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Series:Quarterly Review  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

Journal Article
On Using SIR Models to Model Disease Scenarios for COVID-19

From introduction: This paper is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 to aid understanding of how such a model might be incorporated into more standard macroeconomic models. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in which the total population is divided into categories of being susceptible to the disease (S); actively infected with the disease (I); and resistant (R), meaning those that have recovered, died from the disease, or have been vaccinated. The initial distribution of the population across these states and the ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 41 , Issue 01 , Pages 35

Journal Article
Early state banks in the United States: how many were there and where did they exist?

This article describes a newly constructed data set of all U.S. state banks from 1782 to 1861. It contains the names and locations of all banks and branches that went into business and an estimate of when each operated. The compilation is based on reported balance sheets, listings in banknote reporters, and secondary sources. Based on these data, the article presents a count of the number of banks and branches in business by state. I argue that my series are superior to previously existing ones for reasons of consistency, accuracy, and timing. The article contains examples to support this ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 30 , Issue Sep , Pages 28-40

Journal Article
District conditions

Quarterly Review , Volume 1 , Issue Fall

Journal Article
District conditions

Quarterly Review , Volume 5 , Issue Fall

Journal Article
Putting home economics into macroeconomics

The implications of adding household production to an otherwise standard real business cycle model are explored in this article. The model developed treats the business and household sectors symmetrically. In particular, both sectors use capital and labor to produce output. The article finds that the household production model can outperform the standard model in accounting for several aspects of U.S. business cycle fluctuations. ; This article is a summary of a chapter prepared for a forthcoming book, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, edited by Thomas F. Cooley, to be published by ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 17 , Issue Sum , Pages 2-11

Journal Article
SPDAs and GICs: like money in the bank?

We argue that changes in the life insurance industry have created a nontrivial moral hazard. We document the industry's shift from sales of life insurance to sales of mainly rate-of-return oriented investments like single premium deferred annuities (SPDAs) and guaranteed investment contracts (GICs). We describe the system of explicit and implicit guarantees that state governments and the industry provide to SPDA and GIC investors. We argue that these guarantees create moral hazards that have contributed to insurance company failures and misallocation of resources. We summarize reformers' ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Sum , Pages 2-17

Journal Article
How severe is the time-inconsistency problem in monetary policy?

This study analyzes two monetary economies, a cash-credit good model and a limited-participation model. In these models, monetary policy is made by a benevolent policymaker who cannot commit to future policies. The study defines and analyzes Markov equilibrium in these economies and shows that there is no time-inconsistency problem for a wide range of parameter values.
Quarterly Review , Volume 27 , Issue Sum , Pages 17-33

Journal Article
Integrating micro and macroeconomics: an application to credit controls

Quarterly Review , Volume 4 , Issue Fall

Journal Article
Money, inflation, and output under fiat and commodity standards

This study examines the behavior of money, inflation, and output under fiat and commodity standards to better understand how changes in monetary policy affect economic activity. Using long-term historical data for 15 countries, the study finds that the growth rates of various monetary aggregates are more highly correlated with inflation and with each other under fiat standards than under commodity standards. Money growth, inflation, and output growth are also higher under fiat standards. In contrast, the study does not find that money growth is more highly correlated with output growth under ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 22 , Issue Spr , Pages 11-17

Journal Article
International business cycles: theory vs. evidence

This article reviews recent work comparing properties of international business cycles with those of dynamic general equilibrium models. Two discrepancies between theory and data are described. One concerns the correlation across countries of fluctuations in consumption, output, and productivity: in the data, the output correlation is generally the largest; in theoretical economies, however, for a wide range of parameter values, the consumption correlation is the largest. The other discrepancy concerns relative price movements: the standard deviation of the terms of trade is considerably ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 17 , Issue Fall , Pages 14-29

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