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Marital risk and capital accumulation
Cubeddu, Luis; Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor (1997)
Between the sixties and the late eighties the percentages of low-saving single-parent households and people living alone have grown dramatically at the expense of high-saving married households, while the household saving rate has declined equally dramatically. A preliminary analysis of population composition and savings by household type seems to indicate that about half of the decline in savings is due to demographic change. We construct a model with agents changing marital status, but where the saving behavior of the households can adjust to the properties of the demographic process. We ...
Staff Report , Paper 235

Report
Sovereign risk and firm heterogeneity
Bai, Yan; Arellano, Cristina; Bocola, Luigi (2017-03-22)
This paper studies the recessionary effects of sovereign default risk using firm-level data and a model of sovereign debt with firm heterogeneity. Our environment features a two-way feedback loop. Low output decreases the tax revenues of the government and raises the risk that it will default on its debt. The associated increase in sovereign interest rate spreads, in turn, raises the interest rates paid by firms, which further depresses their production. Importantly, these effects are not homogeneous across firms, as interest rate hikes have more severe consequences for firms that are in need ...
Staff Report , Paper 547

Report
A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing
Yogo, Motohiro; Koijen, Ralph S. J. (2015-04-17)
This Staff Report was previously titled "An Equilibrium Model of Institutional Demand and Asset Prices." {{p}} We develop an asset pricing model with rich heterogeneity in asset demand across investors, designed to match institutional holdings data. The equilibrium price vector is uniquely determined by market clearing, which equates the supply of each asset to aggregate demand. We estimate the model on U.S. stock market data by instrumental variables, under an identifying assumption that allows for price impact. The model sheds light on the role of institutions in stock market ...
Staff Report , Paper 510

Report
Comments on price indexes and inflation
Supel, Thomas M. (1971)
Staff Report , Paper 6

Report
\\"Tobin's Q\\" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium
Sargent, Thomas J. (1979)
Staff Report , Paper 40

Report
On the Nature of Entrepreneurship
Bhandari, Anmol; Kass, Tobey; May, Thomas J.; McGrattan, Ellen R.; Schulz, Evan (2025-07-08)
This paper provides insights into the nature of entrepreneurship using a novel panel dataset based on U.S. administrative data from the Internal Revenue Service and the Social Security Administration. These data are used to analyze patterns of income growth and determinants of entrepreneurial choice for a large population of business owners. Earlier studies relying on household survey data have been limited by small samples, short panels, and income top-coding and, as a result, have focused on the typical self-employed individual rather than the typical dollar earned in self-employment. ...
Staff Report , Paper 670

Report
Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises
Conesa, Juan Carlos; Kehoe, Timothy J. (2012)
We develop a model for analyzing the sovereign debt crises of 2010?2012 in the Eurozone. The government sets its expenditure-debt policy optimally. The need to sell large quantities of bonds every period leaves the government vulnerable to self-fulfilling crises in which investors, anticipating a crisis, are unwilling to buy the bonds, thereby provoking the crisis. In this situation, the optimal policy of the government is to reduce its debt to a level where crises are not possible. If, however, the economy is in a recession where there is a positive probability of recovery in fiscal ...
Staff Report , Paper 465

Report
A Framework for Studying the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Sargent, Thomas J.; Nicolini, Juan Pablo (2020-07-21)
We develop a conceptual framework for analyzing the interactions between aggregate fiscal policy and monetary policy. The framework draws on existing models that analyze sovereign debt crises and balance-of-payments crises. We intend this framework as a guide for analyzing the monetary and fiscal history of a set of eleven major Latin American countries—Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela—from the 1960s until now.
Staff Report , Paper 607

Report
Solving the stochastic growth model with a finite element method
McGrattan, Ellen R. (1993)
Since it is the dominant paradigm of the business cycle and growth literatures, the stochastic growth model has been used to test the performance of alternative numerical methods. In this paper I apply the finite element method to this model. I show that the method is easy to apply and that, for examples such as the stochastic growth method, it gives accurate solutions within a second or two on a desktop computer. I also show how inequality constraints can be handled by redefining the optimization problem with penalty functions.
Staff Report , Paper 164

Report
Formulating and estimating continuous time rational expectations models
Sargent, Thomas J.; Hansen, Lars Peter (1982)
This paper proposes a method for estimating the parameters of continuous time, stochastic rational expectations models from discrete time observations. The method is important since various heuristic procedures for deducing the implications for discrete time data of continuous time models, such as replacing derivatives with first differences, can sometimes give rise to very misleading conclusions about parameters. Our proposal is to express the restrictions imposed by the rational expectations model on the continuous time process generating the observable variables. Then the likelihood ...
Staff Report , Paper 75

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