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Working Paper
Emigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue Durée
Michalopoulos, Stelios; Franck, Raphael (2017-09-26)
During the French Revolution, more than 100,000 individuals, predominantly supporters of the Old Regime, fled France. As a result, some areas experienced a significant change in the composition of the local elites whereas in others the pre-revolutionary social structure remained virtually intact. In this study, we trace the consequences of the migrs flight on economic performance at the local level. We instrument emigration intensity with local temperature shocks during an inflection point of the Revolution, the summer of 1792, marked by the abolition of the constitutional monarchy and bouts ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 2

Working Paper
Spatial Structural Change
Eckert, Fabian; Peters, Michael (2022-09-22)
Between 1880 and 1920, the US agricultural employment share fell from 50% to 25%. However, despite aggregate demand shifting away from their sector of specialization, rural labor markets saw faster wage growth and industrialization than non-agricultural parts of the US. We propose a spatial model of the structural transformation to analyze the link between aggregate structural change and local economic development. The calibrated model shows that rural areas adapted to the decline of the agricultural sector by adopting technologies already in use in urban locations. Without such catchup ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 063

Working Paper
Can Reputation Discipline the Gig Economy? Experimental Evidence from an Online Labor Market
Sojourner, Aaron; Benson, Alan; Umyarov, Akhmed (2018-12-28)
Just as employers face uncertainty when hiring workers, workers also face uncertainty when accepting employment, and bad employers may opportunistically depart from expectations, norms, and laws. However, prior research in economics and information sciences has focused sharply on the employer?s problem of identifying good workers rather than vice versa. This issue is especially pronounced in markets for gig work, including online labor markets, where platforms are developing strategies to help workers identify good employers. We build a theoretical model for the value of such reputation ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 16

Working Paper
Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare
Berger, David W.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Mongey, Simon (2022-04-06)
It has long been argued that a minimum wage could alleviate efficiency losses from monopsony power. In a general equilibrium framework that quantitatively replicates results from recent empirical studies, we find higher minimum wages can improve welfare, but most welfare gains stem from redistribution rather than efficiency. Our model features oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms and yields analytical expressions that characterize the mechanisms by which minimum wages can improve efficiency, and how these deteriorate at higher minimum wages. We provide a method to ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 058

Working Paper
Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid
Sachs, Dominik; Findeisen, Sebastian; Colas, Mark (2018-09-07)
We study the optimal design of student financial aid as a function of parental income. We derive optimal financial aid formulas in a general model. For a simple model version, we derive mild conditions on primitives under which poorer students receive more aid even without distributional concerns. We quantitatively extend this result to an empirical model of selection into college for the United States that comprises multidimensional heterogeneity, endogenous parental transfers, dropout, labor supply in college, and uncertain returns. Optimal financial aid is strongly declining in parental ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 14

Working Paper
Who’s In and Who’s Out under Workplace COVID Symptom Screening?
Wozniak, Abigail; Ruffini, Krista; Sojourner, Aaron (2020-09-01)
COVID symptom screening, a new workplace practice, is likely to affect many millions of American workers in the coming months. Eleven states already require and federal guidance recommends frequent screening of employees for infection symptoms. This paper provides some of the first empirical work exploring the tradeoffs employers face in using daily symptom screening. First, we find that common symptom checkers will likely screen out up to 7 percent of workers each day, depending on the measure used. Second, we find that the measures used will matter for three reasons: many respondents report ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 36

Working Paper
Violence Against Women at Work
Adams-Prassl, Abi; Huttunen, Kristiina; Nix, Emily; Zhang, Ning (2022-11-28)
The #MeToo movement has demonstrated that assaults between colleagues are an internationally relevant phenomenon. In this paper, we link every police report in Finland to administrative data to identify assaults between colleagues, and the economic consequences for victims, perpetrators, and firms. This new approach to observe when one colleague attacks another overcomes previous data constraints limiting evidence on this phenomenon to self-reported surveys that do not identify perpetrators. We document large, persistent labor market impacts of between-colleague violence on victims and ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 064

Working Paper
Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil
Engbom, Niklas; Moser, Christian (2018-03-12)
We show that an increase in the minimum wage can have large effects throughout the earnings distribution, using a combination of theory and evidence. To this end, we develop an equilibrium search model featuring empirically relevant worker and firm heterogeneity. The minimum wage induces firms to adjust their equilibrium wage and vacancy policies, leading to spillovers on higher wages. We use the estimated model to evaluate the effects of a 119 percent increase in the real minimum wage in Brazil from 1996 to 2012. The policy change explains a large decline in earnings inequality, with ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 7

Working Paper
Market Size and Trade in Medical Services
Dingel, Jonathan; Gottlieb, Joshua D.; Lozinski, Maya; Mourot, Pauline (2023-04-04)
We measure the importance of increasing returns to scale and trade in medical services. Using Medicare claims data, we document that “imported” medical care—services produced by a medical provider in a different region—constitute about one-fifth of US healthcare consumption. Larger regions specialize in producing less common procedures, which are traded more. These patterns reflect economies of scale: larger regions produce higher-quality services because they serve more patients. Because of increasing returns and trade costs, policies to improve access to care face a ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 068

Working Paper
Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance
Fella, Giulio; De Nardi, Mariacristina (2020-12-23)
The extent to which households can self-insure and the government can help them to do so depends on the wage risk that they face and their family structure. We study wage risk in the UK and show that the persistence and riskiness of wages depends on one's age and position in the wage distribution. We also calibrate a model of couples and singles with two alternative processes for wages: a canonical one and a flexible one that allows for the much richer dynamics that we document in the data. We use our model to show that allowing for rich wage dynamics is important to properly evaluate the ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 44

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