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Journal Article
Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach
Svensson, Lars E. O.; Williams, Noah (2008-07)
This paper studies the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty using a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach. To approximate the uncertainty that policymakers face, the authors use different discrete modes in a Markov chain and take mode-dependent linear-quadratic approximations of the underlying model. This allows the authors to apply a powerful methodology with convenient solution algorithms that they have developed. They apply their methods to analyze the effects of uncertainty and potential gains from experimentation for two sources of uncertainty in the New Keynesian ...
Review , Volume 90 , Issue Jul , Pages 275-294

Journal Article
The geography, economics, and politics of lottery adoption
Garrett, Thomas A.; Coughlin, Cletus C.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2006-05)
Since New Hampshire introduced the first modern state-sponsored lottery in 1964, 41 other states plus the District of Columbia have adopted lotteries. Lottery ticket sales in the United States topped $48 billion in 2004, with state governments reaping nearly $14 billion in net lottery revenue. In this paper the authors attempt to answer the question of why some states have adopted lotteries and others have not. First, they establish a framework for analyzing the determination of public policies that highlights the roles of individual voters, interest groups, and politicians within a state as ...
Review , Volume 88 , Issue May , Pages 165-180

Journal Article
What Determines Debt Maturity?
Manuelli, Rodolfo E. (2019)
What determines the maturity structure of debt? In this article, I develop a simple model to explore how the optimal maturity of debt issued by a firm (or a country) depends both on the firm?s cyclical state and other features of the economic environment in which it operates. I find that firms with better current earnings and better growth prospects issue debt with longer maturity, while firms operating in more-volatile environments issue debt with shorter maturity. Yield to maturity is a poor indicator of the risk of debt issued by a firm. The reason is simple: Yield to maturity captures ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 3 , Pages 155-176

Journal Article
The farm credit crisis: will it hurt the whole economy?
Belongia, Michael T.; Gilbert, R. Alton (1985-12)
Review , Volume 67 , Issue Dec , Pages 5-15

Journal Article
Institutions and government growth: a comparison of the 1890s and the 1930s
Garrett, Thomas A.; Rhine, Russell M.; Kozak, Andrew F. (2010-03)
Statistics on the size and growth of the U.S. federal government, in addition to public statements by President Franklin Roosevelt, seem to indicate that the Great Depression was the primary event that caused the dramatic growth in government spending and intervention in the private sector that continues to the present day. Through a comparison of the economic conditions of the 1890s and the 1930s, the authors argue that post-1930 government growth in the United States is not the direct result of the Great Depression, but rather is a result of institutional, legal, and societal changes that ...
Review , Volume 92 , Issue Mar , Pages 109-120

Journal Article
Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective
Wen, Yi; Wu, Huabin (2011-05)
First-order approximation methods are a standard technique for analyzing the local dynamics of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Although linear methods yield quite accurate solutions for a broad class of DSGE models, some important economic issues (e.g., portfolio choice and welfare) cannot be adequately addressed by first-order methods. This paper provides yet another case when first-order methods may be inadequate for capturing the business cycle properties of a DSGE model. In particular, the authors show that increasing returns to scale (due to production ...
Review , Volume 93 , Issue May , Pages 187-206

Journal Article
Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
Dueker, Michael J.; Belaygorod, Anatoliy (2005-11)
Many estimated macroeconomic models assume interest rate smoothing in the monetary policy equation. In practice, monetary policymakers adjust a target level for the federal funds rate by discrete increments. One often-neglected consequence of using a quarterly average of the daily federal funds rate in empirical work is that any change in the target federal funds rate will affect the quarterly average in the current quarter and the subsequent quarter. Despite this clear source of predictable change in the quarterly average of the federal funds rate, the vast bulk of the literature that ...
Review , Volume 87 , Issue Nov , Pages 719-34

Journal Article
Cash flow or present value: what's lurking behind that hedge?
Santoni, G. J.; Belongia, Michael T. (1985-01)
Review , Volume 67 , Issue Jan , Pages 5-13

Journal Article
Treasury Debt and Inflation Tax
Chiang, Yu-Ting; Karger, Ezra; LaBelle, Jesse (2024-10-08)
We calculate the implicit inflation tax borne by households due to their holdings of U.S. Treasury debt. Nominal assets lose value due to unexpected inflation. We calculate unexpected changes in current and future inflation and document households’ holdings of Treasury debt across the wealth distribution, accounting for direct and indirect holdings through financial intermediaries. Combining these two pieces of information, we calculate the implied inflation tax across household wealth groups over the past four decades.
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 9 , Pages 1-11

Journal Article
The shift in money demand: what really happened?
Hein, Scott E.; Hafer, Rik (1982-02)
Review , Volume 64 , Issue Feb

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