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Series:Economic Letter  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 

Journal Article
Steeling the U.S. Economy for the Impacts of Tariffs

Proposed steel and aluminum tariffs would likely trim a quarter percent from the U.S. gross domestic product over the long run. U.S. metals industries would likely expand, while heavy industries, such as machines and equipment, would probably contract along with aggregate capital formation. The main risks lie in the potential for retaliation by trading partners and the possibility of a trade war.
Economic Letter , Volume 13 , Issue 5 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Labor Market Not Overly Tight, Demographically Adjusted Measure Shows

Elevated inflation traditionally accompanies prolonged low unemployment rates, such as those currently observed in the U.S. However, price pressures have remained comparatively restrained, prompting further examination. The labor input utilization rate? the proportion of total hours individuals devote to work?provides insight when demographically adjusted, particularly when accounting for aging baby boomers. The indicator suggests the labor market wasn?t overly tight in second half 2018.
Economic Letter , Volume 13 , Issue 10 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Weakly capitalized banks slowed lending recovery after recession

The reluctance to lend played out particularly among a subset of banks?often larger institutions with very low ratios of capital to assets.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve

For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening?the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt?lasts about a year and is relatively small. After the first year, the impact on large banks? profitability becomes positive; for smaller institutions, it stays negative and becomes larger. Recent yield-curve flattening is likely to more strongly affect smaller banks, reducing their profitability.
Economic Letter , Volume 13 , Issue 8 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
External debt sheds light on drivers of exchange rate fluctuations

During a financial panic, a major driver of exchange rate fluctuations is a country?s amount of external debt, or funds borrowed from foreign lenders. However, not all debt has the same impact on rate movements.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Consumers Respond More to Negative News than Positive Info

Consumers, forced to navigate a constant stream of economic information, are often challenged to sort through details and respond to new material. Experiments suggest that people react more forcefully to negative income shocks than to positive ones. Size also matters: Reaction to small shocks is slower relative to the response to big shocks participation-rate decline.
Economic Letter , Volume 13 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Is the Next Recession Around the Corner? Probably Not

A ?profits recession? often predicts a real recession. A view of recessions as gluts of competition explains why this time a real recession is not imminent.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Global demographic trends shape policy environment

Demographics are key determinants of what is economically feasible at both the global and national levels. Demographics also have important implications for monetary policy. Slower population and labor force growth in the coming decades will have a depressing effect on real interest rates.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Deindustrialization redeploys workers to growing service sector

The decline of industrial employment in advanced economies is part of a long-term structural transition. A growing service sector, with an increasing share of jobs, has become key to long-run productivity growth.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 11 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Bank Asset Concentration Not Necessarily Cause for Worry

U.S. banking assets have become substantially more concentrated within a few large institutions. However, decreasing relative rates of big-bank growth and of idiosyncratic volatility?an indicator of individual bank susceptibility to shocks and a resulting redistribution of assets?suggest a reduction in systemic financial system risk through contagion.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

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