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Series:Economic Commentary  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

Journal Article
Consumers and COVID-19: Survey Results on Mask-Wearing Behaviors and Beliefs

Masks or cloth face coverings have the potential to help reduce the spread of COVID-19 without greatly disrupting economic activity if they are widely used. To assess the state of mask wearing, we surveyed US consumers about their recent and prospective mask-wearing behavior. We find that most respondents are wearing masks in public but that some respondents are less likely to follow social-distancing guidelines while doing so, indicating a potential tradeoff between two of the recommended methods that jointly reduce coronavirus transmission. While most respondents indicated that they were ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 20 , Pages 7

Journal Article
Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator

We use advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act as an indicator of current and imminent labor market conditions. We have constructed a database of establishment-level notices starting in 1990 by scraping state government websites, contacting state officials, and retrieving historical data. We find evidence that these notices, aggregated to the national level, lead other prominent labor market indicators, such as initial unemployment insurance claims, the change in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The lead ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2019 , Issue 21

Journal Article
Is the Middle Class Worse Off Than It Used to Be?

We analyze how median real incomes in the United States have changed since 1980 under a definition of the middle class that adjusts for changes in demographics. We find that failing to adjust for demographic shifts in the population relating to age, race, and education can indicate a more positive outlook than is truly the case. We also find that the real median incomes of today’s middle class are somewhat higher than they used to be, particularly for households headed by two adults. We find, as in prior research, that prices for housing, healthcare, and education have risen more than ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 03 , Pages 6

Journal Article
A Brief History of Bank Capital Requirements in the United States

Modern capital requirements can appear to be overly complex, but they reflect centuries of practical experience, compromises between different regulators, and legal and financial systems that developed over time. This Commentary provides a historical perspective on current discussions of capital requirements by looking at how the understanding of bank capital and the regulations regarding its use have changed over time.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 05 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Lessons on the Economics of Pandemics from Recent Research

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a dual public health and economic crisis. Many economic studies in the past few months have explored the relationship between the spread of disease and economic activity, the role for government intervention in the crisis, and the effectiveness of testing and containment policies. This Commentary summarizes the methods and findings of a number of these studies. The economic research conducted to date shows that adequate testing and selective containment measures can be effective in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the absence of ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 11 , Pages 7

Journal Article
The Unemployment Cost of COVID-19: How High and How Long?

We use flows into and out of unemployment to estimate the unemployment rate over the next year. This approach produces less stark projections for the unemployment rate over the course of the next year than some of the more alarming projections that have been reported. Using our approach and assuming that the severest social-distancing measures will be lifted in June, we estimate that the unemployment rate will peak in May at about 16 percent but gradually decline thereafter and end the year at 7.5 percent.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 09

Journal Article
Do Affirmative Action Bans Cause Students to Move Across State Lines to Attend College?

This Economic Commentary studies whether statewide bans on affirmative action in admission to public universities cause students to move to a new state to attend college. Regression results using data from the decennial census and the American Community Survey provide little evidence that affirmative action bans result in migration across state lines to attend college. In addition to being of direct interest, these results provide a check on earlier research that treats different states roughly as separate higher education markets.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 04 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Revisiting Wage Growth after the Recession

In this Commentary, we show that realized wage growth since 2015 has mostly been at a rate that would be expected given observed rates of inflation and labor productivity growth. Moreover, labor productivity growth has been in line with its potential over the same period. This picture of the post-recession recovery of wages is very different from the one we observed in an earlier analysis, when all we had were data up through the end of 2015. The reasons underlying the difference are large revisions in labor productivity data and upticks in the inflation rate and labor productivity growth ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 02 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary

To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holdsan annual conference on the topic of inflation: “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics.” This Commentary summarizes thepapers presented at the 2019 conference.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2019 , Issue 22 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Financial Stability: Risks, Resilience, and Policy

As the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout continue, policymakers keep a watchful eye on the stability of the financial system. Having learned many lessons from the financial crisis of 2007–2009, they may again turn to that crisis for insights into potential vulnerabilities emerging in the financial sector and ways to make financial markets and institutions more resilient to shocks. At a recent conference on financial stability, 12 papers and two keynotes explored this ground. This Commentary summarizes the papers’ findings and the keynotes.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 22 , Pages 4

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Humpage, Owen F. 48 items

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