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Series:Working Papers  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

Working Paper
Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices

In this paper, we show that a substantial fraction of the volatility of real exchange rates between developed economies such as Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom against the US dollar can be accounted for by shocks that affect the prices of primary commodities such as oil, aluminum, maize, or copper. Our analysis implies that existing models used to analyze real exchange rates between large economies that mostly focus on trade between differentiated ?nal goods could benefit, in terms of matching the behavior of real exchange rates, by also considering trade in primary commodities.
Working Papers , Paper 743

Working Paper
Inflation and money growth under alternative monetary standards

Working Papers , Paper 528

Working Paper
Catch-up growth followed by stagnation: Mexico, 1950–2010

In 1950 Mexico entered an economic takeoff and grew rapidly for more than 30 years. Growth stopped during the crises of 1982?1995, despite major reforms, including liberalization of foreign trade and investment. Since then growth has been modest. We analyze the economic history of Mexico 1877? 2010. We conclude that the growth 1950?1981 was driven by urbanization, industrialization, and education and that Mexico would have grown even more rapidly if trade and investment had been liberalized sooner. If Mexico is to resume rapid growth ? so that it can approach U.S. levels of income ? it needs ...
Working Papers , Paper 693

Working Paper
Putty-clay capital and energy

We evaluate the ability of models with putty-clay capital and stochastic energy prices to account for the dynamics of energy use and output. Economists have noted a close relationship between changes in the price of energy and changes in output. Moreover, they have documents that this relationship is asymmetric: energy price increases are associated with large output charges while energy prices decreases are associated with small output changes. Finally, following energy price changes, energy use adjusts slowly over time. Standard models with putty-putty capital fail to reproduce the features ...
Working Papers , Paper 548

Working Paper
The Illusion of School Choice: Empirical Evidence from Barcelona

School choice aims to improve (1) the matching between children and schools and (2) students? educa-tional outcomes. Yet, the concern is that disadvantaged families are less able to exercise choice, which raises (3) equity concerns. The Boston mechanism (BM) is a procedure that is widely used around the world to resolve overdemands for particular schools by defining a set of priority points based on neigh-borhood and socioeconomic characteristics. The mechanism design literature has shown that under the BM, parents may not have incentives to provide their true preferences, thereby ...
Working Papers , Paper 712

Working Paper
Suspension and the financing of the Civil War: a critique of Newcomb and Mitchell

Working Papers , Paper 265

Working Paper
Consumer search and firm growth

This paper presents a simple model of search and matching between consumers and firms. The firm size distribution has a Pareto-like right tail if the population of consumers grows at a positive rate and the mean rate at which incumbent firms gain customers is also positive. This happens in equilibrium when entry is sufficiently costly. As entry costs grow without bound, the size distribution approaches Zipf's law. The slow rate at which the right tail of the size distribution decays and the 10% annual gross entry rate of new firms observed in the data suggest that more than a third of all ...
Working Papers , Paper 645

Working Paper
Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics

In this paper, we ask how bankruptcy law affects the financial decisions of corporations and its implications for firm dynamics. According to current U.S. law, firms have two bankruptcy options: Chapter 7 liquidation and Chapter 11 reorganization. Using Compustat data, we first document capital structure and investment decisions of non-bankrupt, Chapter 11, and Chapter 7 firms. Using those data moments, we then estimate parameters of a general equilibrium firm dynamics model with endogenous entry and exit to include both bankruptcy options. Finally, we evaluate a bankruptcy policy change ...
Working Papers , Paper 769

Working Paper
Openness, technology capital, and development

A framework is developed with what we call technology capital. A country is a measure of locations. Absent policy constraints, a firm owning a unit of technology capital can produce the composite output good using the unit of technology capital at as many locations as it chooses. But it can operate only one operation at a given location, so the number of locations is what constrains the number of units it operates using this unit of technology capital. If it has two units of technology capital, it can operate twice as many operations at every location. In this paper, aggregation is carried ...
Working Papers , Paper 651

Working Paper
Patterns of exchange, fiat money, and the welfare costs of inflation

We seem to observe different patterns of exchange at different times and in different places. The first goal of this paper is to develop a model of money as a medium of exchange which allows multiple transaction patterns. A dynamic version of Shubik?s trading post economy is used, and it is shown that this economy allows a role for fiat money, and that fiat money can coexist with barter in exchange. There are multiple decentralized equilibria, and one of these resembles the equilibrium of a cash-in-advance economy?indeed, the model can be viewed as a generalization of the cash-in-advance ...
Working Papers , Paper 510

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