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Journal Article
Long-term health care: is social insurance desirable?
Gokhale, Jagadeesh; Leovic, Lydia K. (1993-12)
A look at why the private insurance market has failed to cover long-term care risks adequately, and an evaluation of several proposals for funding such care through social insurance.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Journal Article
The CPI–PCEPI Inflation Differential: Causes and Prospects
Janson, Wesley; Binder, Carola; Verbrugge, Randal (2020-03-02)
The Federal Open Market Committee’s inflation target is stated in terms of the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI). The PCEPI, like the consumer price index (CPI), measures inflation in the expenditures of households, but these indexes differ in purpose, scope, and construction. Notably, since the CPI is used as the reference rate for numerous financial contracts, one can derive implied longer-run CPI inflation forecasts from financial contracts. Such forecasts are widely reported. But if policymakers are to use these forecasts to guide their pursuit of the inflation ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 06 , Pages 8

Journal Article
Consumers and COVID-19: Survey Results on Mask-Wearing Behaviors and Beliefs
Schoenle, Raphael; Knotek, Edward S.; Dietrich, Alexander; Muller, Gernot J.; Weber, Michael; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. (2020-07-16)
Masks or cloth face coverings have the potential to help reduce the spread of COVID-19 without greatly disrupting economic activity if they are widely used. To assess the state of mask wearing, we surveyed US consumers about their recent and prospective mask-wearing behavior. We find that most respondents are wearing masks in public but that some respondents are less likely to follow social-distancing guidelines while doing so, indicating a potential tradeoff between two of the recommended methods that jointly reduce coronavirus transmission. While most respondents indicated that they were ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 20 , Pages 7

Journal Article
Improving inflation forecasts in the medium to long term
Zaman, Saeed (2013-11)
To accurately forecast the future rate of inflation, it is imperative to account for inflation?s underlying trend. This is especially important for medium- to long-run forecasts. In this Commentary I demonstrate a simple but powerful technique for incorporating this trend into standard statistical time series models and report the gains to accuracy. I find that incorporating the trend by modeling inflation as gap from an estimated underlying trend leads to substantial gains in forecast accuracy of about 20 percent to 30 percent, two to three years out.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Making Sense of Eviction Trends during the Pandemic
Martin, Hal (2022-08-23)
Eviction filings have largely returned to their prepandemic levels in 2022 after a long period of being below trend. In this Economic Commentary, I describe the trends in eviction filings collected so far during the pandemic and pandemic-era policies aimed at mitigating the damage of the pandemic on housing stability. I show that restrictions on evictions, common early in the pandemic, are associated with lower levels of eviction filings; that recent rent-price growth is associated with higher levels of eviction filings; and that the timing of eviction trends varies in response to the federal ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2022 , Issue 12 , Pages 8

Journal Article
The Overhang of Structures before and since the Great Recession
Jacobson, Margaret M.; Occhino, Filippo (2014-03)
Investment in structures is still 29 percent below its pre-recession peak. Using a new indicator of the level of structures that would be warranted by economic conditions, we find evidence that the level of investment was too high in the first half of the 2000s. This overinvestment created an overhang of structures which has held down the growth of investment in structures during the recovery.
Economic Commentary , Issue March

Journal Article
Methods of cash management
Carlson, John B. (1982-04)
A description of cash management methods, covering collection, disbursement, and investment techniques. Topics include lock boxes, wire transfers, depository transfer checks, controlled disbursement, zero balancing, money-market instruments, and sweeping arrangements.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Assessing progress toward price stability: looking forward and looking backward
Carlson, John B. (1994-05)
An examination of how to assess the inflationary effects of current monetary policy, reviewing the behavior of a selected measure of core inflation over the past decade and contrasting this pattern with the inflation expectations of both households and professional forecasters, concluding that such expectations are formed rationally.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
U.S. ethnic scientists and entrepreneurs
Kerr, William R. (2007-04)
Immigrants are exceptionally important for U.S. technology development, accounting for almost half of the country?s Ph.D. workforce in science and engineering. Most notably, the contribution of Chinese and Indian scientists and entrepreneurs in U.S. high-technology sectors increased dramatically in the 1990s. These ethnic scientific communities in the United States further help transfer new technologies back to their home countries.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?
Zaman, Saeed; Tallman, Ellis W. (2012-10)
In the wake of Great Recession, the Federal Reserve engaged in conventional monetary policy actions by reducing the federal funds rate. But soon the rate hit zero, and could go no lower. In such environments, policymakers still think in terms of where the federal funds rate should be, were it possible to go negative. To project the ?unconstrained path? of the funds rate?ignoring the zero lower bound?and to identify the key underlying shocks driving that path, we employ a statistical macroeconomic forecasting model. We find that the federal funds rate would have been extremely negative during ...
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

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