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Series:International Finance Discussion Papers 

Working Paper
Implications of the U.S. current account deficit

In 1988, the United States recorded a current account deficit of about $135 billion. The consensus forecast seems to be for little change in the current account in the near term. In this paper, the implications of the U.S. current account deficit and of the consequent buildup in U.S. external debt are examined. The analytical framework for thinking about the U.S. current account is first surveyed, and the results from the empirical literature on the causes of the deficits in the 1980s are then reported. The sustainability of the U.S. external position is discussed next. It is concluded that, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 350

Working Paper
The effects of recent exchange rate changes on the U.S. trade balance

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 52

Working Paper
Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates

This paper tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of 22 emerging market economies. We use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates. Results show that stock returns, the term spread, default spreads and portfolio investment flows help predict output growth in emerging markets. We also find evidence that suggests that global aggregates such as the performance of commodity markets, a cross-sectional firm size factor, and returns on the market portfolio ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1174

Working Paper
The effect of multilateral trade clearinghouses on the demand for international reserves

This paper attempts to capture the portfolio incentives for central bank participation in a multilateral trade clearinghouse and to discuss the relation of those incentives to the volume of trade. Clearinghouses for the netting of multilateral intra-regional trade have existed since the 1950s, but no work to date has attempted to explore the incentive effects of such arrangements. Instead previous work, primarily empirical, has focused on the tendency of preferential arrangements (clearing as well as favorable protectionist policies) between nations to encourage trade flows between them. This ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 310

Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending : It’s All About Taxes

This paper investigates how government spending multipliers depend on the distribution of taxes across households. We exploit historical variations in the financing of spending in the U.S. since 1913 to show that multipliers are positive only when financed with more progressive taxes, and zero otherwise. We rationalize this finding within a heterogeneous-household model with indivisible labor supply. The model results in a lower labor responsiveness to tax changes for higher-income earners. In turn, spending financed with more progressive taxes induces a smaller crowding-out, and thus larger ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1237

Working Paper
Note on interest parity, Eurocurrencies and capital controls

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 80

Working Paper
Protection, real wage resistance and employment: an analysis of some proposals of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 150

Working Paper
Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 195

Working Paper
Violating the law of one price: should we make a federal case out of it?

We use new disaggregated data on consumer prices to determine why there is variability in prices of similar goods across U.S. cities. We address questions similar to those that have arisen in the international context: is this variability purely a result of market segmentation or do sticky nominal prices play a role? We also examine how the degree of tradability of a good influences price variability. Surprisingly, we find that variability is larger for traded goods. We attribute this finding to greater price stickiness for non-traded goods. Distance between cities accounts for a significant ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 644

Working Paper
How wide is the border?

Failures of the law of one price explain much of the variation in real C.P.I. exchange rates. We use C.P.I. data for U.S. cities and Canadian cities for 14 categories of consumer prices to examine the nature of the deviations from the law of one price. The distance between cities explains a significant amount of the variation in the prices of similar goods in different cities. But, the variation of the price is much higher for two cities located in different countries than for two equidistant cities in the same country. By our most conservative measure, crossing the border adds as much to the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 498

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