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Series:International Finance Discussion Papers 

Working Paper
The liquidity premium in average interest rates

This paper studies recent models of the liquidity effect of money on interest rates to determine if a systematic relationship between liquidity shocks and the economy could affect the average real interest rate.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 432

Working Paper
Options, sunspots, and the creation of uncertainty

We present a model in which the addition of an option market leads to sunspot equilibria in an economy which has no sunspot equilibrium before the market is introduced. This phenomenon occurs because the payoff of an option contract is contingent upon market prices, and while prices are taken as exogenous by individuals within the economy they are endogenous to the economy as a whole. Our results provide robust counterexamples to the two most prevalent views of options markets in finance. Following Ross [1976], it is often assumed that the addition of option contracts to an incomplete markets ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 510

Working Paper
Monetary policy independence in the ERM: was there any?

Recently proposals for introducing greater exchange rate fixity into the behavior of key exchange rates have become fashionable. One proposal, for example, suggests that a target zone arrangement for the dollar, mark and yen would represent a desirable reform of the international monetary system. The question we seek to address in this paper is how much monetary independence is likely to be conferred on a country participating in such an arrangement. Recent research for the Classical gold standard has suggested that even with a rigidly fixed exchange rate system there is still some scope for ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 665

Working Paper
Real interest rates during the disinflation process in developing countries

This paper addresses a phenomenon often noted in association with programs aimed at stabilizing high rates of inflation: a rise in the ex post real interest rate following implementation of the disinflation strategy. Such increases have been observed in connection with the stopping of European hyperinflations in the 1920s, as well as during the more recent experiences of disinflation in Argentina and Israel. To better understand this behavior, we develop a very general model of interest rate determination in a small open economy with two goods--traded and non-traded--and three assets--money, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 331

Working Paper
What Determines the Composition of International Bank Flows?

This paper studies how frictions to foreign bank operations affect the sectoral composition of banks? foreign positions, their funding sources and international bank flows. It presents a parsimonious model of banking across borders, which is matched to bank-level data and used to quantify cross-border frictions. The counterfactual analysis shows how higher barriers to foreign bank entry alter the composition of international bank flows and may reverse the direction of net interbank flows. It also highlights that interbank lending and lending to non-banking firms respond differently to changes ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1170

Working Paper
Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff

Our paper analyses the effects of restrictions on capital mobility on the output-inflation tradeoff. Using a stochastic version of the Mundell-Fleming model, we establish a theoretical presumption that an increase in restrictions on capital mobility should make the tradeoff parameter smaller, that is, a given change in the inflation rate should be associated with smaller movements in output. To measure the extent to which countries restrict capital movements, we construct an index using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. The estimates of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 577

Working Paper
The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises

This paper addresses the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises. Some observers have argued that a tightening of monetary policy is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate, restore confidence, and lay the groundwork for an eventual recovery of economic activity. Others have argued that by raising interest rates (which reduces the ability of borrowers to repay loans and thereby weakens the banking system), tightening may further reduce investor confidence and lead to further weakening--not strengthening--of domestic currencies. ; This debate, which became highly ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 669

Working Paper
The business cycles of currency speculation: a revision of the Mundellian framework

In his seminal 1960 study on the dynamics of alternative exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell proposed a theory of balance-of-payments crises in which speculators base their actions on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the quantitative implications of this view from the perspective of an equilibrium business cycle model in which rational expectations of a devaluation are conditioned on foreign reserves. The model explains some of the empirical regularities of the business cycle associated with temporary fixed-exchange-rate regimes. In turn, these cyclical ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 617

Working Paper
Some evidence on the efficacy of the UK inflation targeting regime: an out-of-sample forecast approach

Inflation targeting (IT)--a policy framework that directly targets an explicit inflation goal--has gained widespread attention recently as it has been adopted by several OECD countries. There is a growing body of literature on the ultimate long-term benefits of price stability and on theoretical issues related to inflation targeting. But the short duration of this practice has limited the number of works that empirically analyze the performance of IT regimes. This paper examines the British inflation targeting experience since 1993 by focusing on the out-of-sample forecast performance of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 565

Working Paper
The Replacement of Safe Assets: Evidence from the U.S. Bond Portfolio

The expansion in financial sector "safe" assets, largely in the form of structured products from the U.S. and the Caribbean, in the lead-up to the global financial crisis has by now been fairly well documented. Using a unique dataset derived from security-level data on U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities, we show that since the crisis, it is mostly the foreign financial sector that appears to have met U.S. demand for safe and liquid investment assets by expanding its supply of debt securities. We also find a strong negative correlation between the foreign share of the U.S. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1123

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Rogers, John H. 44 items

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