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Working Paper
Pre-announcement effects, news, and volatility: monetary policy and the stock market
Bomfim, Antúlio N.
(2000)
I examine pre-announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions. The results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet--conditional volatility is abnormally low--on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements. Although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts, it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years, a result that I attribute to changes in the Federal Reserve's disclosure practices in early 1994. The paper also looks at how the actual ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2000-50
Working Paper
Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence
Hooker, Mark A.
(1997)
This paper analyzes tests of the Cagan hyperinflation-money demand model that have several advantages relative to those in the literature. They do not confound specification error with rational bubbles, are implementable with a linear procedure, and are frequently able to detect periodically collapsing bubbles that have challenged existing tests. After a Monte Carlo analysis, the tests are applied to data from hyperinflations in Austria, Germany, Hungary, and Poland. Strong evidence of model misspecification is found for Austria, while the model with a rational, explosive component well ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1997-49
Working Paper
What did the credit market expect of Argentina default? Evidence from default swap data
Zhang, Frank X.
(2003)
This article explores the expectations of the credit market by developing a parsimonious default swap model, which is versatile enough to disentangle default probability from the expected recovery rate, accommodate counterparty default risk, and allow flexible correlation between state variables. We implements the model to a unique sample of default swaps on Argentine sovereign debt, and found that the risk-neutral default probability was always higher than its physical counterpart, and the wedge between the two was affected by changes in the business cycle, the U.S. and Argentine credit ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2003-25
Working Paper
Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M.
(2004)
Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth--such as those experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s--are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. In this paper, we analyze the evolution of forecasts of long-run productivity growth during the 1970s and 1990s and examine in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model the consequences of gradual real-time learning on the responses to shifts in the long-run productivity growth rate. We find that a simple updating rule based on an estimated Kalman filter model using real-time data describes ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2004-21
Working Paper
Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recent research
Whelan, Karl; Rudd, Jeremy B.
(2005)
In recent years, a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky-price models to capture inflation dynamics. These models are seen as providing an empirically reasonable characterization of observed inflation behavior once suitable measures of the output gap are chosen; and, moreover, are perceived to be robust to the Lucas critique in a way that earlier econometric models of inflation are not. We review the principal conclusions of this literature concerning: 1) the ability of these models to fit the data; 2) the importance of rational forward-looking ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2005-66
Working Paper
For Better and for Worse? Effects of Access to High-Cost Consumer Credit
Dobridge, Christine L.
(2016-07)
I provide empirical evidence that the effect of high-cost credit access on household material well-being depends on if a household is experiencing temporary financial distress. Using detailed data on household consumption and location, as well as geographic variation in access to high cost payday loans over time, I find that payday credit access improves wellbeing for households in distress by helping them smooth consumption. In periods of temporary financial distress?after extreme weather events like hurricanes and blizzards?I find that payday loan access mitigates declines in spending on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-056
Working Paper
Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19
Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob; Splinter, David
(2021-08-02)
This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was very different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience large annual earnings declines and a similar share of male and female workers had large earnings declines. While most workers experiencing ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2021-052
Working Paper
Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans
Corinth, Kevin C.; Larrimore, Jeff
(2024-02-02)
We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. At age 36–40, Millennials had a real median household income that was 18 percent higher than that of the previous generation at the same age. This rate of intergenerational progress was slower than that experienced by the Silent Generation (34 percent) and Baby Boomers (27 percent), but similar to that experienced by Generation X (16 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2024-007
Working Paper
Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity
Garcia, Benjamin; Skaperdas, Arsenios
(2017)
We estimate a shadow rate consistent with the paths of time series capturing real activity. This allows us to quantify the real effects of unconventional monetary policy in terms of equivalent short-term interest rate movements. We find that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance had significant real effects equivalent of up to a four percent reduction in the federal funds rate.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-106
Working Paper
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Herbst, Edward; Schorfheide, Frank; Cai, Michael; Matlin, Ethan; Del Negro, Marco; Sarfati, Reca
(2020-02-28)
This paper illustrates the usefulness of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods in approximating DSGE model posterior distributions. We show how the tempering schedule can be chosen adaptively, document the accuracy and runtime benefits o fgeneralized data tempering for “online” estimation (that is, re-estimating a model asnew data become available), and provide examples of multimodal posteriors that are well captured by SMC methods. We then use the online estimation of the DSGE model to compute pseudo-out-of-sample density forecasts and study the sensitivity ofthe predictive performance to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-023
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K34 3 items
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L41 3 items
L63 3 items
M13 3 items
M52 3 items
O30 3 items
R11 3 items
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B41 2 items
C01 2 items
C12 2 items
C25 2 items
C26 2 items
C31 2 items
C40 2 items
C43 2 items
C60 2 items
C80 2 items
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D3 2 items
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E1 2 items
E10 2 items
F00 2 items
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F59 2 items
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G29 2 items
G3 2 items
H12 2 items
H26 2 items
H50 2 items
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H75 2 items
H8 2 items
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J6 2 items
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N10 2 items
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G0 1 items
H00 1 items
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M10 1 items
M37 1 items
M40 1 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
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Risk 63 items
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Financial stability 47 items
Bank loans 43 items
Unemployment 41 items
Inflation 40 items
Wages 38 items
Productivity 37 items
Bank capital 37 items
Stock - Prices 36 items
Liquidity 36 items
Consumption (Economics) 35 items
Consumer credit 33 items
Consumer behavior 32 items
Risk management 32 items
Taxation 32 items
Federal Reserve 31 items
Labor market 30 items
Phillips curve 30 items
Banks and banking 29 items
Mortgages 29 items
Uncertainty 29 items
Credit 28 items
Investments 27 items
Stock market 27 items
Bank lending 27 items
Employment 26 items
COVID-19 26 items
Financial crisis 26 items
Bank mergers 25 items
Economic forecasting 24 items
Effective lower bound 24 items
Labor supply 23 items
Debt 22 items
Mortgage loans 22 items
time series analysis 22 items
Financial crises 22 items
Inequality 21 items
Macroeconomics 21 items
Saving and investment 21 items
Stocks 21 items
Employment (Economic theory) 20 items
Financial institutions 20 items
Small business 20 items
Wealth 20 items
Zero lower bound 20 items
Fiscal policy 19 items
Income 18 items
Forward guidance 18 items
Systemic risk 18 items
Banks 17 items
Household finance 17 items
Liquidity (Economics) 17 items
Technology 17 items
Great Recession 17 items
Banking 16 items
Banking market 16 items
Econometrics 16 items
Housing - Prices 16 items
Bank deposits 15 items
Government securities 15 items
Labor productivity 15 items
Surveys 15 items
Asset pricing 14 items
Bankruptcy 14 items
Corporations - Finance 14 items
Discrimination 14 items
Financial markets 14 items
Heterogeneous agents 14 items
Human capital 14 items
Regulation 14 items
Volatility 14 items
Great inflation 14 items
Unconventional monetary policy 14 items
Aggregate risk 13 items
Capital 13 items
Commercial real estate 13 items
Credit cards 13 items
Credit supply 13 items
Derivative securities 13 items
Housing boom 13 items
Incomplete information 13 items
Money supply 13 items
Mortgages and credit 13 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 13 items
Natural Language Processing 13 items
Asymmetric loss function 12 items
Bonds 12 items
Climate change 12 items
Collateral 12 items
Consumption 12 items
Pensions 12 items
Symmetric loss function 12 items
Asset-backed financing 11 items
Capital market 11 items
Corporate bonds 11 items
Discretion 11 items
Federal funds market (United States) 11 items
Monetary policy implementation 11 items
Payment systems 11 items
Securities 11 items
Social security 11 items
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capital asset pricing model 11 items
Basel III 10 items
Economics 10 items
Federal funds rate 10 items
Households - Economic aspects 10 items
Inflation expectations 10 items
Repo 10 items
Savings and loan associations 10 items
Stablecoins 10 items
Volcker 10 items
Machine learning 10 items
Automobile industry and trade 9 items
Bank failures 9 items
Bank reserves 9 items
Bank supervision 9 items
Banking structure 9 items
Capital investments 9 items
Central bank digital currency 9 items
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Discount window 9 items
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Government-sponsored enterprises 9 items
Hedge funds 9 items
Industrial productivity 9 items
Investment 9 items
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Mutual funds 9 items
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Stock returns 9 items
Subprime mortgage 9 items
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Financial regulation 9 items
Inflation targeting 9 items
Bank disintermediation 8 items
Bank profits 8 items
Bayesian estimation 8 items
Central bank balance sheet 8 items
Central counterparties 8 items
Covenants 8 items
Debt Contract Enforcement 8 items
Deposit insurance 8 items
Entrepreneurship 8 items
Expectations 8 items
Funding for lending 8 items
Gross domestic product 8 items
Industrial capacity 8 items
Information technology 8 items
Macroprudential policy 8 items
Monetary policy tools 8 items
Money 8 items
OPEC Announcements 8 items
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Private Equity Funds 8 items
Rate of return 8 items
Real-time data 8 items
Search and matching 8 items
Structural Topic Models 8 items
Swaps (Finance) 8 items
Traders’ Positions 8 items
Financial Frictions 8 items
Amenities 7 items
Ancillary products 7 items
Bank competition 7 items
Branch banks 7 items
Consolidation and merger of corporations 7 items
Construction 7 items
Cost of living adjustments 7 items
Debt cancellation agreements 7 items
Discrimination in consumer credit 7 items
Economic indicators 7 items
Education 7 items
FOMC 7 items
Federal Open Market Committee 7 items
Financial services industry 7 items
GAP 7 items
GAP insurance 7 items
GAP waiver 7 items
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Inflation dynamics 7 items
Japan 7 items
Job quality 7 items
Manufactures 7 items
Menu costs 7 items
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Monetary policy - United States 7 items
Money market 7 items
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Mortgage 7 items
Pandemic 7 items
Real property 7 items
Rules 7 items
Runs 7 items
Stress tests 7 items
Student loans 7 items
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Well-being 7 items
Capital requirements 7 items
DSGE models 7 items
Auctions 6 items
Bank management 6 items
Bank risk 6 items
Bayesian methods 6 items
Bunching 6 items
Business enterprises 6 items
Capacity 6 items
Central banking 6 items
Computers 6 items
Corporate profits 6 items
Countercyclical policy 6 items
Credit risk 6 items
Economic development 6 items
Expenditures, Public 6 items
Fair lending 6 items
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve System 6 items
Federal funds market 6 items
Financial risk management 6 items
Financial stability and risk 6 items
Firm dynamics 6 items
Generations 6 items
Growth 6 items
Higher education 6 items
Insurance 6 items
Inventories 6 items
Labor force participation 6 items
Labor supply and demand 6 items
Leverage 6 items
Manufacturing 6 items
Margins (Security trading) 6 items
Market liquidity 6 items
Millennials 6 items
Minimum wage 6 items
Monetary policy transmission 6 items
Mortgage-backed securities 6 items
Over-the-counter markets 6 items
Payment system 6 items
Portfolio choice 6 items
Price discovery 6 items
Production 6 items
Property tax 6 items
Recessions 6 items
Refinancing 6 items
Research and development 6 items
Resilience 6 items
Securitization 6 items
Statistics 6 items
Sufficient statistics 6 items
Supply network 6 items
Time to plan 6 items
Treasury bills 6 items
401(k) plans 5 items
Administrative data 5 items
Arbitrage 5 items
Asset purchases 5 items
Asymmetric information 5 items
Automated tellers 5 items
Banks and banking - Costs 5 items
Banks and banking, Central 5 items
Big data 5 items
Broker-dealers 5 items
Business cycle 5 items
CBDC 5 items
Cash out refinancing 5 items
Central bank liabilities 5 items
Climate risk 5 items
Corporations 5 items
Data quality 5 items
DeFi 5 items
Dealers 5 items
Default 5 items
Disclosure 5 items
Dynamic factor model 5 items
Electronic funds transfers 5 items
Equity extraction 5 items
Equity premium 5 items
Financial leverage 5 items
Financial stress index 5 items
Forbearance 5 items
Foreign exchange rates 5 items
Full income 5 items
Housing 5 items
Housing supply 5 items
Income distribution 5 items
Industries 5 items
Institutional investors 5 items
International finance 5 items
Labor mobility 5 items
Local projections 5 items
Monetary theory 5 items
Open market operations 5 items
Optimal policy 5 items
Output gap 5 items
Production (Economic theory) 5 items
Retirement income 5 items
Rules and discretion 5 items
Search 5 items
Small open economies 5 items
Stocks - Rate of return 5 items
small business finance 5 items
Access to Credit 4 items
Asset prices 4 items
Auto loans 4 items
Automated underwriting 4 items