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Working Paper
Housing tenure and wealth distribution in life-cycle economies
Silos, Pedro (2005)
Common practice in the housing and wealth distribution literature has proceeded as if the modeling of housing rental markets was unnecessary due to renters? relative low levels of wealth and the small fraction they represent in the total population. This paper shows, however, that their inclusion matters substantially when dealing with wealth concentration over the life cycle. Renters are concentrated in the poorer and younger groups. This concentration results in a pattern of housing wealth concentration over an agent?s life that is decreasing, with a slope as steep as that of nonhousing (or ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2005-25

Working Paper
Barriers to international capital flows: when, why, how big, and for whom?
Yip, Chong K.; Espinosa-Vega, Marco A.; Smith, Bruce D. (2000)
Until recently, the trend in world capital markets has been toward increasing ?globalization.? Recent events in Latin America and Asia have forced a rethinking of the desirability of unrestricted world capital flows. In this paper we ask whether simple restrictions on capital mobility can succeed in reducing the volatility of funds flows, whether such restrictions are consistent with the long-term development of the countries that might impose them, whether such restrictions are beneficial for poorer countries while harming wealthier countries, and whether barriers to capital movements should ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2000-16

Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Willen, Paul S. (2013-08-01)
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-04

Working Paper
Small and orthodox fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound
Waki, Yuichiro; Korber, Lena Mareen; Braun, R. Anton (2013-12-01)
Does fiscal policy have large and qualitatively different effects on the economy when the nominal interest rate is zero? An emerging consensus in the New Keynesian literature is that the answer is yes. New evidence provided here suggests that the answer is often no. For a broad range of empirically relevant parameterizations of the Rotemberg model of costly price adjustment, the government purchase multiplier is about one or less, and the response of hours to a tax cut is either negative or close to zero.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-13

Working Paper
Comparing New Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach
Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Rabanal, Pau (2003)
This paper estimates and compares four versions of the sticky price New Keynesian model for the Euro area, using a Bayesian approach as described in Rabanal and Rubio-Ramrez (2003). We find that the average duration of price contracts is between four and eight quarters, similar to the one estimated in the United States, while price indexation is found to be smaller. On the other hand, average duration of wage contracts is estimated to between one and two quarters, lower than the one found for the United States, while wage indexation is higher. Finally, the marginal likelihood indicates that ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-30

Working Paper
Private international debt with risk of repudiation
Jeske, Karsten (2005)
The risk of repudiation plays a central role in the size and nature of international capital flows. In this paper the author addresses the question of whether, in a world of international capital flows with risk of default, strategic externalities provide a rationale for regulation of international borrowing. The author models centralized arrangements of international debt in which only governments borrow and lend internationally and decentralized arrangements in which individuals have access to international markets. The author shows that a centralized setup allows more international risk ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2001-16

Working Paper
The Anatomy of Out-of-Sample Forecasting Accuracy
Rapach, David E.; Borup, Daniel; Goulet Coulombe, Philippe; Montes Schütte, Erik Christian; Schwenk-Nebbe, Sander (2022-11-07)
We develop metrics based on Shapley values for interpreting time-series forecasting models, including“black-box” models from machine learning. Our metrics are model agnostic, so that they are applicable to any model (linear or nonlinear, parametric or nonparametric). Two of the metrics, iShapley-VI and oShapley-VI, measure the importance of individual predictors in fitted models for explaining the in-sample and out-of-sample predicted target values, respectively. The third metric is the performance-based Shapley value (PBSV), our main methodological contribution. PBSV measures the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-16

Working Paper
Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?
Wakerly, Elizabeth C.; Scott, Byron G.; Nason, James M. (2004)
It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another prevalent belief is that Canada forms an optimal currency area (OCA). The authors uncover three serially correlated common cycles whose asymmetries suggest Canada is not an OCA. Their common trend-common cycle decomposition of regional outputs also reveals that trend shocks dominate fluctuations in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2004-5

Working Paper
Federal Home Loan Bank advances and commercial bank portfolio composition
Passmore, Wayne; Hancock, Diana; Frame, W. Scott (2007)
This paper considers the role of Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances in stabilizing their commercial bank members' residential mortgage lending activities. Our theoretical model shows that using mortgage-related membership criteria or requiring mortgage-related collateral does not ensure that FHLB advances will be put to use for stabilizing members' financing of housing. Using panel vector autoregression (VAR) techniques, we estimate recent dynamic responses of U.S. bank portfolios to FHLB advance shocks, bank lending shocks, and macroeconomic shocks. Our empirical findings suggest that ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2007-17

Working Paper
What explains differences in foreclosure rates? a response to Piskorski, Seru, and Vig
Adelino, Manuel; Willen, Paul S.; Gerardi, Kristopher S. (2010)
In this note we discuss the findings in Piskorski, Seru, and Vig (2010) as well as the authors' interpretation of their results. First, we find that small changes to the set of covariates used by Piskorski, Seru, and Vig significantly reduce the magnitude of the differences in foreclosure rates between securitized and nonsecuritized loans. Second, we argue that early payment defaults (EPD) are not a valid instrument for the securitization status of the loans and that the empirical implementation chosen by the authors for using EPD is not a valid instrumental variables approach. Finally, we ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2010-08

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