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Series:International Finance Discussion Papers 

Working Paper
Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts

Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, has never really been overturned despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One method that has been found to be remarkably useful for out-of-sample prediction is simple averaging of the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 779

Working Paper
International capital mobility in the 1990s

This paper surveys the performance of international capital markets and the literature on measuring international capital mobility. Three main functions of a globally integrated and efficient world capital market provide focal points for the analysis. First, asset-price arbitrage ensures that people in different countries face identical prices for a given asset. Second, to the extent that the usual market failures allow, people in different countries can pool risks to their lifetime consumption profiles. Third, new saving, regardless of its country of origin, is allocated toward the world's ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 472

Working Paper
Life expectancy of international cartels: an empirical analysis

This paper examines the empirical relation between market structure and life expectancy for cartels that were active in international commodity markets throughout this century. I consider two alternative empirical formulations and estimate their parameters recognizing that durability cannot take negative values. Both formulations predict that increases in either market shares or intercartel concentration prolong life expectancy but disagree in the relative importance of these two factors. The application of tests to discriminate among the two formulations does not support constant-elasticity ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 439

Working Paper
Oil price indexing versus large price shocks: macroeconomic impacts

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 180

Working Paper
The Performance of International Equity Portfolios

This paper evaluates the performance of U.S. investors' portfolios in the equities of over 40 countries over a 25-year period. We find that these portfolios achieved a significantly higher Sharpe ratio than foreign benchmarks, especially since 1990. We uncover three potential reasons for this success. First, U.S. investors abstained from momentum trading and instead sold past winners. Second, conditional performance tests provide no evidence that the superior (unconditional) performance owed to private information, suggesting that the successful exploitation of publicly available information ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 817

Working Paper
The portfolio-balance model of exchange rates

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 141

Working Paper
Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention and the conditional variance tale in DM/$-returns

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-deutsche mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 438

Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1135

Working Paper
Reserve requirements on Eurocurrency deposits: implications for the stabilization of real outputs

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 183

Working Paper
Securitization and Credit Quality

Banks are usually better informed on the loans they originate than outside investors. As a result, securitized loans might be of lower credit quality than ? otherwise similar ? non-securitized loans. We assess the effect of securitization activity on credit quality employing a uniquely detailed dataset from the euro-denominated syndicated loan market. We find that, at issuance, banks do not select and securitize loans of lower credit quality. Following securitization, however, the credit quality of borrowers whose loans are securitized deteriorates by more than those in the control group. We ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1148

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