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Series:International Finance Discussion Papers 

Working Paper
Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk

I investigate how natural disasters can exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities and trigger sovereign defaults. I extend a standard sovereign default model to include disaster risk and calibrate it to a sample of seven Caribbean countries that are frequently hit by hurricanes. I find that disaster risk reduces government's ability to issue debt and that climate change further restricts government's access to financial markets. Next, I show that "disaster clauses", that provide debt-servicing relief, allow governments to borrow more and preserve government's access to financial markets, amid rising ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1291

Working Paper
Technology, Geography, and Trade over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy

I study the dynamic effects of changes in trade policy in a multi-country model with firms that make durable and destination-specific investments in exporting capacity. Using Mexican exporter-level data, I show that incumbent exporters to minor trade partners account for a smaller share of bilateral exports than do incumbent exporters to major trade partners, indicating a systematic difference in the persistence of the export decision across destinations. The model is calibrated to capture the positive relationship between exporting persistence and export volume, and predicts that trade ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1304

Working Paper
Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

We examine the immediate effects and bounce-back from six modern health crises: 1968 Flu, SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), and Zika (2016). Time-series models for a large cross-section of countries indicate that real GDP growth falls by around three percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid, but output is still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1295

Working Paper
Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets

How are the optimal tax and debt policies affected if the government has the option to default on its debt? We address this question from a normative perspective in an economy with noncontingent government debt, domestic default and labor taxes. On one hand, default prevents the government from incurring future tax distortions that would come along with the service of the debt. On the other hand, default risk gives rise to endogenous credit limits that hinder the government's ability to smooth taxes. We characterize the fiscal policy and show how the option to default alters the near-unit ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1297

Working Paper
Fiscal Federalism and European Integration: Implications for Fiscal and Monetary Policies

This paper examines European economic integration in light of standard thinking about fiscal federalism. We first describe the main features of European integration, analyzing how institutions in the European Union fit the prescriptions of a federal system. We find that in some areas the European Union has already developed arrangements that fit standard views of fiscal federalism, in other areas there is gradual movement toward prescribed arrangements, and in still other areas the European Union s unique historical path may suggest some interesting new departures in the federalism ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 0694

Working Paper
The delayed response to a technology shock: a flexible price explanation

I present empirical evidence of how the U.S. economy, including per-capita hours worked, responds to a technology shock. In particular, I present results based on permanent changes to a constructed direct measure of technological change for U.S. manufacturing industries. Based on empirical evidence, some claim that hours worked declines and never recovers in response to a positive technology shock. This paper's empirical evidence suggests that emphasizing the drop in hours worked is misdirected. Because the sharp drop in hours is not present here, the emphasis rather should be on the small ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 810

Working Paper
The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent inflation ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 804

Working Paper
Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S.

Using data on trade-induced displacements, this paper documents that locations facing more foreign competition in the U.S. have: higher job destruction rates, lower job creation rates, and thereby lower employment rates. In contrast to standard trade theory, a model with variable markups and heterogeneous segmented labor markets is consistent with these facts. Foreign competition has a correlated effect on job destruction and job creation precisely because the most vulnerable locations also have lower productivity. Following an unexpected trade liberalization with limited mobility, employment ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1095

Working Paper
The information content of the interest rate and optimal monetary policy

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 192

Working Paper
The vicious circle argument and its relevance for the Italian economy

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 186

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Rogers, John H. 44 items

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