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Series:Economic and Financial Policy Review 

Journal Article
The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 2 : extensions

In this second of two articles on the economic impact of fundamental tax reform, Gregory Huffman and Evan Koenig extend their earlier framework for analyzing how the adoption of a flat-rate consumption tax would affect the economy over time. They argue that if tax reform is to be successful in stimulating investment and raising long-run living standards, then it is important that ways be found to avoid increasing the rate of labor-income taxation. Increases in labor-income tax rates can undo the positive economic effects of a cut in the rate of capital-income taxation. Conversely, cuts in ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q II , Pages 1

Journal Article
Money market deposit accounts versus money market mutual funds

Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Nov , Pages 29-38

Journal Article
Explaining stock price movements: is there a case for fundamentals?

Some observers have argued that the run-up in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock price index during the 1990s was due to irrational exuberance rather than market fundamentals. This article presents evidence that the case for market fundamentals is stronger than it appears on the surface. Nathan Balke and Mark Wohar show that movements in the price-dividend and price-earnings rations have exhibited substantial persistence, particularly since World War II. Hence, using the long-run historical average value of the price/earnings or price/dividend ratio as the "normal" valuation ratio is ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q III , Pages 22-34

Journal Article
Effects of the lower dollar on U.S. manufacturing: industry and state comparisons

Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Mar , Pages 1-9

Journal Article
Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?

This article provides evidence consistent with recent policy proposals calling for a greater role for market forces in promoting a safe and sound financial system. The authors' empirical results indicate a measure of expected default probability distilled from equity prices helps predict the financial condition of individual banking organizations, as reflected in their supervisory ratings. Moreover, the stock market data have predictive power over and above the information in the quarterly financial statements available to supervisors between inspections. These findings suggest financial ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q II , Pages 2-9

Journal Article
Interest rate spreads, commodity prices, and the dollar: a new strategy for monetary policy?

Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Jul , Pages 13-26

Journal Article
Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: adapting Keynesian tools to non-Keynesian economies Part 2

The IS-LM diagram was developed as a tool for analyzing Keynesian economies-economies with sticky prices and myopic households. In Part 1 of this article, Evan Koenig showed how a graphical apparatus similar to the traditional IS-LM diagram can be used to analyze economies with a fixed capital stock and optimizing, forward-looking households. Part 2 extends the earlier analysis to an economy with capital investment. As before, an expectations-augmented variant of the IS-LM model is found to include a popular real-business-cycle model as a special case. Thus, the IS-LM diagram has wide ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 17-35

Journal Article
Indicators of the general price level and inflation

This article examines whether price indexes, such as the CPI, the PPI, and the implicit price deflator for GDP (PGDP), tell a consistent story about the general price level and inflation rate. To this end, Zsolt Becsi analyzes the time series properties of these indexes. He finds that the PGDP has a stable long-term relationship with both of the other price indexes. Some evidence suggests that PGDP and CPI inflation have common long-run trends, while PPI inflation has no discernible stable long-run relationship with either PGDP or CPI inflation. ; Some theories suggest that the price level ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 27-39

Journal Article
The economic impact of bank structure: a review of recent literature

The recent passage of the Financial Services Modernization Act, along with numerous bank mergers over the past few years, has focused attention on the banking system in general and on the sector's industrial organization in particular. Because of this, economists have recently begun developing theoretical models to more fully understand the economic impact of the industry's market structure. Mark Guzman reviews some of this research and draws two conclusions. First, a banking monopoly may benefit certain aspects of the economy. In particular, a monopoly bank can help overcome some of the ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q2 , Pages 11-25

Journal Article
The interest rate sensitivity of Texas industry

A key factor in forecasting a region's growth is anticipating how a region will respond to changes in national policy. One important way national policy affects a region is through real interest rates. Forecasting regional growth, therefore, requires good estimates of the interest rate sensitivity of regional industries. In this study, Lori Taylor and Mine Yucel use vector autoregression analysis to examine the relationship between changes in real short-term interest rates and changes in Texas industry employment. They find that while a few industries are moderately sensitive to interest rate ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q II , Pages 27-33

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Koenig, Evan F. 15 items

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