline in foreign exchange reserves is unprecedented, and some analysts have speculated that continued sales of these (mostly U.S.) assets might significantly impact the U.S. and global economies. This article explains the reasons for this large decline in official assets, China?s available policy choices, and how these choices could affect the U.S. economy.
AUTHORS: Neely, Christopher J.
DATE: 2017

Journal Article
The mechanics of a successful exchange rate peg: lessons for emerging markets
To the surprise of many market watchers, Thailand?s exchange rate peg to the dollar collapsed in July 1997, leading to similar rounds of currency devaluations in other East Asian countries. This study seeks to determine whether there were identifiable contrasts in implementation between Thailand?s peg and a perennially successful peg?Austria?s peg to the Deutsche mark?that would have hinted at problems for Thailand prior to July 1997. The comparison suggests that Thailand was not sufficiently vigilant about keeping its inflation rate low in the early 1990s. By 1995, Thailand faced a situation where a tight monetary policy involving high domestic interest rates would not always have created disinflationary pressure, as high interest rates also tended to attract greater capital inflow to Thailand. In this environment, Thailand?s monetary policy became erratic and failed to maintain the exchange rate peg.
AUTHORS: Dueker, Michael J.; Fischer, Andreas M.
DATE: 2001-05

Journal Article
Quick exits of subprime mortgages
All holders of mortgage contracts, regardless of type, have three options: keep their payments current, prepay (usually through refinancing), or default on the loan. The latter two options terminate the loan. The termination rates of subprime mortgages that originated each year from 2001 through 2006 are surprisingly similar: about 20, 50, and 80 percent, respectively, at one, two, and three years after origination. For loans originated when house prices appreciated the most, terminations were dominated by prepayments. For loans originated when the housing market slowed, defaults dominated. The similarity of the loan termination rates for all vintages in the sample suggests that subprime mortgage loans were intended to be "bridge" (i.e., temporary) loans. In addition, between 2001 and 2006, the number of terminated subprime purchase-money loans (loans used to purchase rather than refinance a house) outweighed the estimated number of first-time-homebuyers with subprime mortgages. The effect of the subprime lending on the increase of homeownership in the United States-a potentially positive outcome of subprime mortgages-most likely has been overstated.
AUTHORS: Demyanyk, Yuliya
DATE: 2009-03

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