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Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2016-12-23)
We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it takes time and expense for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1635

Working Paper
A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations
Koop, Gary; Chan, Joshua C. C.; Clark, Todd E. (2015-10-21)
A knowledge of the level of trend inflation is key to many current policy decisions, and several methods of estimating trend inflation exist. This paper adds to the growing literature which uses survey-based long-run forecasts of inflation to estimate trend inflation. We develop a bivariate model of inflation and long-run forecasts of inflation which allows for the estimation of the link between trend inflation and the long-run forecast. Thus, our model allows for the possibilities that long-run forecasts taken from surveys can be equated with trend inflation, that the two are completely ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1520

Working Paper
Banking relationships and sell-side research
Singh, Ajai K.; Madureira, Leonardo; Nayar, Nandkumar; Ergungor, O. Emre (2011)
This paper examines disclosures by sell-side analysts when their institution has a lending relationship with the firms being covered. Lending-affiliated analysts? earnings forecasts are found to be more accurate relative to forecasts by other analysts but this differential accuracy manifests itself only after the advent of the loan. Despite this increased earnings forecast accuracy, lending-affiliated analysts exhibit undue optimism in their brokerage recommendations and forecasts of long term growth. The optimism exists both before and after the lending commences. The evidence suggests that ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1114

Working Paper
Risk-based capital and deposit insurance reform
Berger, Allen N.; Avery, Robert B. (1990)
Risk-based capital (RBC) is an important component of deposit insurance reform. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the new 1992 RBC bank standards, applying them to data on virtually all U.S. banks from 1982 to 1989. The data reveal strong associations between several measures of future bank performance (including bankruptcy) and the RBC relative risk weights. These associations suggest that the weights constitute a significant improvement over the old capital standards, although there are several instances in which the weights for specific categories appear to be out of line with ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9101

Working Paper
Caught between Scylla and Charybdis? Regulating bank leverage when there is rent seeking and risk shifting
Mehran, Hamid; Acharya, Viral V.; Thakor, Anjan V. (2010)
Banks face two moral hazard problems: asset substitution by shareholders (e.g., making risky, negative net present value loans) and managerial rent seeking (e.g., investing in inefficient ?pet? projects or simply being lazy and uninnovative). The privately-optimal level of bank leverage is neither too low nor too high: It balances effi ciently the market discipline imposed by owners of risky debt on managerial rent-seeking against the asset-substitution induced at high levels of leverage. However, when correlated bank failures can impose significant social costs, regulators may bail out bank ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1024

Working Paper
On SBA-guaranteed lending and economic growth
Craig, Ben R.; Thomson, James B.; Jackson, William E. (2004)
Increasingly, policymakers are looking to the small business sector as a potential engine of economic growth. Policies to promote small businesses include tax relief, direct subsidies, and indirect subsidies through government lending programs. Encouraging lending to small business is the primary policy objective of the Small Business Administration (SBA) loan-guarantee program. Using a panel data set of SBA-guaranteed loans we assess whether SBA-guaranteed lending has an observable impact on local and regional economic performance.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0403

Working Paper
On the welfare gains of reducing the likelihood of economic crises
Corbae, Dean; Chatterjee, Satyajit (2000)
The authors seek to measure the potential benefit of reducing the likelihood of economic crises (defined as Depression-style collapses of economic activity). Based on the observed frequency of Depression-like events, they estimate this likelihood to be approximately one in every 83 years for the U.S. The welfare gain of reducing even this small probability of crisis to zero can range between 1.05 percent and 6.59 percent of annual consumption in perpetuity. These large gains occur because although the probability of entering a Depression-like state is small, once the state is entered it is ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0015

Working Paper
Voting on social security: evidence from OECD countries
Breyer, Friedrich; Craig, Ben R. (1995)
An examination of the subset of public choice models for Social Security that have empirical implications. The data, collected from OECD countries for the years 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990, show that higher median voter age, greater income heterogeneity, similarity in family size, and variables that make a public pension program profitable are all associated with a larger program.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9511

Working Paper
Determinants and consequences of mortgage default
Koijen, Ralph S. J.; Demyanyk, Yuliya; Hemert, Otto van (2010)
We study a unique data set of borrower-level credit information from TransUnion, one of the three major credit bureaus, which is linked to a database containing detailed information on the borrowers? mortgages. We find that the updated credit score is an important predictor of mortgage default in addition to the credit score at origination. However, the 6-month change in the credit score also predicts default: A positive change in the credit score significantly reduces the probability of delinquency or foreclosure. Next, we analyze the consequences of default on a borrower?s credit score. The ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1019

Working Paper
Optimal fiscal policy when public capital is productive: a business- cycle perspective
Lansing, Kevin J. (1994)
An examination of the business cycle implications of productive public capital in a two-sector, dynamic general-equilibrium model with optimal fiscal policy. In simulations, public investment and public consumption move procyclically, and the capital tax is more variable than the labor tax--features also observed in annual U.S. data.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9406

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