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Series:Economic Letter 

Journal Article
Distance and the impact of ‘gravity’ help explain patterns of international trade

United States trade with other countries declined dramatically during the recent recession, with the volumes of imports and exports each falling about 21 percent from third quarter 2008 to second quarter 2009. By comparison, real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted only 4 percent (Chart 1). A subsequent rebound in international trade flows is just as striking and has been one of the most robust indicators during the accelerating recovery.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
Commodity futures investing: method to the madness

Just as there are popular indexes that measure the value of groups of stocks, such as the Dow Jones industrial average, there are indexes that do the same for commodity futures.
Economic Letter , Volume 7

Journal Article
When will the U.S. housing market stabilize?

The hope that housing markets had stabilized in mid-2010 was dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices (Charts 1 and 2). Homebuilding peaked about five years ago, and housing prices almost four years ago. Amid such a prolonged downturn, a key question becomes, When will the housing market stabilize and support the economic recovery? We suggest that new home construction may stabilize and start recovering slowly within the next year or so. Our econometric results also indicate that national house prices may hit bottom late this year or in early 2012 and then recover slowly.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
Risk, uncertainty separately cloud global growth forecasting

Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 9 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Falling off the fiscal cliff

Some suggest the best alternative strategy may be to combine short-term spending with longer-term fiscal consolidation?though such a strategy may be easier said than done.
Economic Letter , Volume 7

Journal Article
Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates Stand Out

Male and female prime-age labor force participation rates have declined in the U.S. at a faster rate than in most developed countries over the past 20 years, even among people with a college degree. Stark differences in health outcomes, incarceration rates, and labor market, maternity and child-care policies provide potential explanations for the disproportionate participation-rate decline
Economic Letter , Volume 13 , Issue 6 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
The Big Mac: a global-to-local look at pricing

The global, national, regional and local factors that shape price-setting behavior are complex, even for a relatively simple product that's neither easily tradable nor wholly nontradable.
Economic Letter , Volume 3

Journal Article
Middle-skill jobs lost in U.S. labor market polarization

The number of people performing low-skill, low-pay, manual labor tasks has grown along with the number undertaking high-skill, high-pay, nonroutine, principally problem-solving jobs.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 5 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Fiscal fitness: the U.S. budget deficit’s uncertain prospects

Recent headlines tell us U.S. budget deficits have been shrinking in the past few years, but Washington?s fiscal fitness remains a matter of concern.
Economic Letter , Volume 2

Journal Article
Emerging-market debtor nations likely to follow Fed rate boosts

A Federal Reserve interest rate increase can lead to capital flows reversing and exiting emerging markets. Central banks in emerging markets that are highly dependent on outside capital will be tempted to match the Fed increase in an attempt to curb capital flight.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-4




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Wynne, Mark A. 12 items

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Chudik, Alexander 9 items

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Davis, J. Scott 8 items

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