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Series:Economic Letter 

Journal Article
Beyond the outsourcing angst: making America more productive

Economic Letter , Volume 1

Journal Article
Central bank transparency anchors inflation expectations

A high statistical correlation can be found between the level of policy transparency among central banks and the anchoring of inflation expectations.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 4 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Consuming price differences persist among eight Texas cities

The differences in what consumers pay for a given product in eight Texas cities increased considerably in the 2000s?Dallas being by far the most expensive city in the sample. A strong price adjustment mechanism, however, ensures that the relative price between any two Texas locations tended to rapidly revert to its mean value
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 14 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Deindustrialization redeploys workers to growing service sector

The decline of industrial employment in advanced economies is part of a long-term structural transition. A growing service sector, with an increasing share of jobs, has become key to long-run productivity growth.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 11 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Economic rebounds in U.S. and euro zone: deceivingly similar, strikingly different

The global downturn following Lehman Brothers? failure in September 2008 has become known as the Great Recession for good reason: It was the most severe global economic contraction since the Great Depression. As the dust settles, patterns among key macroeconomic variables have emerged. Identifying them may make it possible to understand the nature of the downturn and, thus, determine which policies might best address its fallout.
Economic Letter , Volume 7

Journal Article
Survey-based forecasts identify likely inflation outcomes

Professional forecasters generally better predict inflation than household surveys and often outperform nave year-ahead forecasts based on the Fed?s 2 percent target. Constants, the basis of the nave forecasts, benefit because they are not subject to month-to-month volatility.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 8 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Gauging the odds of a double-dip recession amid signals and slowdowns

Public sentiment says the recession isn't over. Never mind that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of recessions, declared that the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 officially ended in June 2009. An unrelenting pessimism constrains the recovery as consumers spend reluctantly while paying down debt, gripped by persistent fears of unemployment. The economy grew at a 2.5 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP), a moderate improvement after two quarters of decelerating growth during the recovery. ...
Economic Letter , Volume 5 , Issue 12 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Ties that bind: bilateral trade's role in synchronizing business cycles

For most of the past year, economies in all parts of the world have been weakening--from outright recessions in the U.S. and parts of Europe to sharply slower growth in China, India and other emerging economies. The pattern provides the latest example of international business-cycle synchronization--the tendency for countries to experience macroeconomic fluctuations of similar timing and magnitude. ; While today's synchronization isn't unusual, it raises questions about the forces that transmit economic fluctuations from one country to another. An important factor to consider is international ...
Economic Letter , Volume 4

Journal Article
Crude oil export ban benefits some … but not all

Lifting the U.S. ban on crude oil exports would alleviate a growing glut of oil at the Gulf Coast refineries and should eventually reduce retail gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting U.S. consumers.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Getting a Jump on Inflation

Accurate official estimates of Fed policymakers? preferred PCE inflation measure take months, and sometimes years, to become available. A small set of timelier indicators offers realtime power to ?nowcast? PCE inflation. Those indicators provide as much accuracy as initial government estimates and remain informative even after official estimates have been published.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 9 , Pages 1-4




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