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Working Paper
Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis
Gourio, François; Messer, Todd; Siemer, Michael (2016-01-31)
Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-1

Working Paper
Shocks and Adjustments
Nechio, Fernanda; Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Jordà, Òscar (2013)
We develop a multisector model in which capital and labor are free to move across firms within each sector, but cannot move across sectors. To isolate the role of sectoral specificity, we compare our model with otherwise identical multisector economies with either economy-wide factor markets (as in Chari et al. 2000) or firm-specific factor markets (as in Woodford 2005). Sectoral specificity induces within-sector strategic substitutability and across-sector strategic complementarity in price setting. Our model can produce either more or less monetary non-neutrality than those other two ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-32

Working Paper
Human capital and technology diffusion
Spiegel, Mark M.; Benhabib, Jess (2002)
This paper generalizes the Nelson-Phelps catch-up model of technology diffusion. We allow for the possibility that the pattern of technology diffusion can be exponential, which would predict that nations would exhibit positive catch-up with the leader nation, or logistic, in which a country with a sufficiently small capital stock may exhibit slower total factor productivity growth than the leader nation. ; We derive a nonlinear specification for total factor productivity growth that nests these two specifications. We estimate this specification for across-section of nations from 1960 through ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2003-02

Working Paper
Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance
Li, Huiyu; Boppart, Timo (2021-08-22)
Growth accounting suggests that the bulk of the post-2004 slowdown in output growth in the U.S. is attributed to a residual called TFP. In this paper we provide a tractable accounting framework with firm heterogeneity to link this residual to innovations, markup dispersion, and potential measurement errors. Theories of creative destruction offer rich testable predictions of how the quality upgrading of products, the process efficiency of different firms, and markup dispersion in the market interact and therefore constitute a key approach to shed light on the slowdown in TFP growth. Surveying ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-21

Working Paper
Measuring productivity growth in Asia: do market imperfections matter?
Neiman, Brent; Fernald, John G. (2003)
Recent research reports contradictory estimates of productivity growth for the newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia. In particular, estimates using real factor prices find relatively rapid TFP growth; estimates using quantities of inputs and output find relatively low TFP growth. The difference is particularly notable for Singapore, where the difference is about 2-1/4 percentage-points per year. We show that about 2/3 of that difference reflects differences in estimated capital payments. We argue that these differences reflect economically interesting imperfections in output and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-15

Working Paper
Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
Williams, John C.; Orphanides, Athanasios (2008)
This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty about the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We assume that agents have imperfect knowledge about the precise structure of the economy and form expectations using a forecasting model that they continuously update based on incoming data. We also allow for central bank uncertainty regarding the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We find that the optimal control policy derived under ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-09

Working Paper
Easy Bootstrap-Like Estimation of Asymptotic Variances
Hu, Luojia; Honore, Bo E. (2018-06-29)
The bootstrap is a convenient tool for calculating standard errors of the parameter estimates of complicated econometric models. Unfortunately, the bootstrap can be very time-consuming. In a recent paper, Honor and Hu (2017), we propose a ?Poor (Wo)man's Bootstrap? based on one-dimensional estimators. In this paper, we propose a modified, simpler method and illustrate its potential for estimating asymptotic variances.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-11

Working Paper
The Federal Reserve’s Evolving Monetary Policy Implementation Framework: 1914-1923
Chabot, Benjamin (2017-01-18)
The Federal Reserve has relied upon a number of different monetary policy implementation frameworks throughout its history. This paper describes the original implementation framework that evolved between 1914 and 1923 in response to new policy objectives and changing market conditions.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-1

Working Paper
The Labor Market Impact of Covid-19 on Asian Americans
Zhang, Jing; de Mena, Chris; Qin, Suvy (2023-03-08)
Asian Americans faced a disproportionately larger surge in unemployment rates than other racial and ethnic groups during the Covid-19 pandemic. While existing literature typically examines labor demand channels to explain this, we instead explore a labor supply channel. Our hypothesis is that Asian Americans are more cautious about Covid-19 infections and thus more selective about job opportunities, contributing to their higher unemployment rate than other groups. Analysis of cellphone data during the pandemic indicates that non-work mobility significantly decreased in areas with larger Asian ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-10

Working Paper
Monetary policy shocks, inventory dynamics, and price-setting behavior
Yun, Tack; Jung, Yongseung (2005)
In this paper, we estimate a VAR model to present an empirical finding that an unexpected rise in the federal funds rate decreases the ratio of sales to stocks available for sales, while it increases finished goods inventories. In addition, dynamic responses of these variables reach their peaks several quarters after a monetary shock. In order to understand the observed relationship between monetary policy and finished goods inventories, we allow for the accumulation of finished goods inventories in an optimizing sticky price model, where prices are set in a staggered fashion. In our model, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-02

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