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Journal Article
Examining the Recent Shift in State and Local Pension Plans to Alternative Investments
State and local pension plans have increasingly turned to alternative investments in recent years. The authors found that this shift appears to be across the board; underfunding only partially explains this shift. In addition, they found that switching to alternative investments does not necessarily increase the volatility of returns.
Journal Article
Evolving market perceptions of Federal Reserve policy objectives
Journal Article
How Many Reserves Does the Federal Reserve Need to Supply?
The level of reserves the Federal Reserve needs to supply depends on the spread between the federal funds rate and the IOR rate. If policymakers choose to operate with a near-zero federal funds-IOR spread, then reserve balances of $1.5 trillion may be required to implement monetary policy. However, if policymakers opt for a higher federal funds-IOR spread, then reserve balances of about $1.1 trillion may suffice.
Journal Article
Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the Summary of Economic Projections
George A. Kahn and Andrew Palmer assess how FOMC participants' projections that policy would lift off from its effective lower bound related to their projections for inflation and unemployment.
Journal Article
The effect of the U.S. energy boom on the trade deficit
Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie predict the real energy trade deficit will decline at a much slower pace in 2015 than in the past few years.
Journal Article
Tracking Consumer Credit Trends
Troy Davig and William Xu find that a larger share of consumers with low credit scores are increasing their debt than those with high credit scores.
Journal Article
Trends in the Labor Share Post-2000
The labor share of income declined sharply in the United States from 2000 to 2010 but seems to have stabilized since 2010. We examine aggregate trends in the labor share and show that the 2000?10 decline was driven by declines in the fraction of income paid to workers in all industries. The stabilization in the labor share after 2010 mostly reflects an increased share of services industries income paid to workers.
Journal Article
Has forward guidance been effective?
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects.
Journal Article
Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit
Troy Davig and Michael Redmond gauge the contributions of three factors to the declining U.S. federal budget deficit.