The shadow labor supply and its implications for the unemployment rate
The number of people wanting work, but not looking for a job, has swelled in recent years. However, their flow rate back into unemployment has been declining, so they will likely only have a modest impact on the unemployment rate.
Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?
Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain
The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
Should monetary policy monitor risk premiums in financial markets?
The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums.
Flowing into Employment: Implications for the Participation Rate
Jos Mustre-del-Ro, Michael Redmond, and William Xu find more prime-age individuals are flowing into employment from outside the labor force, though effects on the participation rate could be limited by educational attainment.
Characterizing the 2014–16 Slowdown in Investment
Investment growth slowed from 2014 to 2016, a period when the overall economy was expanding. Using a statistical model, the author found a clear evidence that investment growth fluctuates between high and low growth regimes that usually correspond to expansions and recessions. However, during 2014?16, the investment sector experienced an isolated recession within an overall expansion, which is unusual by historical standards.
Do monetary policy shock affect trend labor productivity?
Willem Van Zandweghe examines whether monetary policy has had long-lasting effects on labor productivity and potential output.
The long-term outlook for U.S. residential construction
The recovery of U.S. housing construction paused during the first half of 2013. Stronger growth is likely to resume in the near term. But over the long term, home construction is likely to contract as aging baby boomers downsize.