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Journal Article
Relating commodity prices to underlying inflation: the role of expectations
Davis, J. Scott (2011)
Temporary supply factors may boost some commodity prices?a drought in the Midwest can jolt food costs, or a conflict in the Middle East might propel oil higher. These, in turn, can increase the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the headline inflation rate. ; Because central bank anti-inflation measures sometimes take a long time to affect prices, policymakers don?t necessarily react to short-term fluctuations in headline inflation (an overall rate that?s not seasonally adjusted). In fact, the mandate of many inflation-targeting central banks is to aim to keep headline inflation at a ...
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
Why are exchange rates so difficult to predict?
Wang, Jian (2008)
A quarter-century quest hasn't found the elusive links between economic fundamentals and currency values. ; The U.S. dollar has been losing value against several major currencies this decade. Since 2001-02, the U.S. currency has fallen about 50 percent against the euro, 40 percent against the Canadian dollar and 30 percent against the British pound .
Economic Letter , Volume 3

Journal Article
The Big Mac: a global-to-local look at pricing
Landry, Anthony (2008)
The global, national, regional and local factors that shape price-setting behavior are complex, even for a relatively simple product that's neither easily tradable nor wholly nontradable.
Economic Letter , Volume 3

Journal Article
Ties that bind: bilateral trade's role in synchronizing business cycles
Ramanarayanan, Ananth (2009)
For most of the past year, economies in all parts of the world have been weakening--from outright recessions in the U.S. and parts of Europe to sharply slower growth in China, India and other emerging economies. The pattern provides the latest example of international business-cycle synchronization--the tendency for countries to experience macroeconomic fluctuations of similar timing and magnitude. ; While today's synchronization isn't unusual, it raises questions about the forces that transmit economic fluctuations from one country to another. An important factor to consider is international ...
Economic Letter , Volume 4

Journal Article
Increased credit availability, rising asset prices help boost consumer spending
Organ, Elizabeth; Murphy, Anthony; Duca, John V. (2016-04)
A combination of much less household debt, revived access to consumer credit and recovering asset prices have holstered U.S. consumer spending. This trend will likely continue despite an estimated 50 percent reduction since the mid-2000s of the housing wealth effect?an important amplifier during the boom years.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 3 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Mexico's financial vulnerability: then and now
Quintin, Erwan; Lopez, Jose Joaquin (2006)
Financial turmoil dots Mexico?s recent economic history. Between 1975 and 1995, the nation experienced recurrent currency, debt and banking crises with devastating effects on real economic activity. ; In Mexico, election years often heighten the risk of financial instability. Debt defaults or massive devaluations?or both?have accompanied three of the past five presidential elections. Given that history, it?s not surprising that questions about Mexico?s financial vulnerability have arisen with the approach of July?s presidential election. ; While the concerns may be understandable, Mexico has ...
Economic Letter , Volume 1

Journal Article
Inflation measurement gives us food for thought
Dolmas, Jim (2011-05)
Global food prices are soaring. Since February 2009, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization world food price index has risen roughly 67 percent, surpassing the previous peak in June 2008 (Chart 1). The last food price surge, from early 2007 to mid-2008, prompted riots in many countries; the latest rise has also fueled riots and may have been a factor in political unrest sweeping through North Africa and the Middle East.
Economic Letter , Volume 6 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Recovering from the housing and financial crisis
Luttrell, David; Duca, John V. (2010)
The recent recession was unusual because it stemmed from an unsustainable easing of credit standards and financing, which fueled the prior expansion but also the imbalances that led to the worst recession since the 1930s. When losses on new financial practices ended excessive lending, the economy was hit by housing and credit shocks, culminating in a financial crisis. Home construction plunged, wealth fell, credit standards tightened and financial markets seized up. ; The initial impacts of these four shocks on gross domestic product (GDP) were amplified by cyclical interactions between ...
Economic Letter , Volume 5

Journal Article
Long view of China suggests inevitable slowdown
Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2015-10)
Market reforms account for almost half of China?s growth miracle since 1978. However, the pace of expansion is bound to slow down as China approaches the technological frontier.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 10 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Miracle to malaise: what's next for Japan?
Koo, Jahyeong; Cox, W. Michael (2006)
Economic Letter , Volume 1

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