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Series:Economic Commentary  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

Journal Article
FDIC policies for dealing with failed and troubled institutions
A discussion of how the FDIC's policies for handling bank failures can have unintended, and undesirable, effects on the banking system.
AUTHORS: Thomson, James B.; Caliguire, Daria B.
DATE: 1987

Journal Article
Do Oil Prices Predict Inflation?
Some analysts pay particular attention to oil prices, thinking they might give an advance signal of changes in inflation. However, using a variety of statistical tests, we find that adding oil prices does little to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. Our results suggest that higher oil prices today do not necessarily signal higher CPI inflation next year, although they do help to explain short-term movements in the CPI.
AUTHORS: Waiwood, Patricia; Pasaogullari, Mehmet
DATE: 2014

Journal Article
Are households saving enough for a secure retirement?
The recent rise in the personal saving rate has been interpreted as a sign that consumers are paying down their debt and repairing the damage done to their nest eggs. But a close analysis suggests that many people are falling short of saving what they will need to maintain their standard of living in retirement. A growing body of research in behavioral economics, a branch of economics that studies the choices people make at the individual level, offers explanations for why that is, as well as new approaches to the problem.
AUTHORS: Henry, LaVaughn M
DATE: 2013

Journal Article
Do commodity prices signal inflation?
Do the rising commodity prices we have seen in recent years reflect basic supply-and-demand developments in various commodity markets, or are they the fi rst signs of inflation? In practice, it?s not always easy to tell the difference - for the public or policymakers - but fundamentally different they are. Central banks can do nothing about relative commodity price pressures, since central banks do not produce commodities. Likewise, commodity-price shocks do not impair the ability of central banks to control inflation in principle, but they can greatly complicate the task.
AUTHORS: Humpage, Owen F.
DATE: 2011

Journal Article
Payment system risk and financial reform
An opinion by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President W. Lee Hoskins that shrinking the federal safety net, including the payments system, must be a precondition of financial reform in the United States.
AUTHORS: Hoskins, W. Lee
DATE: 1990

Journal Article
How much U.S. technological innovation begins in universities?
Technological progress has been the key to improved living standards, but how and where do new ideas get their start? The answer might give us some insight into how we can support greater innovation. Some suggest universities have been an important source of innovative technology. A look at the people involved in the development of patented technologies can give an idea of how much innovation originates in universities.
AUTHORS: Marschke, Gerald; Kim, Jinyoung
DATE: 2007

Journal Article
Breaking the inflation-recession cycle
A discussion of recessions, caused by inflationary monetary policies as well as nonmonetary surprises, and a prescription for attaining maximum sustainable economic growth.
AUTHORS: Hoskins, W. Lee
DATE: 1989

Journal Article
Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: the Great Moderation and monetary policy
Observations that the Phillips curve may be deviating from historical norms are important to policymakers because deviations would imply that more or less output has to be sacrificed to achieve a permanent reduction in long-term inflation. But we argue that recent economic shocks and a shift in the Fed?s response to inflation may be leading economists to misestimate the curve.
AUTHORS: Fuerst, Timothy S.; Carlstrom, Charles T.
DATE: 2008

Journal Article
Why is stable money such a big deal?
What do attempts to counterfeit an enemy?s currency during wartime have in common with decisions to adopt another country?s currency during peacetime? Both are inspired by the power of a stable monetary standard and, conversely, the consequences of losing it. Both illustrate why preserving the value of the nation?s currency is a central bank?s most important responsibility.
AUTHORS: Altig, David E.
DATE: 2002

Journal Article
Demographic differences in inflation expectations: what do they really mean?
It has often been reported that different demographic groups show persistent differences in their inflation expectations. Some reasonable explanations have been suggested, but most have failed to fully explain these apparent differences. We argue that the demographic differences have been overstated by using the mean to describe differences across demographic groups. When we use the median to describe inflation expectations, we find little meaningful difference across demographic groups.
AUTHORS: Meyer, Brent; Venkatu, Guhan
DATE: 2011

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