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Working Paper
Transitional dynamics of output and factor income shares: lessons from East Germany
Cociuba, Simona E.
(2010)
I evaluate the quantitative implications of technology change and government policies for output and factor income shares during East Germany's transition since 1990. I model an economy that gains access to a high productivity technology embodied in new plants. As existing low productivity plants decrease production, the capital income share varies due to variation in the profit share of these plants. Two policies - transfers and government-mandated wage increases - have opposite effects on output growth, but both contribute to reducing the capital share during the transition. The model's ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 43
Working Paper
Should monetary policy \"lean or clean\"?
White, William R.
(2009)
It has been contended by many in the central banking community that monetary policy would not be effective in "leaning" against the upswing of a credit cycle (the boom) but that lower interest rates would be effective in "cleaning" up (the bust) afterwards. In this paper, these two propositions (can't lean, but can clean) are examined and found seriously deficient. In particular, it is contended in this paper that monetary policies designed solely to deal with short term problems of insufficient demand could make medium term problems worse by encouraging a buildup of debt that cannot be ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 34
Working Paper
Currency blocs in the 21st century
Fischer, Christoph
(2011)
Based on a classification of countries and territories according to their regime and anchor currency choice, the study considers the two major currency blocs of the present world. A nested logit regression suggests that long-term structural economic variables determine a given country's currency bloc affiliation. The dollar bloc differs from the euro bloc in that there exists a group of countries that peg temporarily to the U.S. dollar without having close economic affinities with the bloc. The estimated parameters are consistent with an additive random utility model interpretation. A ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 87
Working Paper
Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields
Hara, Naoko; Fatum, Rasmus; Yamamoto, Yohei
(2019-01-27)
We consider the influence of domestic and U.S. macroeconomic news surprises on daily bond yields over the January 1999 to January 2018 period for four advanced Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) economies ? Germany, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. Our results suggest that the influence of macroeconomic news surprises is for all four countries under study during the NIRP period non-existent or noticeably weaker than during the preceding Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) period. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that NIRP is characterized by a lower bound that is no less ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 354
Working Paper
Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad
(2023-01-18)
This paper is concerned with the problem of variable selection when the marginal effects of signals on the target variable as well as the correlation of the covariates in the active set are allowed to vary over time, without committing to any particular model of parameter instabilities. It poses the issue of whether weighted or unweighted observations should be used at the variable selection stage in the presence of parameter instability, particularly when the number of potential covariates is large. Amongst the extant variable selection approaches, we focus on the One Covariate at a time ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 394
Working Paper
Monetary policy, capital inflows, and the housing boom
Wieladek, Tomasz; Sa, Filipa
(2011)
We estimate an open economy VAR model to quantify the effect of monetary policy and capital inflows shocks on the US housing market. The shocks are identified with sign restrictions derived from a standard DSGE model. We find that monetary policy shocks have a limited effect on house prices and residential investment. In contrast, capital inflows shocks driven by an increase in foreign savings have a positive and persistent effect on both housing variables. Other sources of capital inflows shocks, such as foreign monetary expansion or an increase in aggregate demand in the US, have a more ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 80
Working Paper
Technology Choice and the Long- and Short-Run Armington Elasticity
Cooke, Dudley
(2019-11-22)
This paper studies the international transmission of productivity shocks when the Armington elasticity is endogenized through firms' technology choice. With costly adjustment, technology choice allows for a low short-run elasticity and a high long-run elasticity. I provide analytical results which demonstrate how technology choice provides a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle - the observed negative correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate. I then embed technology choice in a quantitative model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and endogenous producer ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 373
Working Paper
Flipping the Housing Market
Tse, Chung-Yi; Leung, Charles Ka Yui
(2017-01-01)
We add arbitraging middlemen -- investors who attempt to profit from buying low and selling high -- to a canonical housing market search model. Flipping tends to take place in sluggish and tight, but not in moderate, markets. There is the possibility of multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium, most, if not all, transactions are intermediated, resulting in rapid turnover, a high vacancy rate, and high housing prices. In another equilibrium, few houses are bought and sold by middlemen. Turnover is slow, few houses are vacant, and prices are moderate. Moreover, flippers can enter and exit en ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 301
Working Paper
Technical note on "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?"
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Sondergaard, Jens
(2008)
This technical note is developed in part as a mathematical companion to the paper ?The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?? (GMPI working paper no. 17). Our two-country model incorporates capital accumulation with adjustment costs, variable capital utilization and investment-specific technological shocks. Nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition distort the goods markets of each country and allow monetary policy to have real effects. We investigate two different international pricing scenarios, local-currency pricing (where the law of one price fails) and ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 16
Working Paper
An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity
Balke, Nathan S.; YĆ¼cel, Mine K.; Brown, Stephen P. A.
(2008)
The effect of oil price shocks on U.S. economic activity seems to have changed since the mid-1990s. A variety of explanations have been offered for the seeming change?including better luck, the reduced energy intensity of the U.S. economy, a more flexible economy, more experience with oil price shocks and better monetary policy. These explanations point to a weakening of the relationship between oil prices shocks and economic activity rather than the fundamentally different response that may be evident since the mid-1990s.> ; Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 20
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sovereign defaults 2 items
spillovers 2 items
structural changes 2 items
sudden stops 2 items
survey-based forecasts 2 items
tariffs 2 items
terms of trade 2 items
threshold effects 2 items
two-way long-run causality 2 items
zoning 2 items
Bailouts 2 items
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Capital accumulation 2 items
Dynamics 2 items
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Economic growth 2 items
Emerging markets 2 items
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International Business Cycles 2 items
Money 2 items
Price 2 items
(non-oil) real income shocks 1 items
Adverse selection 1 items
Arab World 1 items
Armington Elasticity 1 items
BEER 1 items
Backus-Smith Puzzle 1 items
Bank notes 1 items
Bankruptcy 1 items
Banks and banking 1 items
Barriers to technology adoption 1 items
Basel III 1 items
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Bayesian inference 1 items
Bond Yields 1 items
Bonds 1 items
Bonds - Prices 1 items
Business Cycle Propagation 1 items
CO2 emission 1 items
Capital tax rate 1 items
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Central Bank Swap Lines 1 items
Colombia 1 items
Computational methods 1 items
Consumer behavior 1 items
Consumer price 1 items
Current account adjustment 1 items
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Debts, External 1 items
Dellas model 1 items
Demand for money 1 items
Demographics 1 items
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Dynamic Factor Model 1 items
Dynamic Panel Logit Model 1 items
EA and U.S. external adjustment 1 items
ENSO events 1 items
Economic conditions - Canada 1 items
Education 1 items
Emigrant remittances 1 items
Endogenous grid 1 items
Energy Prices 1 items
Energy innovation 1 items
Entry 1 items
Entry costs 1 items
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Euro Area 1 items
Euro area sovereign bond market 1 items
Evolutionary Games 1 items
Exchange Rate Pass-Through 1 items
Exit 1 items
Expectations Channel 1 items
Expectations-Driven Business Cycles 1 items
Exporting 1 items
FAVAR model 1 items
Financial Accelerator 1 items
Financial Crisis 1 items
Financial Spillovers 1 items
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Finite sample performance 1 items
Finite-Order Vector Autoregressive Representation 1 items
Flattening the Curve 1 items
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting 1 items
Forecast Data 1 items
Foreign 1 items
General equilibrium models 1 items
Global Financial Crisis 2007ā09 1 items
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Global Slack 1 items
Global VAR (GVAR) approach 1 items
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Global Vector Autoregressions 1 items
Global and regional business cycles 1 items
Google Mobility 1 items
Great Moderation 1 items
Green energy 1 items
Heterogeneous agents 1 items
Hours of labor 1 items
Households - Economic aspects 1 items
Housing market 1 items
Immigrants 1 items
Income distribution 1 items
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Inflation targeting 1 items
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Interest rates - Japan 1 items
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International 1 items
International Housing Markets 1 items
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Japan 1 items
Labor economics 1 items
Lasso 1 items
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Macroeconomic News 1 items
Maquiladora 1 items
Markov Switching 1 items
Mean Group Estimator 1 items
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Middle East 1 items
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NIRP 1 items
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News Shocks 1 items
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North Africa 1 items
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Official debt 1 items
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Open Economy Model 1 items
Paris Club 1 items
Pass-through 1 items
Penalized Maximum Likelihood 1 items
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Policy Response Stringency 1 items
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Production (Economic theory) 1 items
Productivity - Canada 1 items
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Recessions 1 items
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Regulation 1 items
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SSA countries 1 items
Saving and investment 1 items
Sector Biased Productivity Growth 1 items
Small Open Economy Model 1 items
Societal aging 1 items
Sparse Estimation 1 items
Stochastic analysis 1 items
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Stylized facts 1 items
TGVAR 1 items
Tariff 1 items
Technology - Economic aspects 1 items
Technology Choice 1 items
Technology News Shock 1 items
Technology Shock 1 items
Threshold-augmented Global VAR (TGVAR) 1 items
Time iteration 1 items
Time-Varying Money Demand 1 items
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Transition dynamics 1 items
Treatment Effect 1 items
Trilemma 1 items
U.S. shocks 1 items
U.S. state and metro employment fluctuations 1 items
VAR models 1 items
VECM 1 items
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Welfare Cost of Inflation 1 items
Welfare gains 1 items
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Zero lower bound 1 items
accounting 1 items
adaptation 1 items
aggregate shocks 1 items
arbitrage conditions 1 items
asset-based tokens 1 items
auditing 1 items
balance sheet policies 1 items
bank crises 1 items
bitcoin 1 items
boom-bust cycles 1 items
budget transparency 1 items
business cycle fluctuations 1 items
business cycle frequency 1 items
business cycles in closed and open economies 1 items
capital 1 items
capital inflows and outflows 1 items
carbon tax 1 items
central bank digital currencies 1 items
cointegration 1 items
commodities 1 items
commodity markets 1 items
compliance 1 items
conditional Value-at-Risk 1 items
consensus 1 items
correlated random effects model 1 items
counterfactual analysis 1 items
credit supply 1 items
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debt elasticity 1 items
debt financing 1 items
digital currencies 1 items
dollar 1 items
dynamic panel data model 1 items
economic conditions - United States 1 items
economic consensus 1 items
economic finality 1 items
economic integration 1 items
effective lower bound 1 items
efficiency 1 items
employment loss 1 items
episodic cointegration 1 items
equity investment 1 items
estimated trade elasticities 1 items
estimation and inference 1 items
ethereum 1 items
exchange 1 items
expert forecast 1 items
exposed population 1 items
factor-augmented VARs 1 items
financial centers 1 items
financial frictions 1 items
fintech 1 items
firm networks 1 items
fiscal institutions 1 items
fiscal rules 1 items
fiscal sustainability 1 items
fixed-income markets 1 items
forecast performance 1 items
foreign exchange interventions 1 items
foreign reserves 1 items
gains from trade 1 items
global capital flows cycle 1 items
global volatility 1 items
gross and net capital flows 1 items
history of money 1 items
house prices 1 items
housing demand 1 items
housing market variables 1 items
housing price bubbles 1 items
human capital 1 items
identification of global and country specific shocks 1 items
industry 1 items
input-output 1 items
input-output linkages 1 items
interest rate parity condition 1 items
international fiscal spillovers 1 items
international price dispersion 1 items
international spillovers 1 items
investment 1 items
investment analysis 1 items
labor 1 items
large open economy 1 items
levels 1 items
liquidity traps 1 items
macro-housing-finance linkage 1 items
macroprudential 1 items
manufacturing 1 items
market forecast 1 items
measurement errors 1 items
migration 1 items
mildly explosive behavior 1 items
monetary policy autonomy 1 items
monetary unions 1 items
multi-sector trade 1 items
non-linear DSGE models 1 items
oil curse 1 items
oil exporters 1 items
oil price shocks 1 items
optimal inflation rates 1 items
optimization 1 items
output growth 1 items
panel VAR model with exogenous variables 1 items
panel estimation method 1 items
parameter instability 1 items
permissioned DLT 1 items
persistence 1 items
precautionary demand 1 items
price competitiveness 1 items
privacy 1 items
productivity approach 1 items
proportionality 1 items
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