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Journal Article
Price Pressures for U.S. Exporters and a Strong Dollar Have Increased Inflation in Foreign Countries
Matschke, Johannes; Sattiraju, Sai (2022-08-31)
As the higher demand for imported goods during the pandemic has moderated, U.S. export prices have become an important factor in determining inflationary pressures from the United States. As of 2022:Q2, export prices increased by 11.8 percent annualized, far exceeding the historical average of 3.75 percent. Further, 58 percent of the increase in export prices can be attributed to the recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while the remaining 42 percent can be attributed to price pressures for U.S. exporters.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 31, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Community Bank Funding Is Getting Costlier and Riskier
Laliberte, Brendan; Marsh, W. Blake; Sharma, Padma (2023-12-19)
Banks’ core funding has been under pressure since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began raising rates in early 2022. As depositors shift funds out of low-yielding savings and noninterest-bearing deposit accounts and into more lucrative alternative investments, community banks have increasingly turned to longer-maturity deposits and borrowings to finance their balance sheets. Although these funding sources allow banks to retain their asset size, they are both more expensive and potentially less stable.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Drilling Productivity in the United States: What Lies Beneath
Brown, Jason; Colton, Tousey; Rodziewicz, David (2019-05-22)
We construct new measures of drilling productivity and find that productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017. Gains in below-ground efficiency?the number of barrels produced per foot of drilled wells?have largely driven this increase in overall productivity. The large oil price declines during the Great Recession and from 2014 to 2016 also played a role. However, further large increases in productivity are unlikely absent additional improvements in technology or a subsequent large downturn in oil prices.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 22, 2019 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Assessing the Risk of Extreme Unemployment Outcomes
Cook, Thomas R.; Doh, Taeyoung (2019-08-28)
Although the unemployment rate is at a historically low level, many policymakers are nevertheless watching projections for the future unemployment rate closely to evaluate the risk of extreme outcomes. We assess the probabilities of extreme outcomes in the near and medium term and find that the risk of unexpectedly high unemployment three years in the future has declined from its Great Recession peak and remained low over the past three years.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Aug 28, 2019 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Labor Market May Remain Tight until Labor Demand Cools Further
Tuzemen, Didem (2022-10-21)
U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 21, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Jacewitz, Stefan; Marsh, W. Blake; Sly, Nicholas (2023-02-22)
Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 22, 2023 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Immigration Shortfall May Be a Headwind for Labor Supply
Shampine, Samantha; Cohen, Elior (2022-05-11)
U.S. labor markets are currently experiencing unprecedented labor shortages. Reduced immigration flows in recent years have contributed to these labor supply shortages and tightened labor markets. Industries, occupations, and regions that rely more heavily on foreign workers have been particularly affected.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 11, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2020-07-15)
With the federal funds rate near zero, policymakers are evaluating options for providing additional monetary policy accommodation, including a tool known as yield curve control. We find that despite low nominal Treasury yields, some scope for additional accommodation remains should policymakers deem it appropriate. However, we argue that forward guidance about future interest rates could deliver much, though not all, of the accommodation of yield curve control.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Labor Constraints and Strong Demand Are Driving Robust Food Services Inflation
Scott, Francisco; Cowley, Cortney (2023-09-27)
Although headline inflation has slowed in recent months, inflation for core services has remained elevated since the first half of 2021. Inflation for food services in particular has been significantly higher than inflation for goods and other services. We argue that food services inflation has been elevated by the sector’s fast rebound in expenditures and its high dependency on labor amid labor shortages and elevated labor costs.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Rising Immigration Has Helped Cool an Overheated Labor Market
Cohen, Elior (2024-05-22)
The United States has experienced a substantial influx of immigrants over the past two years. In 2023, net international migration surpassed its pre-pandemic peak. This flow of immigrant workers has acted as a powerful catalyst in cooling overheated labor markets and tempering wage growth across industries and states.
Economic Bulletin

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