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Journal Article
Federal Enhancements to Unemployment Insurance Supported Tenth District Incomes in 2020
McCoy, John (2021-09-08)
Federal supplements to state unemployment insurance mitigated income losses from COVID-19-related disruptions across the country. In the Tenth Federal Reserve District, many workers who lost jobs had their wages at least fully replaced by federally supported unemployment insurance. In some district states, total income—the sum of unemployment benefits and wages earned from employment—exceeded levels that might have been observed in the absence of the pandemic.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Disruptions Can Be Seen Anywhere, but Their Costs Are Not the Same Everywhere
Sly, Nicholas; Soderbery, Anson (2022-01-12)
Although ubiquitous, supply chain challenges are exerting more cost pressures on the types of businessesconcentrated in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Businesses in the region are less willing or able to adjustthe amount of imported goods they purchase even when procurement prices rise precipitously, as they have over the past year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue January 12, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Assessing Market Conditions ahead of Quantitative Tightening
Sengupta, Rajdeep; Smith, Andrew Lee (2022-07-11)
Quantitative tightening (QT)—the reduction in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet—will transfer a significant amount of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities to investors. This transfer will be larger than the first endeavor with QT in 2017 and will occur at a time when financial markets are strained, suggesting this round of QT has the potential to be more disruptive compared with the benign start to the 2017 runoff.
Economic Bulletin , Issue July 11, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Safe-Haven Performance in the Age of Bitcoin
Minhas, Sabrina; Rodziewicz, David; Ruiz, Rebecca; Maniff, Jesse Leigh (2020-04-15)
In past periods of financial stress, investors seeking “safe havens” have shifted toward government bonds and gold. In recent years, some have questioned whether Bitcoin could also serve as a safe haven. We compare the behavior of government bonds, gold, and Bitcoin from January 1995 through February 2020 and find that the 10-year Treasury note behaved like a safe haven consistently, gold occasionally, and Bitcoin never. During March 2020, however, none of the assets can be classified with confidence as a safe haven.
Economic Bulletin , Issue April 15, 2020 , Pages 4

Journal Article
COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization
Brown, Jason; Felix, Alison (2020-06-17)
COVID-19 and attempts to slow its spread have led to a decline in economic activity unprecedented in both severity and speed. Although every part of the United States experienced dramatic decreases in activity, states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, with lower COVID-19 cases as a percentage of the population, have fared slightly better. More recently, national and regional measures of business and consumer activity have improved but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
When the Music Stops: Slowing Wage Growth May Lead to More Delinquent Debt
Brown, Jason; Tousey, Colton (2023-03-24)
Subprime auto debt has risen nearly 10 percent above pre-pandemic levels, and delinquency rates have increased despite high wage growth in the economy. Historically, high wage growth has been associated with lower transitions into delinquency. Should wage growth slow, delinquency rates would likely rise even higher, especially among subprime borrowers.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Commodity Prices Have Limited Influence on U.S. Food Inflation
Cowley, Cortney; Scott, Francisco (2022-09-23)
Food prices increased at the fastest pace in more than two decades from July 2021 to July 2022. We show that this increase has not been driven by commodity prices but by an increase in consumer spending on food at home and increases in costs along the supply chain. Our results suggest that food inflation could ease if consumers shift more purchases back to food service establishments and if costs in food processing and marketing abate. Conversely, food inflation could remain high if broader measures of inflation persist.
Economic Bulletin , Issue September 23, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
The Evolving Relationship between COVID-19 and Financial Distress.
Wilkinson, Olivia; Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2021-02-24)
During most of the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with high financial distress saw disproportionately more infections and deaths than regions with low financial distress. As of February 2021, cumulative infections appear more evenly distributed. However, total deaths remain higher in financially distressed regions.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 24, 2021 , Pages 3

Journal Article
Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output
Cook, Thomas R.; Lusompa, Amaze; Nie, Jun (2022-11-04)
The Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent oil sanctions from European countries have substantially disrupted the supply of Russian oil and gas. We estimate the effects of these disruptions on European output and find that a decline in the Russian oil and gas supply in 2022 could lead to a sizable drop in European output over 2023–24, though the effect differs across countries and sectors .
Economic Bulletin , Issue November 4, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
The KC Fed LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Markets
Pollard, Emily; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2023-02-03)
The Federal Open Market Committee has been quickly raising the federal funds rate to lower inflation. However, services inflation remains high, supported by a tight labor market with high wage growth. Recent readings in the LMCI momentum indicator suggest monetary policy tightening is beginning to weigh on labor markets, which may eventually lead to lower services inflation and lower inflation overall.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 3rd, 2023 , Pages 4

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