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Series:Quarterly Review  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

Journal Article
Recent developments in modeling financial intermediation

Quarterly Review , Volume 11 , Issue Sum , Pages 19-29

Journal Article
Explaining financial market facts: the importance of incomplete markets and transaction costs

In this article, I suggest that incomplete markets and transaction costs are crucial for explaining the high equity premium and the low risk-free rate. I first demonstrate the failure of the complete frictionless markets model in explaining these return puzzles and then show how introducing incomplete markets and transaction costs can lead to success. Additionally, I explain how these features lead to predictions concerning individual consumptions, wealths, portfolios, and asset market transactions that are in better agreement with the facts than the predictions of the complete frictionless ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 17 , Issue Win , Pages 17-31

Journal Article
Maintenance and repair: too big to ignore

Most models of aggregate economic activity, like the standard neoclassical growth model, ignore the fact that equipment and structures are maintained and repaired. Once physical capital is purchased in these models, there are typically no more decisions made regarding its use. The theme of this article is that there is evidence to suggest that incorporating expenditures on the maintenance and repair of physical capital into models of aggregate economic activity will change the quantitative answers to some key questions that have been addressed with these models. This evidence is primarily ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 23 , Issue Fall , Pages 2-13

Journal Article
Why markets in foreign exchange are different from other markets

Quarterly Review , Volume 3 , Issue Fall

Journal Article
Modern business cycle analysis: a guide to the Prescott-Summers debate

Quarterly Review , Volume 10 , Issue Fall , Pages 3-8

Journal Article
The declining U.S. equity premium

This study demonstrates that the U.S. equity premium has declined significantly during the last three decades. The study calculates the equity premium using a variation of a formula in the classic Gordon stock valuation model. The calculation includes the bond yield, the stock dividend yield, and the expected dividend growth rate, which in this formulation can change over time. The study calculates the premium for several measures of the aggregate U.S. stock portfolio and several assumptions about bond yields and stock dividends and gets basically the same result. The premium averaged about 7 ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 24 , Issue Fall , Pages 3-19

Journal Article
The labor market in real business cycle theory

The standard real business cycle model fails to adequately account for two facts found in the U.S. data: the fact that hours worked fluctuate considerably more than productivity and the fact that the correlation between hours worked and productivity is close to zero. In this paper, in a unified framework, the authors describe and analyze four extensions of the standard model, by introducing nonseparable leisure, indivisible labor, government spending, and household production.
Quarterly Review , Volume 16 , Issue Spr , Pages 2-12

Journal Article
Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate

This paper is a case study of the use of vector autoregression (VAR) models to test economic theories. It focuses on the work of Christopher A. Sims, who in 1980 found that relationships in economic data generated by a small VAR model were inconsistent with those implied by a simple form of monetarist theory. The paper describes the work of researchers who criticized Sims' results as not robust and Sims' response to these critics. The paper reexamines all of this work by estimating hundreds of variations of Sims' model. The paper concludes that both Sims and his critics are right: Sims' ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Spr , Pages 19-37

Journal Article
Risk, regulation, and bank holding company expansion into nonbanking

When banking institutions can expand into other lines of business, some think they will diversify to reduce their total risk. Others think just the opposite. In this article, John H. Boyd and Stanley L. Graham explain the reasoning behind these two views and then test to see which one best describes the behavior of U.S. bank holding companies since 1970. They find that in 1971-77, when these companies were relatively free to invest in some new lines of business, diversification was associated with greater risk of failure. But in 1977-83, when the companies were more tightly regulated, that ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 10 , Issue Spr , Pages 2-17

Journal Article
The U.S. economy in 1977 and 1978

Quarterly Review , Volume 2 , Issue Win

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