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Briefing
Battle of the Forecasts: Mean vs. Median as the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ Consensus
In this Research Brief, we study whether the accuracy of the median forecast in fact exceeds that of the mean forecast. Because we want the results of our study to be as robust as possible, we examine the forecasts for six important survey variables over five forecast horizons, using four alternative measures of the realizations from which we compute the forecast errors, and four alternative sample periods. We apply the well-known Diebol?Mariano (1995) statistical test for relative forecast accuracy between the mean and median consensus projections.
Briefing
Reopening the Economy: What Are the Risks, and What Have States Done?
The process of reopening economies battered by the COVID-19 pandemic has been the subject of considerable deliberation in recent months. It is generally agreed that accurate and timely monitoring of the pace of coronavirus spread is of the utmost importance in managing reopening. In addition, the discussion of reopening has often been framed by an assess-ment of the health risks posed by each economic sector. Some sectors, for example, involve especially close and protracted interaction among customers and employees, which can facilitate COVID-19 transmission. Accordingly, the sequence ...
Briefing
Why Were Pennsylvania’s Initial UI Claims so High?
As initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims exploded across the country early in the COVID-19 crisis, one fact stood out: Pennsylvania’s initial UI claims were exceptionally high. For the week ending March 21, Pennsylvania led all states with 378,908 initial UI claims.
Briefing
Can More Regular Reassessment Help Improve Property Tax Equity in Philadelphia?
A new brief summarizes recent research that looked into whether more regular assessment of property values can improve the equity of property taxes and how that would affect property owners in lower-income and minority neighborhoods. The research evaluated the impact of two reassessments after Philadelphia adopted the Actual Value Initiative (AVI). Adopted in 2013, the AVI requires the city to conduct more regular revaluations of properties.
Briefing
Is Urban Cool Cooling New Jersey’s Job Market?
Since 2000, employment in New Jersey has slowed considerably compared with its relatively steady growth in the late 1980s through the 1990s. As of the second quarter of 2015, New Jersey?s total payroll employment was less than 1 percent greater than it was in the first quarter of 2000.