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Working Paper
A comparison of discount rate models using international stock market data
Kasa, Kenneth (1994)
This paper compares the ability of four discount rate models to explain the cross-sectional and time-series variation of stock returns in the U.S., Japan, England, Germany, and Canada. The data consist of quarterly returns (in dollars) on Morgan Stanley's Capital International indices for the period 1972 through 1991. The following four models are considered: (1) A consumption CAPM model, linking the discount rate to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution in consumption, (2) A production CAPM model, linking the discount rate to the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation in ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-15

Working Paper
Output dynamics in real business cycle models
Nason, James M.; Cogley, Timothy (1993)
The time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States. GNP growth is positively autocorrelated over short horizons and negatively autocorrelated over longer horizons, and GNP has an important trend reverting component which has a hump-shaped moving average representation. We consider whether various real business cycle (RBC) models are consistent with these stylized facts. ; We find that many RBC models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on exogenous factors to replicate both stylized facts. In particular, intertemporal ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 93-10

Working Paper
Deposit insurance, risk, and market power in banking
Keeley, Michael C. (1988)
A fixed-rate deposit insurance system provides a moral hazard for excessive risk taking and is not viable absent regulation. Although the deposit insurance system appears to have worked remarkably well over most of its 50-year history, major problems began to appear in the early 1980s. This paper addresses the puzzle of why major problems began to arise in the early 1980s and not sooner. ; The hypothesis is that increases in competition caused bank charter values to decline, which, in turn, caused banks to- increase default risk through increases. in asset risk and reductions in capital. This ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 88-07

Working Paper
Fiscal constraints and incentives with monetary coordination: implications for Europe 1992
Glick, Reuven; Hutchison, Michael M. (1990)
This paper analyzes how the feasible mix of government expenditure and financing arrangements may change in a monetary union such as that presently under discussion for the European Community. The effect of this institutional change on the incentives facing fiscal policymakers in their budgetary decisions also is investigated. The framework of analysis is a two-country, two-period intertemporal framework with maximizing private and public sector behavior. We find that the range of feasible divergence in the present discounted value of fiscal spending is reduced in a monetary union, although ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 90-04

Working Paper
Australian banking risk: evidence from share prices
Levonian, Mark E.; Gizycki, Marianne (1994)
We use share price data to calculate bank asset volatilities, market capital-asset ratios, and the public-sector depositor protection liability for Australia. The results show that the average capital ratio for the Australian banking sector has risen over the past decade, while the riskiness of bank assets has increased slightly. An examination of the relationship between asset volatility and bank capital implies that riskier banks have tended to maintain higher capital ratios, with a similar positive relationship between the two variables over time at individual banks. We find that the ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-03

Working Paper
Real exchange rate effects of monetary disturbances under different degrees of exchange rate flexibility: an empirical analysis
Wihlborg, Clas; Kretzmer, Peter; Glick, Reuven (1990)
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 90-03

Working Paper
\"Burden sharing\" in sovereign debt reduction
Spiegel, Mark M. (1994)
We examine a concerted debt reduction deal between a sovereign debtor, a private creditor, and an official creditor, who insures the deposits of the commercial bank. Our results show that a weakening of the financial position of the commercial bank reduces the contribution of the commercial bank and increases that of the official creditor, without affecting the net terms faced by the debtor. This result is robust to changes in seniority. Moreover, leaving both creditor values unchanged requires that commercial banks retire debt at "unfairly" high prices, while official creditors make a net ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-18

Working Paper
Does exchange rate appreciation 'deindustrialize' the open economy? a critique of U.S. evidence
Glick, Reuven; Hutchison, Michael M. (1988)
Since the fiscal expansion and real appreciation of the dollar in the early 1980s, widespread attention has focused on the so-called "deindustrialization" and "two-tiered" development of the U.S. economy. This view argues that exchange rate appreciation caused a major resource shift away from tradables production, such as manufactures, toward nontradables production in the economy. In this paper we take a critical look at this view. ; We argue that the association of a dollar appreciation with relative strength or weakness in the tradable goods sector depends on the particular shock ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 88-04

Working Paper
Signal extraction and the propagation of business cycles
Kasa, Kenneth (1995)
This paper studies a class of models developed by Townsend (1993) and Sargent (1991). These models feature dynamic signal extraction problems in which firms with heterogeneous information draw inferences from endogenously generated time series about the value of common persistent shock. Because the information firms receive is partially determined by the expectations of other firms, each firm must 'forecast the forecasts of others'. Moreover, since it is common knowledge that everyone is in the same situation, there occurs an infinite regress in expectations, in which each firm attempts to ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 95-14

Working Paper
Monetary \"targeting\" in Japan and the U.S.: which is more accurate?
Hutchison, Michael M.; Judd, John P. (1987)
This paper examines the issue of whether differences in money targeting or base-drift procedures between Japan and the U.S. are significant contributing factors to Japan's superior macroeconomic performance over the last decade, and concludes that these procedures probably are not important factors. ; We compare Bank of Japan (BoJ) money growth projections with Federal Reserve money targets. We show that BoJ projections are not comparable to annual money targets set by the Fed. We construct from past Records of Policy Actions of Federal Open Market Committee meetings a data set of Fed ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 87-10

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