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Working Paper
Corporate Debt Maturity and Business Cycle Fluctuations
Prestipino, Andrea; Schott, Immo; Ferrante, Francesco
(2025-05-27)
Long-term debt is the main source of firm-financing in the U.S. We show that accounting for debt maturity is crucial for understanding business cycle dynamics. We develop a macroeconomic model with defaultable long-term debt and equity adjustment costs. With long-term debt, firms have an incentive to increase leverage in order to dilute the value of outstanding debt. When equity issuance is costly, this incentive helps firms raise more debt through a debt dilution channel and mitigates the decline in net worth through a balance sheet channel, dampening the decline in investment in response to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1409
Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy
de Soyres, Francois; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Richards, Keith; Airaudo, Florencia S.
(2025-05-14)
Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1408
Working Paper
Optimal Credit Market Policy
Iacoviello, Matteo; Prestipino, Andrea; Nunes, Ricardo
(2025-05-09)
We study optimal credit market policy in a stochastic, quantitative, general equilibrium, infinite-horizon economy with collateral constraints tied to housing prices. Collateral constraints yield a competitive equilibrium that is Pareto inefficient. Taxing housing in good states and subsidizing it in recessions leads to a Pareto-improving allocation for borrowers and savers. Quantitatively, the welfare gains afforded by the optimal tax are significant. The optimal tax reduces the covariance of collateral prices with consumption, and, by doing so, it increases asset prices on average, thus ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1406
Working Paper
Measuring Shortages since 1900
Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo; Yu, David
(2025-05-09)
This paper introduces a monthly shortage index spanning 1900 to the present, constructed from 25 million newspaper articles. The index captures shortages across industry, labor, food, and energy, and spikes during economic crises and wars. We validate the index and show that it provides information beyond traditional macroeconomic indicators. Using predictive regressions, we find that shortages are associated with persistently high inflation and lower economic activity. A structural VAR model reveals that, compared to a traditional supply shock, surprise movements in shortages produce less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1407
Working Paper
Transformative and Subsistence Entrepreneurs: Origins and Impacts on Economic Growth
Pearce, Jeremy; Prato, Marta; Alp, Harun; Akcigit, Ufuk
(2025-06-26)
This paper explores the symbiotic relationship between transformative entrepreneurs and inventors, which is crucial for economic growth. We utilize microdata from Denmark to demonstrate that while the relationship between IQ and general entrepreneurship tends to be negative, it is strongly positive among transformative entrepreneurs. Transformative entrepreneurs, often with higher IQ and education levels, significantly drive R&D and business growth, thereby providing substantial opportunities for inventors. In contrast, average entrepreneurs are more influenced by their family's ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1410
Working Paper
Breaking Up: Fragmentation in Foreign Direct Investment
Kallen, Cody
(2025-07-16)
Rising geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities have driven recent fragmentation of foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper provides systematic evidence of FDI fragmentation along ideological and geographic lines across five dimensions: shifting away from ideologically distant countries (ideological sorting), prioritizing politically aligned countries (friendshoring), reducing exposure to specific high-risk countries (derisking), moving production closer to the home country (nearshoring), and returning investment to the home country (reshoring). Measures of FDI based on ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1413
Working Paper
Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators
Haag, Alex; Garcia-Cabo, Joaquin; Fisgin, Ece; Lott, Mitch
(2025-08-13)
We present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forward-looking direction of the euro-area labor market, respectively, and demonstrate superior forecasting performance compared to existing indicators. Crucially, we find significant implications for monetary policy design: a local projection analysis reveals that ECB monetary policy shocks have attenuated effects on both inflation and unemployment ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1415
Working Paper
Food, Fuel, and Facts: Distributional Effects of Global Price Shocks
Bhattarai, Saroj; Chatterjee, Arpita; Udupa, Gautham
(2025-08-01)
We estimate distributional implications of global food and oil price shocks by utilizing monthly panel data on consumption and income from India, and an IV strategy that removes variation coming from global demand shocks. While both shocks lead to stagflationary aggregate dynamics, they differ in terms of distributional consequences. Consumption of lower income deciles is affected more by exogenous increases in food prices, while consumption of both tails of the income distribution is affected similarly by exogenous increases in oil prices. These heterogeneous negative consumption responses ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1414
Working Paper
Geopolitical Risk and Global Banking
Niepmann, Friederike; Shen, Leslie Sheng
(2025-08-27)
How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those markets through foreign affiliatesâ unlike their response to other macro risks. Furthermore, banks reduce domestic lending when geopolitical risk rises abroad, especially when they operate foreign affiliates. A simple banking model in which geopolitical shocks feature expropriation risk can explain these ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1418
Working Paper
Real Exchange Rate and Net Trade Dynamics: Financial and Trade Shocks
Mac Mullen, Marcos; Woo, Soo Kyung
(2025-08-27)
This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively. We develop a generalization of the standard international business cycle model that successfully rationalizes the joint dynamics of the RER and NT while accounting for the major puzzles of the RER. We find that, while financial shocks are necessary to capture high frequency variation in ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1419
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N42 1 items
O1 1 items
O12 1 items
O14 1 items
O15 1 items
O17 1 items
O18 1 items
O33 1 items
O38 1 items
O42 1 items
O43 1 items
O50 1 items
O51 1 items
O54 1 items
P16 1 items
Q41 1 items
Q51 1 items
R10 1 items
R11 1 items
R13 1 items
R31 1 items
R33 1 items
R41 1 items
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