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Working Paper
Transitional dynamics of output and factor income shares: lessons from East Germany
Cociuba, Simona E. (2010)
I evaluate the quantitative implications of technology change and government policies for output and factor income shares during East Germany's transition since 1990. I model an economy that gains access to a high productivity technology embodied in new plants. As existing low productivity plants decrease production, the capital income share varies due to variation in the profit share of these plants. Two policies - transfers and government-mandated wage increases - have opposite effects on output growth, but both contribute to reducing the capital share during the transition. The model's ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 43

Working Paper
Should monetary policy \"lean or clean\"?
White, William R. (2009)
It has been contended by many in the central banking community that monetary policy would not be effective in "leaning" against the upswing of a credit cycle (the boom) but that lower interest rates would be effective in "cleaning" up (the bust) afterwards. In this paper, these two propositions (can't lean, but can clean) are examined and found seriously deficient. In particular, it is contended in this paper that monetary policies designed solely to deal with short term problems of insufficient demand could make medium term problems worse by encouraging a buildup of debt that cannot be ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 34

Working Paper
Currency blocs in the 21st century
Fischer, Christoph (2011)
Based on a classification of countries and territories according to their regime and anchor currency choice, the study considers the two major currency blocs of the present world. A nested logit regression suggests that long-term structural economic variables determine a given country's currency bloc affiliation. The dollar bloc differs from the euro bloc in that there exists a group of countries that peg temporarily to the U.S. dollar without having close economic affinities with the bloc. The estimated parameters are consistent with an additive random utility model interpretation. A ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 87

Working Paper
Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields
Hara, Naoko; Fatum, Rasmus; Yamamoto, Yohei (2019-01-27)
We consider the influence of domestic and U.S. macroeconomic news surprises on daily bond yields over the January 1999 to January 2018 period for four advanced Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) economies ? Germany, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. Our results suggest that the influence of macroeconomic news surprises is for all four countries under study during the NIRP period non-existent or noticeably weaker than during the preceding Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) period. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that NIRP is characterized by a lower bound that is no less ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 354

Working Paper
Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad (2023-01-18)
This paper is concerned with the problem of variable selection when the marginal effects of signals on the target variable as well as the correlation of the covariates in the active set are allowed to vary over time, without committing to any particular model of parameter instabilities. It poses the issue of whether weighted or unweighted observations should be used at the variable selection stage in the presence of parameter instability, particularly when the number of potential covariates is large. Amongst the extant variable selection approaches, we focus on the One Covariate at a time ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 394

Working Paper
Monetary policy, capital inflows, and the housing boom
Wieladek, Tomasz; Sa, Filipa (2011)
We estimate an open economy VAR model to quantify the effect of monetary policy and capital inflows shocks on the US housing market. The shocks are identified with sign restrictions derived from a standard DSGE model. We find that monetary policy shocks have a limited effect on house prices and residential investment. In contrast, capital inflows shocks driven by an increase in foreign savings have a positive and persistent effect on both housing variables. Other sources of capital inflows shocks, such as foreign monetary expansion or an increase in aggregate demand in the US, have a more ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 80

Working Paper
Technology Choice and the Long- and Short-Run Armington Elasticity
Cooke, Dudley (2019-11-22)
This paper studies the international transmission of productivity shocks when the Armington elasticity is endogenized through firms' technology choice. With costly adjustment, technology choice allows for a low short-run elasticity and a high long-run elasticity. I provide analytical results which demonstrate how technology choice provides a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle - the observed negative correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate. I then embed technology choice in a quantitative model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and endogenous producer ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 373

Working Paper
Flipping the Housing Market
Tse, Chung-Yi; Leung, Charles Ka Yui (2017-01-01)
We add arbitraging middlemen -- investors who attempt to profit from buying low and selling high -- to a canonical housing market search model. Flipping tends to take place in sluggish and tight, but not in moderate, markets. There is the possibility of multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium, most, if not all, transactions are intermediated, resulting in rapid turnover, a high vacancy rate, and high housing prices. In another equilibrium, few houses are bought and sold by middlemen. Turnover is slow, few houses are vacant, and prices are moderate. Moreover, flippers can enter and exit en ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 301

Working Paper
Technical note on "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?"
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Sondergaard, Jens (2008)
This technical note is developed in part as a mathematical companion to the paper ?The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?? (GMPI working paper no. 17). Our two-country model incorporates capital accumulation with adjustment costs, variable capital utilization and investment-specific technological shocks. Nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition distort the goods markets of each country and allow monetary policy to have real effects. We investigate two different international pricing scenarios, local-currency pricing (where the law of one price fails) and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 16

Working Paper
An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity
Balke, Nathan S.; Yücel, Mine K.; Brown, Stephen P. A. (2008)
The effect of oil price shocks on U.S. economic activity seems to have changed since the mid-1990s. A variety of explanations have been offered for the seeming change?including better luck, the reduced energy intensity of the U.S. economy, a more flexible economy, more experience with oil price shocks and better monetary policy. These explanations point to a weakening of the relationship between oil prices shocks and economic activity rather than the fundamentally different response that may be evident since the mid-1990s.> ; Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 20

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