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Journal Article
Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?
Doh, Taeyoung; Foerster, Andrew (2022-12-21)
The Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy has expanded beyond changing the federal funds rate to include forward guidance and balance sheet policy. Using these tools may shorten lags in monetary policy transmitting to inflation. Using a proxy funds rate that incorporates tightening from these additional policy tools, we find evidence of a shorter lag in policy transmission to inflation since 2009, though with high associated uncertainty.
Economic Bulletin , Issue December 21, 2022 , Pages 3

Journal Article
The Evolving Relationship between COVID-19 and Financial Distress.
Wilkinson, Olivia; Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2021-02-24)
During most of the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with high financial distress saw disproportionately more infections and deaths than regions with low financial distress. As of February 2021, cumulative infections appear more evenly distributed. However, total deaths remain higher in financially distressed regions.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 24, 2021 , Pages 3

Journal Article
Women Are Driving the Recent Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
Tuzemen, Didem; Tran, Thao (2019-12-18)
The labor force participation rate of prime-age individuals (age 25 to 54) in the United States declined dramatically during and after the Great Recession. While the rate remains below its pre-recession level, it has been increasing steadily since 2015. We examine how different demographic groups have contributed to this rebound and find that college-educated women have made the largest contribution to the recent recovery in the prime-age labor force participation rate.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Dec 18, 2019 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?
Lusompa, Amaze; Sattiraju, Sai (2023-05-10)
Underlying inflation—the rate of inflation that prevails after temporary imbalances in the economy are resolved—can help policymakers gauge whether current high rates of inflation are likely to persist. Using survey-based inflation expectations, we show that if current inflation forecasts are realized, underlying inflation should decline toward 2 percent in 2024. However, if inflation continues to surprise to the upside, underlying inflation may remain elevated for some time.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2020-07-15)
With the federal funds rate near zero, policymakers are evaluating options for providing additional monetary policy accommodation, including a tool known as yield curve control. We find that despite low nominal Treasury yields, some scope for additional accommodation remains should policymakers deem it appropriate. However, we argue that forward guidance about future interest rates could deliver much, though not all, of the accommodation of yield curve control.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
COVID-19 Poses Risks for State and Local Public Pensions
Felix, Alison (2020-08-19)
If the coronavirus pandemic leads to a protracted recession, public pension funding could weaken further in the years to come. During the 2001 and 2007–09 recessions, investment returns failed to reach pension plans’ longer-term assumed returns, and shortfalls in state and local government budgets led some employers to temporarily reduce contributions. If pension funding falls during the current crisis, state and local governments may choose to adjust plan structures as they did after the Great Recession.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Cook, Thomas R.; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-01-17)
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Understanding the Recent Rise in Municipal Bond Yields
Gulati, Chaitri; Dice, Jacob; Bi, Huixin; Marsh, W. Blake (2020-05-27)
In late March, investors sold off municipal bonds at a rapid pace, depressing municipal bond prices and driving up their yields relative to U.S. Treasuries. We find that this initial investor run on the municipal bond market was likely due to increased liquidity demand rather than credit concerns, making the Federal Reserve’s early actions to relieve liquidity stress effective. Going forward, however, municipal bond prices will likely reflect increased credit concerns.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 27, 2020 , Pages 4

Journal Article
U.S. Federal Debt Has Increased, but Appears Sustainable for Now
Bi, Huixin; Yang, Shu-Chun S.; Shen, Wenyi (2020-11-16)
The unprecedented fiscal stimulus packages that Congress passed earlier this year provided timely assistance to households and businesses, but also led to a sharp increase in U.S. federal government debt. We find that the current net federal debt level of about 100 percent of GDP does not pose a threat to fiscal sustainability. Over a longer horizon, debt sustainability will depend, to a large extent, on whether the federal government can curb mandatory spending or raise taxes.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks
Sengupta, Rajdeep (2020-05-11)
In March, the global coronavirus pandemic led to a period of financial stress in which credit conditions tightened at an unprecedented pace. Elements of this stress period can be explained as a classic run on “shadow banks”—nonbank financial institutions that fund long-term assets with short-term debt. Although timely Federal Reserve interventions restored some calm to markets, shadow banks remain vulnerable to future runs because they lack the safeguards available to regulated depository institutions.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 11, 2020 , Pages 5

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