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Series:Economic Review  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Journal Article
Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data
Many people point to information and communications technology (ICT) as the key for understanding the acceleration in productivity in the United States since the mid-1990s. Stories of ICT as a general purpose technology (GPT) suggest that measured total factor productivity (TFP) should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital, spillovers, or both), but with a long lag. Contemporaneously, however, investments in ICT may be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. We find that U.S. industry results are consistent with GPT stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broad-basedlocated primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP accelerations in the 2000s are positively correlated with (appropriately weighted) industry ICT capital growth in the 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, after controlling for past ICT investment, industry TFP accelerations are negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the 2000s.
AUTHORS: Fernald, John G.; Basu, Susanto
DATE: 2008

Journal Article
The role of relative performance in bank closure decisions
This paper studies a banking industry subject to common and idiosyncratic shocks. We compare two types of regulatory closure rules: (1) an absolute closure rule, which closes banks when their assetliability ratios fall below a given threshold, and (2) a relative closure rule, which closes banks when their assetliability ratios fall sufficiently below the industry average. There are two main results: First, relative closure rules imply forbearance during bad times, defined as adverse realizations of the common shock. This forbearance occurs for incentive reasons, not because of irreversibilities or political economy considerations. Second, relative closure rules are less costly to taxpayers, and these savings increase with the relative variance of the common shock. To evaluate the model, we estimate a panel-logit regression using a sample of U.S. commercial banks. We find strong evidence that U.S. bank closures are based on relative performance. Individual and average asset-liability ratios are both significant predictors of bank closure.
AUTHORS: Spiegel, Mark M.; Kasa, Kenneth
DATE: 2008

Journal Article
The quantity and character of out-of-market small business lending
Most small business lending from banks originates with institutions that have a local branch, but out-of-market lending does not. Supporting the view that proximity is conducive to lending, I find that only about 10 percent of small business lending is from banks with no branch in the local market. About half of this appears to be from banks with a branch in the same state, further supporting the role of proximity, while, at the same time, supporting the current regulatory practice of considering out-of-market loans when assessing local competitive conditions. I also find that out-of-market and in-market loans are of similar average size and are about equally likely to be secured by commercial real estate.
AUTHORS: Laderman, Elizabeth
DATE: 2008

Journal Article
Regional growth and resilience: evidence from urban IT centers
After being emblematic of the U.S. economic surge in the late 1990s, urban areas that specialize in information technology (IT) products struggled in the aftermath of the IT spending bust, with most experiencing deeper and longer periods of economic decline than the nation as a whole. Seven years later, most have recovered, but only a few have regained the prominence of earlier years. In this paper, we consider the rise, the fall, and the recovery of urban IT centers and distinguish between the factors leading to temporary gains and those contributing to a more lasting growth path. Specifically, we examine the initial characteristics of the most prominent IT centers, linking these characteristics to a discussion of economic research concerning the sources of growth in urban industrial centers. We then follow these centers through the IT bust and subsequent economic recovery. The results indicate that, although each of our IT centers was hit hard by the IT bust beginning in 2000, the full impact of the decline and the subsequent pace of recovery varied considerably with the size, density, and composition of the local IT sector. The overall experience of the IT sector and the factors that ultimately seemed to separate those urban areas that succeeded from those that struggled suggest that inputs to the process such as education, research networks, and flexibility matter more than picking the right industry.
AUTHORS: Gerst, Jeremy; Daly, Mary C.; Doms, Mark
DATE: 2009

Journal Article
Do supervisory rating standards change over time?
Supervisory BOPEC ratings were assigned to bank holding companies (BHCs) during the years 1987 to 2004 as a summary of their overall performance and level of supervisory concern. In this article, we examine the stability of the BOPEC ratings assigned over that period. We model supervisory ratings using balance sheet variables, and our analysis suggests that BOPEC rating standards varied over time. Supervisors seem to have applied more stringent rating standards from 1989 to 1992, a period marked by a recession and a large degree of distress in the banking sector. Rating standards then eased during the economic recovery from 1993 to 1998, before showing increasing signs of toughness again from 1999 through 2004. Based on our estimated model parameters, we find that, in some cases, up to 25 percent of the BHCs that were assigned a BOPEC rating in a "tough" year would have been given a better rating in an "easy" year. The reasons for the observed variation in supervisory standards could be changes in supervisory behavior, but they are also surely related to the substantial changes that occurred within the U.S. banking system over this 17-year period.
AUTHORS: Lopez, Jose A.; Krainer, John
DATE: 2009

Journal Article
Money and the Monetary Control Act
AUTHORS: anonymous
DATE: 1981-01

Journal Article
Monetary-control implications of the Monetary Control Act
AUTHORS: Klein, Michael A.
DATE: 1981-01

Journal Article
The pricing of Federal Reserve services under MCA
AUTHORS: Zimmerman, Gary C.
DATE: 1981-01

Journal Article
Windfall profits, interest rates and index numbers
AUTHORS: anonymous
DATE: 1981-04




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