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Discussion Paper
On the Ethics of Redistribution
Analysts of optimal policy often advocate for redistributive policies within developed economies using a behind-the-veil-of-ignorance criterion. Such analyses almost invariably ignore the effects of these policies on the well-being of people in poor countries. We argue that this approach is fundamentally misguided because it violates the criterion itself.
Discussion Paper
Competition and the Decline of the Rust Belt
The decline of the heavy manufacturing industry in the American ?Rust Belt? is often thought to have begun in the late 1970s, when the United States suffered a significant recession. But theory suggests, and data support, that the Rust Belt?s decline started in the 1950s when the region?s dominant industries faced virtually no product or labor competition and therefore had little incentive to innovate or become more productive. As foreign imports increased and manufacturing shifted to the American South, the Rust Belt?s share of manufacturing jobs and total jobs declined dramatically. ...
Discussion Paper
A Proposal to Eliminate the Distortions Caused by Bailouts
We argue that bailouts create tax distortions, subsidy distortions and debt-size externalities. We show that an orderly resolution provision as in the Dodd-Frank Act addresses the tax and subsidy distortions but not the debt-size externalities. A regulatory system that imposes limits on the debt-equity ratio of firms and imposes a Pigouvian tax on their size eliminates the distortions and completely corrects the externalities.
Discussion Paper
Improving the Analysis of Trade Policy
The standard model that economists use to analyze the impact of trade reforms systematically underpredicts changes in trade patterns. It not only underestimates overall trade magnitudes, but also fails to predict which industries experience the largest trade increases. This failure results from not accounting for rapid growth in post-liberalization trade of the products that these industries produce. {{p}} This paper documents these weaknesses and demonstrates an alternative methodology. {{p}} Our modified model performs better because it accounts for the rapid growth of trade in products ...
Discussion Paper
Thoughts on the Federal Reserve System's exit strategy
How can banks and similar institutions design optimal compensation systems? Would such systems conflict with the goals of society? This paper considers a theoretical framework of how banks structure job contracts with their employees to explore three points: the structure of a socially optimal compensation system; the structure of a compensation system that is privately optimal, given the reality of government-guaranteed bank debt; and policy interventions that can lead from the second structure to the first. Analysis reveals a potential policy option: providing proper incentives to banks by ...
Discussion Paper
Accounting for the Great Recession
Discussion Paper
Incentive compensation in the banking industry: insights from economic theory
How can banks and similar institutions design optimal compensation systems? Would such systems conflict with the goals of society? This paper considers a theoretical framework of how banks structure job contracts with their employees to explore three points: the structure of a socially optimal compensation system; the structure of a compensation system that is privately optimal, given the reality of government-guaranteed bank debt; and policy interventions that can lead from the second structure to the first. Analysis reveals a potential policy option: providing proper incentives to banks by ...
Discussion Paper
Should We Worry About Excess Reserves?
Banks in the United States have the potential to increase liquidity suddenly and significantly?from $12 trillion to $36 trillion in currency and easily accessed deposits?and could thereby cause sudden inflation. This is possible because the nation?s fractional banking system allows banks to convert excess reserves held at the Federal Reserve into bank loans at about a 10-to-1 ratio. Banks might engage in such conversion if they believe other banks are about to do so, in a manner similar to a bank run that generates a self-fulfilling prophecy. {{p}} Policymakers could guard against this ...
Discussion Paper
How Rich Will China Become?
China?s impressive economic growth since the 1980s raises the question of how much richer it will become over future decades. Its growing share of the world economy affects other national economies. Understanding the future course of the Chinese economy is therefore important for both fiscal and monetary policymaking in the United States and elsewhere. Using fundamental growth theory, data from China and from Korea and Japan?s similar ?miracle? growth experiences, we provide a suggestive calculation for China?s future per capita income. Our ballpark estimate is that China?s per capita income ...