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Working Paper
Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails
Molloy, Raven S.; Smith, Christopher L.; Wozniak, Abigail (2022-01-28)
We examine how the distribution of employment tenure has changed in aggregate and for various demographic groups, drawing links to trends in job stability and satisfaction. The fraction of workers with short tenure (less than a year) has been falling since at least the mid-1990s, consistent with the decline in job changing documented over this period. The decline in short-tenure was widespread across demographic groups, industry, and occupation. It appears to be associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly-held jobs and coincides with an increase in perceived job security among short ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 056

Working Paper
The Assessment Gap: Racial Inequalities in Property Taxation
Howard, Troup; Avenancio-León, Carlos (2020-07-06)
We use panel data covering 118 million homes in the United States, merged with geolocation detail for 75,000 taxing entities, to document a nationwide "assessment gap" which leads local governments to place a disproportionate fiscal burden on racial and ethnic minorities. We show that holding jurisdictions and property tax rates fixed, black and Hispanic residents nonetheless face a 10-13% higher tax burden for the same bundle of public services. This assessment gap arises through two channels. First, property assessments are less sensitive to neighborhood attributes than market prices are. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 34

Working Paper
Multinationals, Monopsony, and Local Development: Evidence from the United Fruit Company
Van Patten, Diana; Méndez-Chacón, Esteban (2021-03-15)
This paper studies the short- and long-run effects of large firms on economic development. We use evidence from one of the largest multinationals of the 20th century: the United Fruit Company (UFCo). The firm was given a large land concession in Costa Rica—one of the so-called "Banana Republics"—from 1899 to 1984. Using administrative census data with census-block geo-references from 1973 to 2011, we implement a geographic regression discontinuity design that exploits a quasi-random assignment of land. We find that the firm had a positive and persistent effect on living standards. Company ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 46

Working Paper
Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter
Braxton, John Carter; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Rothbaum, Jonathan; Schmidt, Lawrence (2021-12-15)
For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? To answer these questions, we develop a filtering method that estimates parameters of an income process and recovers persistent and temporary earnings for every individual at every point in time. Our estimation flexibly allows for first and second moments of shocks to depend upon observables as well as spells of zero earnings (i.e., unemployment) and easily integrates into theoretical models. We apply our filter to a unique linkage of 23.5m SSA-CPS records. We first demonstrate that our earnings-based filter successfully captures observable shocks ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 55

Working Paper
Health Shocks, Health Insurance, Human Capital, and the Dynamics of Earnings and Health
Capatina, Elena; Keane, Michael P. (2023-11-15)
We specify and calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings incorporating health shocks and medical treatment decisions. Our model features endogenous wage formation via human capital accumulation, employer-sponsored health insurance, and means-tested social insurance. We use the model to study the effects of health shocks on health, labor supply and earnings, and to assess how health shocks contribute to earnings inequality. We also simulate provision of public insurance to agents who lack employer-sponsored insurance. The public insurance program substantially increases medical ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 080

Working Paper
College Access and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View
Herrington, Christopher; Hendricks, Lutz; Schoellman, Todd (2018-07-02)
We harmonize the results of 42 different data sets and studies dating back to the early 20th century to construct a time series of college attendance patterns for the United States. We find an important reversal around the time of World War II: before that time, family characteristics such as income were the better predictor of college attendance; afterwards, academic ability was the better predictor. We construct a model of college choice that can explain this reversal. The model's central mechanism is an exogenous rise in the demand for college that leads better colleges to become ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 10

Working Paper
Monetary Policy with Racial Inequality
Nakajima, Makoto (2023-04-19)
I develop a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model featuring racial inequality in income and wealth, and studies interactions between racial inequality and monetary policy. Black and Hispanic workers gain more from accommodative monetary policy than White workers mainly due to higher labor market risks. Their gains are larger also because of a larger proportion of them are hand-to-mouth, while wealthy White workers gain more from asset price appreciation. Monetary and fiscal policies are substitutes in providing insurance against cyclical labor market risks. Racial minorities gain even more ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 070

Working Paper
Spatial Wage Gaps in Frictional Labor Markets
Porzio, Tommaso; Heise, Sebastian (2019-12-23)
We develop a job ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and regions, and estimate it on matched employer-employee data to study the large and persistent real wage gap between East and West Germany. We find that the wage gap is mostly due to firms paying higher wages per efficiency unit in West Germany and quantify a rich set of frictions preventing worker reallocation across space and across firms. We find that three spatial barriers impede East Germans’ ability to migrate West: migration costs, a preference to live in the East, and fewer job opportunities received from the West. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 29

Working Paper
Family and Government Insurance: Wage, Earnings, and Income Risks in the Netherlands and the U.S.
Fella, Giulio; De Nardi, Mariacristina (2020-10-26)
We document new facts about risk in male wages and earnings, household earnings, and pre- and post-tax income in the Netherlands and the United States. We find that, in both countries, earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. Individual-level male wage and earnings risk is relatively high at the beginning and end of the working life, and for those in the lower and upper parts of the income distribution. Hours are the main driver of the negative skewness and, to a lesser extent, the high kurtosis of earnings changes. Even though we find no ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 42

Working Paper
Heterogeneous Workers and Federal Income Taxes in a Spatial Equilibrium
Hutchinson, Kevin; Colas, Mark (2017-11-14)
This paper studies the incidence and efficiency of a progressive income tax in a spatial equilibrium. We use US census data to estimate an empirical spatial equilibrium with heterogeneous workers, landowners, and firms. The US income tax shifts skilled workers out of high-productivity cities, leading to a deadweight loss of 2% of tax revenue. Flattening the tax schedule significantly increases welfare inequality between skilled and unskilled workers and does not increase overall worker welfare, as the efficiency gains are captured by landowners. This suggests that progressive income taxes ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 3

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