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Series:Economic Commentary 

Journal Article
Central bank credibility

Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig announced he would crack down on steroid use in baseball, hoping to stop players from doping. He was forced to discipline stars like Rafael Palmeiro, possibly hurting the game immediately, in order to develop a reputation for being tough on steroids. The Federal Reserve System has worked hard over the past few decades not only to lower inflation and keep it low, but also to convince the public that it is dedicated to delivering low inflation over the long haul. This Commentary explains why credibility is so important to monetary policymakers.
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Shocks and the economic outlook

The U.S. economy has recently been hit by a number of supply shocks, and businesses and consumers have seen oil, food, and materials prices rise as a result. Such shocks typically take several years to play themselves out completely. I apply a downsized version of a macroeconomic forecasting model in use at the Cleveland Fed to project the likely quantitative impact of the shocks on GDP growth and consumer prices.
Economic Commentary , Issue June

Journal Article
The debt burden: what you don't see

An examination of the federal deficit and a discussion of how an increasing debt burden could cause a serious threat to long-term U.S. economic growth.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
The future of inflation

According to consumer price measures like the CPI, inflation has recently jumped up a notch. What those measures don?t tell us is whether the increase will persist. In this Commentary, we look at a measure that does. The measure incorporates data on past inflation rates, surveys of expected inflation, inflation swaps, and a variety of interest rates. It provides estimates of inflation, along with expected inflation and real interest rates. A look at the measure?s estimates suggests that the recent increases in inflation are likely to be temporary.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Will taxing imports help?

An examination of the possible impact on U.S. consumers and producers of placing an across-the-board tariff surcharge on imported goods.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Trends in Revenues at US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013

This Economic Commentary studies trends in inflated-adjusted revenues per student at US colleges and universities in broad revenue categories between 1987 and 2013. The findings show that, as is widely perceived, tuition revenue has risen over time at both public and private institutions. In recent years, tuition revenue at public institutions has been nearly as large a source of revenue as state and local government funding has been. Revenue from state and local governments has fluctuated at public institutions but has generally fallen over time, whereas funding from the federal government ...
Economic Commentary , Issue March

Journal Article
Merger Control in the Banking Sector

This Commentary discusses the implications of merger control policy on merger activity in the banking sector, drawing on an analysis of the European banking sector during a period in which stricter merger policies were being introduced. It identifies several changes to the bank mergers taking place after the introduction of the stricter policies that are consistent with higher expected returns for shareholders and more procompetitive transactions. The evidence suggests that the new merger policy was successful in preventing mergers that are excessively anticompetitive, while it also led to ...
Economic Commentary , Issue August

Journal Article
The national depositor preference law

A critical analysis of the probable effects of national depositor preference--a provision of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993--showing that although the FDIC may experience some cost savings in the short term, the long-term benefits are likely to be greatly diminished.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Stamp scrip: money people paid to use

Substitutes for government-issued money are produced and used from time to time even in countries like the United States. Understanding why people turn to these substitutes and to what degree they are successful?or not?can teach us a lot about the elements essential to a well-functioning currency.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Stock market fundamentals

An explanation of the primary factors driving stock market fundamentals and an examination of how well those factors explain--or fail to explain--current market trends.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan




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Humpage, Owen F. 48 items

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