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Working Paper
Interest rate policies for price stability
AUTHORS: Brayton, Flint; Tinsley, Peter A.
DATE: 1993

Working Paper
What goes up must come down? Asymmetries and persistence in bank deposit interest rates
AUTHORS: Rosen, Richard J.
DATE: 1993

Working Paper
An overview of the secondary market for U.S. Treasury securities in London and Tokyo
AUTHORS: Stehm, Jeff; Madigan, Brian
DATE: 1994

Working Paper
The existence and impact of destabilizing positive feedback traders: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures market
AUTHORS: Kodres, Laura E.
DATE: 1994

Working Paper
Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve
Farmer and Nicol (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We estimate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries. Our preferred specification is the constrained version of the FM-model which has a marginal data density that is more than 30 log points higher than the NK alternative. Our findings also demonstrate that cross-country macroeconomic differences are well explained by the different shocks that hit each economy and by differences in the ways in which national central banks reacted to those shocks.
AUTHORS: Farmer, Roger E. A.; Nicolo, Giovanni
DATE: 2019-05-29

Working Paper
Commercial and residential land prices across the United States
We use a national dataset of land sales to construct land price indexes for 23 MSAs in the United States and for the aggregate of those MSAs. We construct the price indexes by estimating hedonic regressions with a large sample of land transactions dating back to the mid-1990s. The regressions feature a flexible method of controlling for spatial price patterns within an MSA. The resulting price indexes show a dramatic increase in both commercial and residential land prices over several years prior to their peak in 2006-07 and a steep descent since then. These fluctuations in land prices are considerably larger than those in well-known indexes of commercial real estate and house prices. Because those existing indexes price a bundle of land and structures, this comparison implies that land prices have been more volatile than structures prices over this period.
AUTHORS: Mulhall, Michael R.; Nichols, Joseph B.; Oliner, Stephen D.
DATE: 2010

Working Paper
Housing, consumption, and credit constraints
I test the credit-market effects of housing wealth shocks by estimating the consumption elasticity of house price shocks among households in different age quintiles. Younger households face faster expected income growth and hence would like to borrow more than older households. I estimate consumption elasticities from housing wealth by age quintile to be {4; 0; 3; 8; 3} percent. As predicted by theory, the youngest group has a higher elasticity of consumption than the next two age quintiles. That the consumption of the age quintile on the verge of retirement is responsive to housing wealth is also not surprising: I show that these households are likeliest to "downsize" their house and thus realize any capital gains.
AUTHORS: Lehnert, Andreas
DATE: 2004

Working Paper
The rigidity of labor: processing savings and work decisions through Shannon's channels
This paper argues that constraining people to choose consumption and labor under finite Shannon capacity produces results in line with U.S. business cycle data. My model has a simple partial equilibrium setting in which risk averse consumers keep high labor supply and low consumption profile at early stage of life to hedge against wealth fluctuations. They rationally choose to keep consumption and labor unchanged until they collect enough information. I find that at high frequency consumption appears to be more sluggish than labor supply. However, when people decide to change consumption they do so by a large amount. This combination leads to higher variance of consumption with respect to labor supply. My model also finds high persistence and strong comovement of consumption and employment and delayed response of consumption and labor with respect to wealth. Furthermore, my framework generates endogenously a wedge between marginal rate of substitution and marginal rate of transformation or wages. Such wedge is bigger and more volatile the lower information flow. These findings suggest that rational inattention offers a promising avenue to bridge the gap between theory and U.S. business cycle data.
AUTHORS: Tutino, Antonella
DATE: 2010

Working Paper
Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk
What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jord, 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves in response to economic shocks to the level of technology, monetary policy, and financial conditions. Furthermore, by studying various percentiles jointly, we study how the overall economic outlook-as characterized by the entire forecast distribution of GDP growth-shifts in response to shocks. We find that contractionary shocks disproportionately increase downside risk, independently of what shock we look at.
AUTHORS: Loria, Francesca; Matthes, Christian; Zhang, Donghai
DATE: 2019-04-15

Working Paper
The Community Reinvestment Act and the profitability of mortgage-oriented banks
The Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) requires lenders "to help meet the credit needs of the local communities in which they are chartered, consistent with the safe and sound operation of such institutions.'' For proponents of efficient markets, the CRA is a threat to lender profitability. For others, the CRA has the potential to increase profitability. We examine the relative profitability of commercial banks that specialize in mortgage lending in lower-income neighborhoods or to lower-income borrowers using three different techniques, and find that lenders active in lower-income neighborhoods and with lower-income borrowers appear to be as profitable as other mortgage-oriented commercial banks.
AUTHORS: Canner, Glenn B.; Passmore, Wayne
DATE: 1997

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