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Journal Article
Confident about quitting: job leavers and labor market optimism
Xu, William; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2015-06-08)
Mustre-del-Ro and Xu compare two measures of voluntary turnover and find job quitters have recently become more optimistic about their employment opportunities.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Has forward guidance been effective?
Smith, Andrew Lee; Becker, Thealexa (2015-09-04)
A. Lee Smith and Thealexa Becker compare forward guidance announcements with changes in the effective federal funds rate and find the two policy measures have had similar macroeconomic effects.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Do Changes in the Stock Market Affect Consumer and Business Confidence?
Van Zandweghe, Willem (2019-01-09)
I find that measures of consumer and business confidence respond to stock market surprises. My evidence points to a confidence channel from financial conditions to the real economy. By signaling strong future incomes and profits, high equity valuations boost consumer and business confidence, which in turn stimulates real spending today. These relationships highlight a risk that the recent stock market decline could sap confidence, with adverse effects on real activity.
Macro Bulletin , Issue January 9, 2019 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Tracking Consumer Credit Trends
Xu, William; Davig, Troy A. (2016-08-23)
Troy Davig and William Xu find that a larger share of consumers with low credit scores are increasing their debt than those with high credit scores.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?
Pollard, Emily; Herriford, Trenton; Smith, Andrew Lee; Bundick, Brent (2017-06-21)
Households have lowered their longer-term inflation outlooks, but they appear confident in the FOMC?s ability to achieve stable prices.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Are Rising, but Mostly among Subprime Borrowers
Tousey, Colton; Brown, Jason (2018-08-15)
Steady increases in U.S. auto debt over the past seven years have raised concerns over credit quality and delinquency in consumers' repayment. We investigate these concerns and find that the credit quality of auto debt has actually improved throughout the current expansion. Delinquency rates have been rising mostly among subprime borrowers, who represent about a quarter of total outstanding auto debt. However, the potential risks to the financial sector are currently unknown and warrant close monitoring.
Macro Bulletin , Issue August 15, 2018 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Understanding Hawks and Doves
Oksol, Amy; Kahn, George A. (2018-06-27)
How do hawks and doves on the Federal Open Market Committee differ in their views of appropriate monetary policy and their related projections for inflation and unemployment? We find that hawks project higher inflation despite building tighter policy paths into their projections. Doves project lower inflation despite having easier policy paths, although their projections are somewhat closer to the median. In addition, hawks see a steeper inflation-unemployment tradeoff than doves up to a one-year horizon.
Macro Bulletin , Issue June 27, 2018 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Global capital flows from China
Sly, Nicholas; Nie, Jun (2015-09-08)
Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly examine recent trends in capital flows from China and the implications for the United States.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit
Sly, Nicholas; Hakkio, Craig S. (2016-09-12)
Hakkio and Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Revamping the Kansas City Financial Stress Index Using the Treasury Repo Rate
Cook, Thomas R.; Doh, Taeyoung (2018-10-24)
The Kansas City Financial Stress Index (KCFSI) uses the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) to measure money market borrowing conditions. But regulatory changes in the United Kingdom will eliminate LIBOR by 2021. We construct a revised financial stress index with a variable that measures the cost of borrowing collateralized by Treasury securities (the Treasury repo rate) instead of LIBOR. {{p}} This revised measure of the KCFSI is highly correlated with the current KCFSI, suggesting the Treasury repo rate can replace LIBOR.
Macro Bulletin , Issue October 24, 2018 , Pages 1-2

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