Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment
Wang, Ping; Wong, Russell (2026-02-23)
How large are the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment? We develop a labor-search model of technological unemployment where AI learns from workers, raises productivity, and displaces them if renegotiation fails. The model admits three steady states: no AI; some AI with limited capability, more job creation but higher unemployment; unbounded AI with endogenous growth and employment gains. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model implies a threefold productivity gain but a 23% employment loss, half within five years. Plausible parameters give rise to global ...
Working Paper , Paper 26-01

Working Paper
Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent
Ho, Paul (2021-06-16)
We survey approaches to macroeconomic forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the unprecedented nature of the episode, there was greater dependence on information outside the econometric model, captured through either adjustments to the model or additional data. The transparency and flexibility of assumptions were especially important for interpreting real-time forecasts and updating forecasts as new data were observed. With data available at the time of writing, we show how various assumptions were violated and how these systematically biased forecasts.
Working Paper , Paper 21-10

Working Paper
Endogenous financial innovation and the demand for money
Ireland, Peter N. (1992)
This paper embeds two key ideas about the nature of financial innovation taken from the empirical literature into a familiar equilibrium monetary model. It provides formal support for several alternative econometric specifications for money demand that attempt to capture the effects of financial innovation and demonstrates that a popular theoretical model of money demand, when suitably modified, can account for some unusual monetary dynamics found in the data. Thus, it helps to establish both the theoretical relevance of recent empirical work and the empirical relevance of recent theoretical ...
Working Paper , Paper 92-03

Working Paper
Informational implications of interest rate rules
Dotsey, Michael; King, Robert G. (1984)
Returning to a topic first systematically treated by Poole (1970) in a textbook Keynesian model, this paper compares interest rate and money supply rules. Our analysis, by contrast, is conducted within a rational expectations macro model that incorporates flexible prices and informational frictions. With differential information, interest rate targets can affect the information content of market prices and real activity, but these real consequences can always be replicated by an appropriately chosen money stock rule with feedback to economic activity. However, when the policy authority has ...
Working Paper , Paper 84-08

Working Paper
Interest rate expectations and the demand for short-term business credit
Summers, Bruce J. (1977)
Short-term credit plays an essential part in the business financing process. In view of its importance in the nation's credit structure, the market for short-term business credit receives a great deal of attention from financial analysts.
Working Paper , Paper 77-02

Working Paper
Shortages of small change in early Argentina
Ennis, Huberto M. (2003)
In this note I review evidence suggesting that shortages of small change occurred in the territory of Argentina during the end of the eighteenth and the beginning of the nineteenth centuries. For the colonial period (until 1810) the main pieces of evidence are: (i) the widespread use of informal means of payment, (ii) the difficulties faced in retiring from circulation low quality subsidiary coins, and (iii) the numerous official resolutions banning the exporting of fractional money from the colonies. For the period from 1810 to 1825, the episodes surrounding the introduction of copper coins ...
Working Paper , Paper 03-12

Working Paper
Staggered prices and inventories: production smoothing reconsidered
Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Hornstein, Andreas (1998)
Working Paper , Paper 98-08

Working Paper
Interest rate rules and nominal determinacy
Boyd, John H.; Dotsey, Michael (1990)
Monetary economists have recently begun a serious study of money supply rules that allow the Fed to adjustably peg the nominal interest rate under rational expectations. These rules vary from procedures that produce stationary nominal magnitudes to those that generate nonstationarities in nominal variables. Our paper investigates the determinacy properties of three representative interest rate rules. ; We use Blanchard and Kahn's solution technique as a starting point. It doesn't directly apply, so we first modify their procedure. We then narrow the range of solutions by considering the ARMA ...
Working Paper , Paper 90-01

Working Paper
Determinants of long-term bond risk premiums
Jackson, William D. (1976)
Investor risk aversion in the long-term bond markets strongly influences the ability of many businesses to finance capital expenditures.
Working Paper , Paper 76-03

Working Paper
The Effects of Collecting Income Taxes on Social Security Benefits
Jones, John Bailey; Li, Yue (2017-01-12)
Since 1983, Social Security benefits have been subject to income taxation, a provision that can significantly increase the marginal income tax rate for older individuals. To assess the impact of this tax, we construct and calibrate a detailed life-cycle model of labor supply, saving, and Social Security claiming. We find that in a long-run stationary environment, replacing the taxation of Social Security benefits with a revenue-equivalent increase in the payroll tax would significantly increase labor supply, consumption and welfare. From an ex-ante perspective an even more desirable reform ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-2

show more (183)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords