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Working Paper
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
Chen, Kaiji; Zha, Tao
(2015-08-01)
We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy. Second, we use the unique micro-banking data to identify and support the model's key mechanism. Third, we find that the output effect of credit supply shocks is not only economically and statistically significant but also consistent with the vector autogression evidence. Our mode estimation indicates ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2015-8
Working Paper
Technological change in large U.S. commercial banks
Hunter, William C.; Timme, Stephen G.
(1988)
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 88-6
Working Paper
Discussion of Preston, \"Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter\"
Honkapohja, Seppo
(2003)
The design of interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy have recently been examined for two key concerns. The first issue is determinacy of equilibria. Indeterminacy (multiplicity of stationary rational expectations equilibria) is a concern in models of monopolistic competition and price stickiness are currently a popular framework for the study of monetary policy. The second issue is stability of equilibria under adaptive learning. Some interest rate rules do not perform well when the expectations of the agents get out of equilibrium, e.g. as a result of structural shifts.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2003-19
Working Paper
Rational expectations and the dynamic adjustment of security analysts' forecasts to new information
Ackert, Lucy F.; Hunter, William C.
(1993)
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 93-9
Working Paper
Surveying Business Uncertainty
Meyer, Brent; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria
(2020-02-01)
We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over future sales growth, employment, and investment. In terms of data collection, we develop and field a new monthly panel Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU). The SBU began in 2014 and now covers about 1,750 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major nonfarm industry, and a range of firm sizes. We find ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2019-13
Working Paper
The information content of financial aggregates in Australia
Chandra, Naveen; Tallman, Ellis W.
(1996)
This paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting the subsequent behavior of real output and inflation. We employ vector autoregression (VAR) techniques to summarize the information in the data, providing evidence on the incremental forecasting value of financial aggregates for forecasting real output and inflation. The in-sample results suggest that there are only a few situations in which knowledge of the aggregates helps forecast real output and inflation. We then test the forecast performance of the VAR systems for two years out-of-sample in order ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 96-14
Working Paper
Concentrated shareholdings and the number of outside analysts
Smith, Stephen D.; Sabherwal, Sanjiv
(1999)
Assuming some fixed cost to information acquisition, diffuse shareholders in publicly held firms have little incentive to produce information that can substitute for the services of financial analysts. However, we argue that concentrated shareholdings, either by outsiders like institutions or by inside managers, reduce the demand for analyst services. The former group finds it worthwhile to produce its own information and avoid any moral hazard problems associated with analyst forecasts, while the concentration of shareholdings by insiders reduces the moral hazard problem associated with ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 99-7
Working Paper
Do borrower rights improve borrower outcomes? Evidence from the foreclosure process
Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Willen, Paul S.; Gerardi, Kristopher S.
(2011)
Many have argued that laws that give borrowers additional rights can help prevent unnecessary foreclosures by giving borrowers more time to cure their delinquencies or by facilitating workouts. We first compare states that allow power-of-sale foreclosures with states that do not and find that preventing power-of-sale foreclosures extends the foreclosure timeline dramatically but does not, in the long run, lead to fewer foreclosures. Borrowers in states that allow power-of-sale foreclosure are no less likely to cure and no less likely to renegotiate their loans. We then exploit a ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2011-16
Working Paper
Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax
Ilin, Elias; Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; Pitts, M. Melinda
(2022-06-29)
We develop, apply, and test a new measure of the marriage tax: the reduction in future spending from getting married. Our measure is a comprehensive, actuarial (expected) present value. It incorporates all major and most minor US tax and benefit programs, weighing the present value of additional net taxes from marrying along each marital survivor path by the path’s probability. And it assumes clone marriage—marrying oneself—to ensure the living-standard loss from marrying is unaffected by spousal choice. We calculate our marriage tax for young respondents using the Survey of Consumer ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2022-6
Working Paper
Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?
Rosensweig, Jeffrey A.; Tallman, Ellis W.
(1991)
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 91-2
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