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Working Paper
Re‐assessing the Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis
Card, David; Rothstein, Jesse; Yi, Moises (2025-10-31)
We use detailed location information from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics (LEHD) database to develop new evidence on the effects of spatial mismatch on the relative earnings of Black workers in large US cities. We classify workplaces by the size of the pay premiums they offer in a two‐way fixed effects model, providing a simple metric for defining “good” jobs. We show that: (a) Black workers earn nearly the same average wage premiums as whites; (b) in most cities Black workers live closer to jobs, and closer to good jobs, than do whites; (c) Black workers typically ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 116

Working Paper
Dynamic Responses to Immigration
Colas, Mark (2018-01-29)
I analyze the dynamic effects of immigration by estimating an equilibrium model of local labor markets in the US. The model includes firms in multiple cities and sectors which combine capital, skilled and unskilled labor in production, and forward-looking workers who choose their sector and location each period as a dynamic discrete choice. A counterfactual unskilled immigration inflow leads to an initial wage drop for unskilled workers and a wage increase for skilled workers. These effects dissipate rapidly as unskilled workers migrate away from heavily affected cities and workers shift ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 6

Working Paper
The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences
Morchio, Iacopo; Moser, Christian (2023-09-06)
Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil, we document a large gender pay gap due to women working at lower-paying employers with better amenities. To interpret these facts, we develop an equilibrium search model with endogenous firm pay, amenities, and employment. We provide a constructive proof of identification of all model parameters. The estimated model suggests that amenities are important for men and women, that compensating differentials explain half of the gender pay gap, and that there are significant output and welfare gains from eliminating gender differences. However, ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 078

Working Paper
Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest
Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman G.; Whitefield, Alexander (2024-08-05)
We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the “defund the police” movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of police-affiliated firms. In our survey experiment, laypeople and finance professionals predicted more negative stock price outcomes when they lacked details on the products supplied by such firms. Exposure to narratives about the context of the protests further reduced the prediction accuracy of these ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 096

Working Paper
New Technologies and Jobs in Europe
Albanesi, Stefania; Jimeno, Juan F.; Lamo, Ana; Dias da Silva, António; Wabitsch, Alena (2024-11-18)
We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011-2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level, we find that on average employment shares have increased in occupations more exposed to AI. This is particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, only very few countries show a decline in employment shares of occupations more exposed to AI-enabled automation. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 105

Working Paper
Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality
Moser, Christian; Saidi, Farzad; Wirth, Benjamin; Wolter, Stefanie (2026-05-22)
We study the distributional consequences of monetary policy-induced credit supply in the German labor market. Firms in relationships with banks that are more exposed to the introduction of negative interest rates in 2014 experience a relative contraction in credit supply, associated with lower average wages. Within firms, initially lower-paid workers are more likely to leave employment, while initially higher-paid workers see a relative decline in wages. Between firms, wages fall by more at initially higher-paying employers. Our results suggest that credit affects the distribution of wages ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 128

Working Paper
The City Paradox: Skilled Services and Remote Work
Althoff, Lukas; Ganapati, Sharat; Walsh, Conor; Eckert, Fabian (2020-12-03)
Large cities in the US are the most expensive places to live. Paradoxically, this cost is paid disproportionately by workers who could work remotely, and live anywhere. The greater potential for remote work in large cities is mostly accounted for by their specialization in skill- and information-intensive service industries. We highlight that this specialization makes these cities vulnerable to remote work shocks. When high-skill workers begin to work from home or leave the city altogether, they withdraw spending from local consumer service industries that rely heavily on their demand. As a ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 43

Working Paper
Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil
Engbom, Niklas; Moser, Christian (2018-03-12)
We show that an increase in the minimum wage can have large effects throughout the earnings distribution, using a combination of theory and evidence. To this end, we develop an equilibrium search model featuring empirically relevant worker and firm heterogeneity. The minimum wage induces firms to adjust their equilibrium wage and vacancy policies, leading to spillovers on higher wages. We use the estimated model to evaluate the effects of a 119 percent increase in the real minimum wage in Brazil from 1996 to 2012. The policy change explains a large decline in earnings inequality, with ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 7

Working Paper
Why Is Mommy So Stressed? Estimating the Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Parental Attachment to the Labor Market and the Double Bind of Mothers
Heggeness, Misty (2020-06-19)
I examine the impact of the COVID-19 shock on parents’ labor supply during the initial stages of the pandemic. Using difference-in-difference approaches and monthly panel data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), I compare labor market attachment, non-work activity, hours worked, and earnings and wages of those in areas with early school closures and stay-in-place orders with those in areas with delayed or no pandemic closures. While there was no immediate impact on detachment or unemployment, mothers with jobs in early closure states were 53.2 percent more likely than mothers in late ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 33

Working Paper
Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
Guler, Bulent; Michaud, Amanda M. (2024-10-15)
We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 101

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