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Series:FRB Atlanta Working Paper 

Working Paper
Wages and unemployment across business cycles: a high-frequency investigation

This paper investigates the change in wages associated with a spell of unemployment. The novelty lies in using monthly data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to analyze the dynamics of those wage changes across different business cycles. The level of education or the sector of re-employment affects the change in wages following an unemployment spell differently across different downturns. The degree of wage rigidity varies across recessions; wage changes pre- and post-unemployment are sometimes procyclical and sometimes countercyclical. These results may be useful for ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2012-16

Working Paper
Specifying a consistent joint maximum-likelihood (JMLE) approach to testing bond models

In this paper we extend the results derived in our earlier work to develop a methodology to employ the maximum-likelihood estimation technique for the pricing of interest rate instruments. In order to price bonds and their derivative assets, researchers must identify a preference parameter in addition to the dynamics for the interest rate process. There are two approaches to obtaining estimators for both preference and dynamics parameters: (1) a two-stage approach and (2) a single-stage joint maximum-likelihood (JMLE) approach. The first approach, while tractable, suffers from serious ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 96-15

Working Paper
International money and common currencies in historical perspective

The authors review the history of international monies and the theory related to their adoption and use. There are four key characteristics of these currencies: high unitary value; relatively low inflation rates for long periods; issuance by major economic and trading powers; and spontaneous, as opposed to planned, adoption internationally. The economic theory of the demand for money provides support for the importance of these characteristics. The value of a unit is arbitrary for a fiat money, but the other characteristics are likely to be important for determining any fiat money that will ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2002-7

Working Paper
Old, sick, alone, and poor: a welfare analysis of old-age social insurance programs

Poor health, large acute and long-term care medical expenses, and spousal death are significant drivers of impoverishment among retirees. We document these facts and build a rich, overlapping generations model that reproduces them. We use the model to assess the incentive and welfare effects of Social Security and means-tested social insurance programs such as Medicaid and food stamp programs, for the aged. We find that U.S. means-tested social insurance programs for retirees provide significant welfare benefits for all newborn. Moreover, when means-tested social insurance benefits are of the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-02

Working Paper
A stochastic dominance approach to the evaluation of foreign exchange forecasts

FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 91-5

Working Paper
Price reactions to public announcements

We employ a parametric rational expectations equilibrium model to study the impact of public information releases on private information acquisition and asset prices in a large economy. We demonstrate that investors treat public information as a substitute for privately acquired information. Their attempts to substitute public for private information can amplify or even reverse the effect of public information releases on price volatility. The direction of the resulting change in price volatility is dependent on the level of public information regarding asset payoffs, the variance of asset ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 96-16

Working Paper
Subordinated debt and bank capital reform

In recent years there has been a growing realization that there are significant problems with the current bank risk-based capital guidelines. As financial firms have become more sophisticated and complex they have effectively arbitraged the existing capital requirements. They have become so good at avoiding the intent of capital regulation that the regulations have essentially ceased to be a safety and soundness issue for supervisors and have become more a compliance issue. There is also a growing realization that bank regulation must more effectively incorporate market discipline to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2000-24

Working Paper
Determinants of recent immigrants' locational choices

High levels of immigration to the United States have caused the size of the foreign-born population to increase dramatically in recent years. Recent immigrants are concentrated in several states, particularly California. This paper examines the determinants of the intended state of residence of new recipients of legal permanent-resident status and new refugees over the 1989-94 period. The presence of other foreign-born people is the primary determinant of the locational choices of new legal permanent residents, but there are some differences among immigrant groups by admission category and by ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 98-3

Working Paper
Flexible prices, labor market frictions, and the response of employment to technology shocks

Recent empirical evidence establishes that a positive technology shock leads to a decline in labor inputs. Can a flexible price model enriched with labor market frictions replicate this stylized fact? We develop and estimate a standard flexible price model using Bayesian methods that allows, but does not require, labor market frictions to generate a negative response of employment to a technology shock. We find that labor market frictions account for the fall in labor inputs.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-16

Working Paper
Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium economies: a likelihood approach

This paper presents a framework to undertake likelihood-based inference in nonlinear dynamic equilibrium economies. The authors develop a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers an estimate of the likelihood function of the model using simulation methods. This likelihood can be used for parameter estimation and for model comparison. The algorithm can deal both with nonlinearities of the economy and with the presence of non-normal shocks. The authors show consistency of the estimate and its good performance in finite simulations. This new algorithm is important because the existing ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2004-1

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