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Working Paper
A Robust Test for Weak Instruments with Multiple Endogenous Regressors
Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel
(2022-06-22)
We extend the popular bias-based test of Stock and Yogo (2005) for instrument strength in linear instrumental variables regressions with multiple endogenous regressors to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Equivalently, we extend the robust test of Montiel Olea and Pflueger (2013) for one endogenous regressor to the general case with multiple endogenous regressors. We describe a simple procedure for applied researchers to conduct our generalized first-stage test of instrument strength and provide efficient and easy-to-use Matlab code for its implementation. We demonstrate ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2208
Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel
(2023-12-21)
Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, we find that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and higher business-sector productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV methodology of Lewis and Mertens (2023) and obtain implied returns of 150 to 300 percent over the postwar period. The estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for one ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2305
Working Paper
The Death of the Phillips Curve?
Murphy, Anthony
(2018-01-01)
Are inflation dynamics well captured by Phillips Curve models, or has this framework become less relevant over time? The evidence for the U.S. suggests that the slopes of the price and wage Phillips Curves? the short-run inflation-unemployment trade-offs ? are low and have got a little flatter. For example, the recursive estimate of the unemployment coefficient in the core PCE Phillips Curve has fallen a little from -0.09 to -0.07 since the Great Recession. However, the decline is not statistically significant. Dynamic forecasts from the wage and price Phillips Curves estimated using data ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1801
Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel
(2023-05-18)
We estimate the causal impact of government-funded R&D on business-sector productivity growth. Identification is based on a novel narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in appropriations for R&D funded by five major federal agencies. Using long-horizon local projections and the narrative measures, we find that an increase in appropriations for nondefense R&D leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity, and higher productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2305
Working Paper
The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions
Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz
(2020-12-03)
Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically imposed in estimating sign-identified VAR models may be unintentionally informative about the implied prior for the structural impulse responses. This question is indeed important, but we show that the tools that have been used in the literature to illustrate this potential problem are invalid. Specifically, we show that it does not make sense from a Bayesian point of view to characterize the impulse response prior based on the distribution of the impulse responses conditional on the maximum likelihood estimator of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2030
Working Paper
Who Signs up for E-Verify? Insights from DHS Enrollment Records
Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline; Greer, Sarah
(2020-01-15)
E-Verify is a federal electronic verification system that allows employers to check whether their newly hired workers are authorized to work in the United States. To use E-Verify, firms first must enroll with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Participation is voluntary for most private-sector employers in the United States, but eight states currently require all or most employers to use E-Verify. This article uses confidential data from DHS to examine patterns of employer enrollment in E-Verify. The results indicate that employers are much more likely to sign up in mandatory E-Verify ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2002
Working Paper
Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment
Zhou, Xiaoqing
(2021-03-24)
This paper studies the transmission of the major shocks in the U.S. housing market in the 2000s to consumption and residential investment. Using geographically disaggregated data, I show that residential investment is more responsive to these shocks than consumption, as measured by elasticities and the implied contributions to GDP growth. I develop a structural life-cycle model featuring multiple types of housing investment to understand the large responses of residential investment. Consistent with the microdata, the model generates lumpy debt accumulation, lumpy housing investment and a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2103
Working Paper
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
(2019-11-27)
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as well as low U.S. real interest rates, along with a surge in global real economic activity. Quantifying these effects one at a time is difficult not only because of the close relationship between the interest rate and the exchange rate, but also because demand and supply shocks in the oil market in turn ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1914
Working Paper
The Geography of Jobs and the Gender Wage Gap
Su, Yichen; Liu, Sitian
(2020-10-02)
Prior studies have shown that women are more willing to trade off wages for short commutes than men. Given the gender difference in commuting preferences, we show that the wage return to commuting (i.e., the wage penalty for reducing commute time) that stems from the spatial distribution of jobs contributes to the gender wage gap. We propose a simple job choice model, which predicts that differential commuting preferences would lead to a larger gender wage gap for workers who face greater wage returns to commuting based on their locations of residence and occupations. We then show empirical ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2028
Working Paper
Banking reform
Dwyer, Gerald P.
(1990)
Working Papers
, Paper 9004
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Energy consumption 1 items
Enterprise zones 1 items
Epstein-Zin Preferences 1 items
Epstein-Zin Utility 1 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 1 items
Equity Premium Puzzle 1 items
Estimation 1 items
European Central Bank 1 items
European Union 1 items
Exchange rate 1 items
Experimental Economics 1 items
Exposure at Default 1 items
FAVAR 1 items
Factor stochastic volatility model 1 items
False Discovery Exceedance Control 1 items
Federal Open Market Committee 1 items
Federal Reserve 1 items
Federal funds rate 1 items
Female labor supply 1 items
Finance 1 items
Financial innovation 1 items
Finding Rate 1 items
Finite Jumps 1 items
Fiscal 1 items
Fiscal Multiplier 1 items
Fiscal Stimulus 1 items
Forward guidance 1 items
Gender wage gap 1 items
General Motors Corporation 1 items
Gentrification 1 items
Globalization 1 items
Google search activity 1 items
Great Moderation 1 items
Group of Seven countries 1 items
Heterogeneity 1 items
Hispanic Americans 1 items
Home ownership 1 items
Homeownership 1 items
House prices 1 items
Households - Economic aspects 1 items
Households - Finance 1 items
Housing Provident Fund 1 items
Hybrid Time Series 1 items
IPCA 1 items
Identification cards - Forgeries 1 items
Illegal immigrants 1 items
Illegal immigration 1 items
Impulse response 1 items
Income inequality 1 items
Income tax 1 items
Index 1 items
Industrial capacity 1 items
Industrial organization (Economic theory) 1 items
Industries 1 items
Infinite Jumps 1 items
Inflation expectations 1 items
Inflation risk 1 items
Inflation stabilization 1 items
Information technology 1 items
Input-output analysis 1 items
Institutional investors 1 items
Intellectual property 1 items
Interbank market 1 items
Interest 1 items
Interest Rate Parity 1 items
International economic relations 1 items
International finance 1 items
Inventories 1 items
Inversion Filter 1 items
Investments 1 items
Investments, Foreign - United States 1 items
Irregular migration 1 items
Job creation 1 items
Labor Search 1 items
Labor economics 1 items
Labor turnover 1 items
Labor unions 1 items
Latinos 1 items
Limited enforcement 1 items
Liquidity (Economics) 1 items
Local False Discovery Rates 1 items
Local currency 1 items
Local government 1 items
Location Data 1 items
Loss function 1 items
Loss recoveries 1 items
Macro-sensitivity 1 items
Macroeconomic environment 1 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 1 items
Manufactures 1 items
Maquiladora 1 items
Mathematical models 1 items
Medicaid 1 items
Medicaid Matching Grants 1 items
Merchandise trade 1 items
Mergers & acquisitions 1 items
Mexican migration 1 items
Mineral commodity markets 1 items
Monetary Economics 1 items
Monetary Policy Identification 1 items
Monetary policy - Switzerland 1 items
Money demand 1 items
Money market 1 items
Monte Carlo integration 1 items
Mortgage borrowing 1 items
Mortgage loans 1 items
Multiple Hypotheses Testing 1 items
Multiple Indicators-Multiple Causes (MIMIC) 1 items
National security 1 items
Natural gas 1 items
Natural resources 1 items
Noise-Robust Volatility 1 items
Non-Prime 1 items
Nonbank financial institutions 1 items
Nonlinear Estimation 1 items
Nonlinear Solution 1 items
OccBin 1 items
Oil market 1 items
Oil price volatility 1 items
Open market operations 1 items
Operational losses 1 items
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 1 items
P-star 1 items
PCAOB 1 items
Pass-through 1 items
Paycheck Protection Program 1 items
Pensions 1 items
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 1 items
Point Forecasts 1 items
Poisson Binomial Distribution 1 items
Policy Effects 1 items
Policy evaluation 1 items
Policy uncertainty 1 items
Political science 1 items
Population 1 items
Price 1 items
Pricing 1 items
Prior 1 items
Projection Methods 1 items
Proxy VAR 1 items
Public policy 1 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 1 items
Real Business Cycles 1 items
Regional 1 items
Regulation Q 1 items
Rent 1 items
Residential investment 1 items
Revenue 1 items
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