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Working Paper
Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. (2005)
In the now conventional view of the inflation process, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) captures most of the persistence in inflation. The sources of persistence are twofold. First, the ?driving process? for inflation?the output gap or, more commonly, real marginal cost?is itself quite persistent, and a casual inspection of the NKPC reveals that inflation must ?inherit? this persistence. Second, a modest amount of backward-looking or indexing behavior imparts some ?intrinsic? persistence to inflation. This latter source is generally thought to be of less importance than the former, as ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-8

Working Paper
Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence
Janson, Wesley; Verbrugge, Randal J. (2023-11-06)
Accurate rent measurement is essential for constructing a consumer price index (CPI) and for measuring household welfare. Late payment fees and nonpayment of rent are common components of rental expenditures and thus belong in CPIs. Late payment fees are often excluded; we offer a novel critique. In the US CPI, nonpayment is ostensibly included, but, we show, severely undermeasured. Moreover, the manner of its inclusion renders the CPI extremely sensitive to nonpayment variations; we show how to fix this. Nonpayment undermeasurement suggests at least a +1 ppt overestimate in 2020 CPI shelter ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-22R2

Working Paper
How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules
Martin, Fernando M. (2023-08-08)
Countries have widely imposed fiscal rules designed to constrain government spending and ensure fiscal responsibility. This paper studies the effectiveness and welfare implications of expenditure, revenue, budget balance and debt rules when governments are discretionary and prone to overspending. The optimal prescription is either an expenditure ceiling or a combination of revenue and primary deficit ceilings. Most of the benefits can still be reaped with constraints looser than optimal or escape clauses during adverse times. When imposed on their own, revenue ceilings are only mildly ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-026

Working Paper
Inequality in the Welfare Costs of Disinflation
Rubinton, Hannah; Pugsley, Benjamin (2021-09-23)
We use an incomplete markets economy to quantify the distribution of welfare gains and losses of the US “Volcker” disinflation. In the long run households prefer low inflation, but disinflation requires a transition period and a redistribution from net nominal borrowers to net nominal savers. Welfare costs may be significant for households with nominal liabilities. When calibrated to match the micro and macro moments of the early 1980s high-inflation environment and the actual changes in the nominal interest rate and inflation during the Volcker disinflation, nearly 60 percent of all ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-021

Working Paper
An empirical investigation of money demand in the cash-in-advance model framework
Sill, Keith (1992)
Working Papers , Paper 92-16

Working Paper
Durable financial regulation: monitoring financial instruments as a counterpart to regulating financial institutions
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2010)
Superseded by Working Paper 13-2 ; This paper sets forth a discussion framework for the information requirements of systemic financial regulation. It specifically proposes a large macro-micro database for the U.S. based on an extended version of the Flow of Funds. The author argues that such a database would have been of material value to U.S. regulators in ameliorating the recent financial crisis and will be of aid in understanding the potential vulnerabilities of an innovative financial system in the future. The author also argues that the data should -- under strict confidentiality ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-22

Working Paper
Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble
Brueckner, Jan K.; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Calem, Paul S. (2011)
This paper explores the link between the house-price expectations of mortgage lenders and the extent of subprime lending. It argues that bubble conditions in the housing market are likely to spur subprime lending, with favorable price expectations easing the default concerns of lenders and thus increasing their willingness to extend loans to risky borrowers. Since the demand created by subprime lending feeds back onto house prices, such lending also helps to fuel an emerging housing bubble. The paper, however, focuses on the reverse causal linkage, where subprime lending is a consequence ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-12

Working Paper
Regional resilience
Lin, Jeffrey (2012)
In this paper, I study long-run population changes across U.S. metropolitan areas. First, I argue that changes over a long period of time in the geographic distribution of population can be informative about the so-called resilience" of regions. Using the censuses of population from1790 to 2010, I find that persistent declines, lasting two decades or more, are somewhat rare among metropolitan areas in U.S. history, though more common recently. Incorporating data on historical factors, I find that metropolitan areas that have experienced extended periods of weak population growth tend to be ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-01

Working Paper
The role of economic, fiscal, and financial shocks in the evolution of public sector pension funding
Zhao, Bo; Triest, Robert K. (2013-12-27)
Many studies have documented the pervasive underfunding of public sector pension plans in the United States in recent years. The deterioration of the funded status of public pension plans coincided with severe fiscal crises that state and local governments experienced in the 2000s. This development has led to a suspicion that state and local governments have decreased employer pension contributions as a backdoor means of running fiscal deficits. In this paper, the authors investigate the extent to which this phenomenon has occurred. They estimate panel data regressions using the Boston ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-26

Working Paper
House price growth when kids are teenagers: a path to higher intergenerational achievement?
Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose (2011)
This paper examines whether rising house prices immediately prior to children entering their college years impacts their intergenerational earnings mobility and/or educational outcomes. Higher house prices provide homeowners, especially liquidity constrained ones, with additional funding to invest in their children's human capital. The results show that a 1 percentage point increase in house prices, when children are 17-years-old, results in roughly 0.8 percent higher annual income for the children of homeowners, and 1.2 percent lower annual income for the children of renters. Additional ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-6

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