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Series:Economic Letter 

Journal Article
Volatility-selling strategies carry potential systemic cost

Investors have increasingly turned to stock market volatility-selling strategies based on the idea of selling implied volatility and buying it back later when it falls to a level more consistent with realized volatility.
Economic Letter , Volume 8

Journal Article
Has greater globalization made forecasting inflation more difficult?

U.S. inflation and real economic activity became more difficult to forecast during the Great Moderation. We investigate the possibility that the decline in the ability to forecast inflation may be due to greater globalization. As countries become more integrated through trade and financial flows, domestic inflation has a larger foreign component that is determined by variables typically excluded from forecasts.
Economic Letter , Volume 4

Journal Article
Financial market tremors: causes and responses

Excerpts from speeches by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, Richard W. Fisher.
Economic Letter , Volume 3

Journal Article
Durable goods and the collapse of global trade

Global trade has experienced a stunning collapse in the current recession, with the World Trade Organization estimating a decrease of roughly 9 percent in 2009--the biggest contraction since the Second World War. The swift decline caused substantial damage to the global economy, hitting Japan and other countries with large trade sectors especially hard. It also raised concerns that the trade collapse would worsen the global recession and delay recovery. ; Several factors contributed to the global trade collapse. However, the ultimate causes are tied to the global financial crisis that started ...
Economic Letter , Volume 5

Journal Article
When will the U.S. housing market stabilize?

The hope that housing markets had stabilized in mid-2010 was dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices (Charts 1 and 2). Homebuilding peaked about five years ago, and housing prices almost four years ago. Amid such a prolonged downturn, a key question becomes, When will the housing market stabilize and support the economic recovery? We suggest that new home construction may stabilize and start recovering slowly within the next year or so. Our econometric results also indicate that national house prices may hit bottom late this year or in early 2012 and then recover slowly.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
The 'Great Moderation' in output and employment volatility: an update

The reduced aggregate volatility that began in 1984 has continued into the new millennium.
Economic Letter , Volume 2

Journal Article
'Rational inattention' guides overloaded brains, helps economists understand market behavior

Between Internet news sources, social media and email, people are awash in information, most of it accessible at near-zero cost. Yet, humans possess only a finite capacity to process all of it. The average email user, for example, receives dozens of messages per day. The messages can?t all receive equal attention. How carefully does someone read an email from a sibling or friend before crafting a reply? How closely does a person read an email from the boss?> ; Limitations on the ability to process information force people to make choices regarding the subjects to which they pay more or less ...
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
With reforms in China, time may correct U.S. current account imbalance

The U.S. current account deficit has deepened significantly since the late 1990s. This shortfall?the value of net exports of goods and services, international financial investment net income and transfer payments?was $803 billion at its peak in 2006, or 6 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Conversely, China, Germany, Japan and the oil-exporting countries have been running current account surpluses that have risen substantially (Chart 1). This divergence has raised concerns among policymakers, economic researchers and private investors about whether these imbalances are sustainable ...
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
Global stock market linkages reduce potential for diversification

Recent European government debt difficulties demonstrate how linked stock markets have become. Problems in countries such as Greece and Italy have depressed stock markets not only on the continent but also in the United States. Such comovement across international financial markets highlights U.S. equity markets? exposure to foreign markets.
Economic Letter , Volume 7

Journal Article
Inflation measurement gives us food for thought

Global food prices are soaring. Since February 2009, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization world food price index has risen roughly 67 percent, surpassing the previous peak in June 2008 (Chart 1). The last food price surge, from early 2007 to mid-2008, prompted riots in many countries; the latest rise has also fueled riots and may have been a factor in political unrest sweeping through North Africa and the Middle East.
Economic Letter , Volume 6




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